414
FXUS61 KRLX 270116
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
916 PM EDT THU JUN 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
THE HEAT WAVE CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA, BUT EASES UP SLIGHTLY AS THE CHANCE FOR MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 8:30 PM THURSDAY...
MAIN CHANGE WAS TO UPDATE THE POPS TO REFLECT SOME HIGHER POPS
OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS, AND ALSO PUT IN SOME GUSTY WIND AND HEAVY RAIN WORDING
FOR THE WEATHER GRIDS THROUGH 04Z/MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE, NO MAJOR
CHANGES WERE MADE.
AS OF 130 PM THURSDAY...
WEATHER PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGE MUCH DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS UNDER
AN INFLUENCE OF A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND AT THE
UPPER LEVELS. ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY HIGH CAPE, HIGH PWATS,
AND LOW SHEAR MAY BE CONDUCIVE TO SEVERE DOWNBURSTS THROUGH
THIS EVENING. SPC MAINTAINS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS AS
AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. THE
MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
ANOTHER MUGGY NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S
LOWLANDS, RANGING INTO THE MID 70S NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. A
RENEGADE SHOWER OR TWO, OR A STORM MAY BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT, SO
KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. PATCHY VALLEY FOG MAY ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP ESPECIALLY OVER
AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAIN.
WITH SIMILAR ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS, EXPECT SIMILAR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, PERHAPS MORE CONCENTRATED
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. HOT TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL REACH THE LOW
TO MID 90S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS, RANGING INTO THE MID 70S NORTHEAST
MOUNTAINS. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S EXPECTED, HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL LIKELY REACH OR EXCEED THE 100 DEGREE MARK ACROSS
THE LOWLANDS. THEREFORE, WILL MAINTAIN A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THESE
AREAS FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH/RIDGE SLIDES EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS
FRIDAY NIGHT WEAKENING ITS INFLUENCE OVER OUR AREA. THIS COULD
MAINTAIN SHOWERS AND STORM ACTIVITY GOING FRIDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT IS ON TAP FRIDAY NIGHT, PROVIDING
LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT, ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE WITHOUT THE
BENEFIT OF AIR CONDITIONING.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 130 PM THURSDAY...
ON SATURDAY, CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS WILL STILL BE PRESENT WITH HIGH
CAPE, POOR DEEP LAYERED SHEAR AND HIGH PWATS. THE INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL ADD TO A PASSING SHORTWAVE ON SATURDAY,
ENHANCING CONVECTION TO STRONG TO SEVERE. SPC KEEPS THE ENTIRE AREA
UNDER A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE LESS INTENSE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY,
MAINLY NEARBY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO STALL NORTH OF THE
AREA. A BRIEF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EMERGES AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH
MONDAY. HOWEVER, MODELS SUGGEST DIURNAL CONVECTION STILL POSSIBLE.
WPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
FOR MONDAY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 130 PM THURSDAY...
MODELS BRING A COLD FRONT CROSSING EARLY TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. A HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND THE
FRONT, PROMOTING DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. CENTRAL GUIDANCE KEEPS HIGHS AROUND 90 AND LOWS AROUND 70
ACROSS THE LOWLANDS BY MONDAY, BEFORE BOTH TAIL OFF TOWARD
NORMAL HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 800 PM THURSDAY...
MAIN CHANGE WAS TO EXTEND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR SOME SITES
FOR A COUPLE HOURS AFTER 00Z, BUT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORING
FOR NEEDED AMDS AS THE SITUATION IS FLUID WITH WEAK STEERING
FLOW AND NUMEROUS COLLIDING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. THERE IS ALSO A
CHANCE THAT SOME ACTIVITY CURRENTLY OVER PBZS AREA COULD COME
CLOSE TO CLIPPING CKB, BUT NOT CONFIDENT ON THAT RIGHT NOW.
OTHERWISE, SHOULD CALM DOWN OVERNIGHT, WITH SOME FOG EXPECTED
AGAIN COURTESY OF THE HUMIDITY AND RECENT RAINS. EKN WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE THE PRIME RISK FOR HITTING IFR OR LIFR, BUT ALSO PUT
IN PREVAILING LOWER VISIBILITY FOR ALL OTHER TERMINALS EXCEPT
BKW. MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE ONCE MORE TOMORROW, AGAIN
WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN AS A RISK.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MODERATE.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF THUNDERSTORM DISSIPATION MAY
VARY FROM FORECAST. FOG FORMATION TIMING AND EXTENT MAY VARY
DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER AND RECENT RAINS.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE FRI 06/27/25
UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M L L L L M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H L L L M
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M L L M L M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M H
AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS,
AND EARLY MORNING FOG, THROUGH MONDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR WVZ005>011-
013>020-024>031.
OH...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR OHZ066-067-075-
076-083>087.
KY...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...FK/TRM/ARJ
NEAR TERM...FK/ARJ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...FK/ARJ
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