014
FXUS61 KRLX 280453
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1253 AM EDT SAT JUN 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
THE HEAT WAVE CONTINUES, EASING UP SLIGHTLY AS THE CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 856 PM FRIDAY...
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR RALEIGH, FAYETTE,
NICHOLAS, AND CLAY COUNTIES. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER CANNOT
BE RULED OUT LATER THIS EVENING, WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NO
LONGER EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES
THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR NORTHEASTERN WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES DUE TO
A HIGHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS BRINGING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
AS OF 806 PM FRIDAY...
THE HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. THE FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK THIS EVENING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
AS OF 100 PM FRIDAY...
KEY POINTS:
* HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH THIS EVENING. HEAT
ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS UNTIL THIS
EVENING.
* SUMMER THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING IN RESPONSE TO THE HUMIDITY AND THE INFLUENCE OF A NEARBY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
* A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES,
TO INCLUDE THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF WEST VIRGINIA
THROUGH 2 AM TONIGHT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, DUE TO DIURNAL HEATING, AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE
LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. CONVECTION THAT MANAGE TO DEVELOP WILL
BE SLOW-MOVING AND CAPABLE TO PRODUCE ROBUST RAINFALL RATES AND
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING PROBLEMS. MOST SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD
BEGIN TO DISSIPATE LATE THIS EVENING AS WE LOSE AFTERNOON HEATING.
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH AND STALLS CLOSER TO OUR NORTHEAST
MOUNTAINS TONIGHT, AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE/HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THESE
FEATURES WILL PROVIDE LESS CONVECTIVE SUPPRESSION, ALLOWING SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO LAST LONGER TONIGHT. THEREFORE, KEPT CHANCE POPS FOR
TONIGHT.
WPC SUGGESTS A BULLSEYE OF +1 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST
MOUNTAINS ENDING SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECTING SLOW-MOVING SHOWERS AND
STORMS, SOME WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN CAPABLE TO PRODUCE LOCALIZED WATER
PROBLEMS. THEREFORE, AFTER COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES,
ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES, TO INCLUDE
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF WV.
EXPECT ANOTHER MUGGY NIGHT WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS
THE LOWLANDS, RANGING INTO THE LOWER 60S NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. IT
WILL STILL BE HOT ON SATURDAY, BUT NOT AS OPPRESSIVE AS DURING THE
PREVIOUS DAYS. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
ANOTHER EPISODE OF SUMMER CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE ENHANCED BY AN
H500 SHORTWAVE CROSSING EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THEREFORE, ACCEPTED LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS FROM CENTRAL
GUIDANCE FOR THIS TIME FRAME. CAMS GUIDANCE SHOWS SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACTIVITY SPROUTING DURING THE AFTERNOON, AND DECAYING
DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS.
NIGHTTIME SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL STILL POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT DROPS FROM THE GREAT LAKES SOUTH, TO POSITION
JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 100 AM SATURDAY...
FOR SUNDAY, EXPECT LESS CHANCES FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN. THERE WILL BE
OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH UP TO 2000 J/KG OF MU CAPE, HOWEVER WITH THE
LACK OF SHEAR AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES.
PWATS ARE JUST NEAR 2 INCHES STILL ALONG WITH LONG SKINNY CAPE
AND A FAIRLY MOIST COLUMN. NOT TO MENTION SUFFICIENT DCAPE.
LAPSE RATES FALL OFF QUICKLY BY LATE EVENING AND WITH VERY
MINIMAL INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD
CEASE BY LATE EVENING.
FOR MONDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES IN TO SUPPORT MORE
ACTIVITY DURING THE DAYTIME. THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE MORE
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY AND HIGHER PWATS
AND MORE MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN. WE HAVE SLIGHTLY MORE SHEAR TO
WORK WITH SO SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING FASTER, BUT HEAVY DOWNPOURS
AND STRONGER STORM POTENTIAL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. THERE
WILL BE HIGHER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED FEATURE SUPPORTS UNSETTLED WEATHER AND HIGHER
LAPSE RATES. MORE ACTIVITY WILL COME AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PROG
TO PASS THROUGH TUESDAY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 100 AM SATURDAY...
FOR TUESDAY, COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL TAKE PLACE DURING THE
DAYTIME. THIS FEATURE COULD POSE SOME HYDRO CONCERNS IF
MOVEMENT IS SLOW AS UPPER LEVEL STEERING FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE
WEAK. THE SEVERE THREAT IS FAR OUT AND WE COULD HAVE SOME
POTENTIAL IF THE COLD FRONT STRENGTHENS, BUT AS OF NOW IT LOOKS
TO BE A RELATIVELY WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY, BUT SLIDING THROUGH
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE, WITH MAXIMUM INSTABILITY
DURING THE AFTERNOON, WE MAY HAVE SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
ISOLATED STORM POTENTIAL.
THEREAFTER, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR A CLEAN BREAK FROM
UNSETTLED WEATHER GOING FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK UNTIL
FRIDAY WHEN CHANCES BEGIN TO MAKE AN APPEARANCE.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 726 PM FRIDAY...
THE MAIN CONCERN THIS EVENING CONTINUES TO BE ISOLATED, SLOW-
MOVING THUNDERSTORMS, WHICH CAN BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY
WINDS (30+ KTS) AND REDUCE VISIBILITY TO MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS.
THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS REACHING ANY OF THE TERMINALS THIS
EVENING APPEARS TO BE HIGHEST AT KPKB AND KEKN. TEMPO GROUPS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY WERE INCLUDED THROUGH 04Z
SATURDAY. ELSEWHERE, PROB30 GROUPS WERE INCLUDED THROUGH 04Z TO
CONVEY THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WITH REDUCED VISIBILITY AND GUSTY
WIND.
PATCHY DENSE FOG MAY OCCUR OVERNIGHT, WITH THE BEST CHANCE BEING
AT ANY LOCATIONS WHERE IT PREVIOUSLY RAINED TODAY. MVFR
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WERE INCLUDED AT KBKW AND KEKN OVERNIGHT
THROUGH 13Z SATURDAY.
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS CAN DEVELOP AGAIN SATURDAY MIDDAY INTO
THE AFTERNOON, BRINGING REDUCED VISIBILITY AND GUSTY WINDS.
VCTS WAS INCLUDED IN THE LATEST PACKAGE TO CONVEY THIS
POTENTIAL SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY VARY
FROM THE FORECAST. FOG MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT IN MORE SPOTS.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SAT 06/28/25
UTC 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
EDT 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M M H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H M L L L L M M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS,
AND EARLY MORNING FOG, THROUGH MONDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MEK/JZ
NEAR TERM...ARJ/JMC
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...JMC
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