131
FXUS61 KRLX 261736
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
136 PM EDT THU JUN 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
THE HEAT WAVE CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA, BUT EASES UP SLIGHTLY AS THE CHANCE FOR MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 130 PM THURSDAY...
WEATHER PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGE MUCH DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS UNDER
AN INFLUENCE OF A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND AT THE
UPPER LEVELS. ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY HIGH CAPE, HIGH PWATS,
AND LOW SHEAR MAY BE CONDUCIVE TO SEVERE DOWNBURSTS THROUGH
THIS EVENING. SPC MAINTAINS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS AS
AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. THE
MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
ANOTHER MUGGY NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S
LOWLANDS, RANGING INTO THE MID 70S NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. A
RENEGADE SHOWER OR TWO, OR A STORM MAY BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT, SO
KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. PATCHY VALLEY FOG MAY ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP ESPECIALLY OVER
AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAIN.
WITH SIMILAR ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS, EXPECT SIMILAR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, PERHAPS MORE CONCENTRATED
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. HOT TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL REACH THE LOW
TO MID 90S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS, RANGING INTO THE MID 70S NORTHEAST
MOUNTAINS. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S EXPECTED, HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL LIKELY REACH OR EXCEED THE 100 DEGREE MARK ACROSS
THE LOWLANDS. THEREFORE, WILL MAINTAIN A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THESE
AREAS FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH/RIDGE SLIDES EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS
FRIDAY NIGHT WEAKENING ITS INFLUENCE OVER OUR AREA. THIS COULD
MAINTAIN SHOWERS AND STORM ACTIVITY GOING FRIDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT IS ON TAP FRIDAY NIGHT, PROVIDING
LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT, ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE WITHOUT THE
BENEFIT OF AIR CONDITIONING.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 130 PM THURSDAY...
ON SATURDAY, CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS WILL STILL BE PRESENT WITH HIGH
CAPE, POOR DEEP LAYERED SHEAR AND HIGH PWATS. THE INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL ADD TO A PASSING SHORTWAVE ON SATURDAY,
ENHANCING CONVECTION TO STRONG TO SEVERE. SPC KEEPS THE ENTIRE AREA
UNDER A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE LESS INTENSE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY,
MAINLY NEARBY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO STALL NORTH OF THE
AREA. A BRIEF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EMERGES AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH
MONDAY. HOWEVER, MODELS SUGGEST DIURNAL CONVECTION STILL POSSIBLE.
WPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
FOR MONDAY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 130 PM THURSDAY...
MODELS BRING A COLD FRONT CROSSING EARLY TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. A HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND THE
FRONT, PROMOTING DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. CENTRAL GUIDANCE KEEPS HIGHS AROUND 90 AND LOWS AROUND 70
ACROSS THE LOWLANDS BY MONDAY, BEFORE BOTH TAIL OFF TOWARD
NORMAL HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 130 PM THURSDAY...
STARTING WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION ALREADY FIRING UP IN
THE VICINITY OF HTS. EXPECT THESE STORMS TO IMPACT HTS DIRECTLY
WITH IFR/LIFR VISIBILITY BOUNCING THROUGH AT LEAST 22Z.
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST INTO NE KY, SE OH
AND THE REST OF WV THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY
ANY STORM THROUGH THIS EVENING.
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR SOME TONIGHT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WILL BECOME CALM OVERNIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF THESE
INGREDIENTS WILL ALLOW FOR DENSE FOG FORMATION MAINLY ALONG
RIVER VALLEYS AND AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW SURFACE AND ALOFT TODAY WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM TONIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MODERATE.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY VARY FROM FORECAST.
FOG MAY FORM AT SITES IN ADDITION TO EKN LATE TONIGHT WHERE
RAIN OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
EDT 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS,
AND EARLY MORNING FOG, THROUGH MONDAY.
CLIMATE
AS OF 225 AM THURSDAY...
OBSERVED (AS OF 5PM WEDNESDAY) AND RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
JUNE 25:
KCRW: 95 103/1930
KHTS: 96 101/1921
KCKB: 94 96/1930
KPKB: 93 100/1988
KBKW: 89 91/1914
KEKN: 90 92/1914
FORECAST AND RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY:
JUNE 26:
KCRW: 93 99/1934
KHTS: 96 99/1954
KCKB: 92 96/1930
KPKB: 93 97/1952
KBKW: 88 93/1934
KEKN: 90 90/2005 <- TIE (OR BREAK) POSSIBLE
FORECAST HIGHS TREND FURTHER SHY OF RECORD HIGHS AFTER TODAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR WVZ024-025.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR WVZ005>011-
013>020-024>031.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
WVZ005>011-013>020-026>031.
OH...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ066-067-083-
084.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR OHZ066-067-075-
076-083>087.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ075-
076-085>087.
KY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ101-102-105.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR KYZ101>103-105.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ103.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...TRM/ARJ
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...ARJ
CLIMATE...TRM
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