011
FXUS61 KRLX 272328
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
728 PM EDT FRI JUN 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
THE HEAT WAVE CONTINUES, EASING UP SLIGHTLY AS THE CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 100 PM FRIDAY...
KEY POINTS:
* HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH THIS EVENING. HEAT
ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS UNTIL THIS
EVENING.
* SUMMER THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING IN RESPONSE TO THE HUMIDITY AND THE INFLUENCE OF A NEARBY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
* A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES,
TO INCLUDE THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF WEST VIRGINIA
THROUGH 2 AM TONIGHT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, DUE TO DIURNAL HEATING, AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE
LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. CONVECTION THAT MANAGE TO DEVELOP WILL
BE SLOW-MOVING AND CAPABLE TO PRODUCE ROBUST RAINFALL RATES AND
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING PROBLEMS. MOST SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD
BEGIN TO DISSIPATE LATE THIS EVENING AS WE LOSE AFTERNOON HEATING.
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH AND STALLS CLOSER TO OUR NORTHEAST
MOUNTAINS TONIGHT, AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE/HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THESE
FEATURES WILL PROVIDE LESS CONVECTIVE SUPPRESSION, ALLOWING SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO LAST LONGER TONIGHT. THEREFORE, KEPT CHANCE POPS FOR
TONIGHT.
WPC SUGGESTS A BULLSEYE OF +1 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST
MOUNTAINS ENDING SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECTING SLOW-MOVING SHOWERS AND
STORMS, SOME WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN CAPABLE TO PRODUCE LOCALIZED WATER
PROBLEMS. THEREFORE, AFTER COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES,
ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES, TO INCLUDE
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF WV.
EXPECT ANOTHER MUGGY NIGHT WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS
THE LOWLANDS, RANGING INTO THE LOWER 60S NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. IT
WILL STILL BE HOT ON SATURDAY, BUT NOT AS OPPRESSIVE AS DURING THE
PREVIOUS DAYS. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
ANOTHER EPISODE OF SUMMER CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE ENHANCED BY AN
H500 SHORTWAVE CROSSING EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THEREFORE, ACCEPTED LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS FROM CENTRAL
GUIDANCE FOR THIS TIME FRAME. CAMS GUIDANCE SHOWS SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACTIVITY SPROUTING DURING THE AFTERNOON, AND DECAYING
DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS.
NIGHTTIME SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL STILL POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT DROPS FROM THE GREAT LAKES SOUTH, TO POSITION
JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 100 PM FRIDAY...
A STATIONARY FRONT TO OUR NORTH LIFTS NORTH SUNDAY MORNING, ALLOWING
FOR DRIER CONDITIONS DURING THE MORNING, BUT A SUMMER ENVIRONMENT
RETURNS TO THE AREA WITH AMPLE BUOYANCY, POOR DEEP LAYERED SHEAR,
AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THESE INGREDIENTS WILL PROMOTE ONCE
AGAIN SLOW-MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE TO PRODUCE
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN AND ASSOCIATED WATER PROBLEMS.
A DECREASE IN CLOUDS AND SHOWERS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY, ALONG WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. CONVECTION SHOULD BE MORE
ISOLATED IN NATURE, WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND LOCALIZED WATER ISSUES
POSSIBLE.
BY MONDAY, THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT, KEEPING UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS OVER OUR AREA, AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE
NEW COLD FRONT ARRIVES TO SE OHIO BY TUESDAY MORNING, SPREADING
SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG ITS PATH.
ALTHOUGH NO OTHER SYNOPTIC FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA
DIRECTLY, CAN NOT RULE OUR ISOLATED INSTANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER. THE
MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
DESPITE OF PLENTY OF MOISTURE, AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES OVER THE
WEEKEND WILL BE LESS HOTTER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS, PERHAPS IN THE LOW
TO MID 90S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. THEREFORE, BELIEVE HEAT INDEX VALUES
WILL STAY JUST BELOW CRITERIA DURING THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 100 PM FRIDAY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE NUMEROUS TUESDAY WITH A COLD
FRONT PASSAGE FOLLOWED BY A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE. PRECIPITATION
ACTIVITY GRADUALLY END AS THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSES EAST, EXITING
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
DRIER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED BY MID WEEK, PERHAPS WITH
LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN WV AND EXTREME
SOUTHWEST VA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT SEASONABLE OR ABOVE FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THIS PERIOD, HOWEVER IT WILL NOT BE AS HOT AS IT HAS PREVIOUSLY BEEN
AND APPARENT TEMPERATURES STAYING BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 726 PM FRIDAY...
THE MAIN CONCERN THIS EVENING CONTINUES TO BE ISOLATED, SLOW-
MOVING THUNDERSTORMS, WHICH CAN BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY
WINDS (30+ KTS) AND REDUCE VISIBILITY TO MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS.
THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS REACHING ANY OF THE TERMINALS THIS
EVENING APPEARS TO BE HIGHEST AT KPKB AND KEKN. TEMPO GROUPS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY WERE INCLUDED THROUGH 04Z
SATURDAY. ELSEWHERE, PROB30 GROUPS WERE INCLUDED THROUGH 04Z TO
CONVEY THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WITH REDUCED VISIBILITY AND GUSTY
WIND.
PATCHY DENSE FOG MAY OCCUR OVERNIGHT, WITH THE BEST CHANCE BEING
AT ANY LOCATIONS WHERE IT PREVIOUSLY RAINED TODAY. MVFR
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WERE INCLUDED AT KBKW AND KEKN OVERNIGHT
THROUGH 13Z SATURDAY.
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS CAN DEVELOP AGAIN SATURDAY MIDDAY INTO
THE AFTERNOON, BRINGING REDUCED VISIBILITY AND GUSTY WINDS.
VCTS WAS INCLUDED IN THE LATEST PACKAGE TO CONVEY THIS
POTENTIAL SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY VARY
FROM THE FORECAST. FOG MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT IN MORE SPOTS.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SAT 06/28/25
UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M M
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M L L L L
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS,
AND EARLY MORNING FOG, THROUGH MONDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR WVZ005>011-
013>020-024>031.
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR WVZ020-027>032-039-
040-515>526.
OH...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ066-067-075-
076-083>087.
KY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ARJ
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...JMC
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