463
FXUS61 KRLX 281040
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
640 AM EDT SAT JUN 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AMID THE ONGOING HEAT WAVE. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 210 AM SATURDAY...
RADAR ACTIVITY HAS WANED WITHIN OUR FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING, WITH THE BULK OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION NOW SHIFTING OFF
THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS. THIS LEAVES BEHIND POCKETS
OF RIVER VALLEY FOG ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE MEASURABLE
RAINFALL OCCURRED THIS PAST EVENING. FOG EROSION WILL QUICKLY
TAKE SHAPE AFTER SUNRISE.
ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY DAY WILL THEN BE ON TAP FOR TODAY WITH
REPEAT OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS STARTING THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT DRAPED
THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE SOUTH AND
EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY, THEN DRAPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
FRINGES OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS
WILL SERVE UP THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY MAKES EASTWARD PROGRESS, SOME OF WHICH
COULD GROW STRONG ENOUGH TO STIR UP DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE FORECAST TONIGHT WILL BECOME
PRIMARILY RADAR DRIVEN, AS LATE NIGHT CONVECTION COULD ATTEMPT
TO STAY PREVALENT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, ACCORDING TO A FEW
HI-RES MODEL SOLUTIONS IN RESPONSE TO THE NEARBY RESIDENCY OF
THE FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH HUMIDITY LEVELS
IMPOSING HEAT INDICES TO EXTEND BACK INTO THE UPPER 90S. WHILE
NOT AS OPPRESSIVE IN COMPARISON TO HEAT INDICES FROM THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS, A FEW LOCALIZED SPOTS REACHING THE TRIPLE DIGITS
CAN'T NECESSARILY BE RULED OUT. OVERALL CONDITIONS, HOWEVER,
WILL PRECLUDE CURRENT NOTIONS FOR ADDITIONAL HEAT ADVISORIES
WITH THE LATEST FORECAST UPDATE.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 100 AM SATURDAY...
FOR SUNDAY, EXPECT LESS CHANCES FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN. THERE WILL BE
OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH UP TO 2000 J/KG OF MU CAPE, HOWEVER WITH THE
LACK OF SHEAR AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES.
PWATS ARE JUST NEAR 2 INCHES STILL ALONG WITH LONG SKINNY CAPE
AND A FAIRLY MOIST COLUMN. NOT TO MENTION SUFFICIENT DCAPE.
LAPSE RATES FALL OFF QUICKLY BY LATE EVENING AND WITH VERY
MINIMAL INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD
CEASE BY LATE EVENING.
FOR MONDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES IN TO SUPPORT MORE
ACTIVITY DURING THE DAYTIME. THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE MORE
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY AND HIGHER PWATS
AND MORE MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN. WE HAVE SLIGHTLY MORE SHEAR TO
WORK WITH SO SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING FASTER, BUT HEAVY DOWNPOURS
AND STRONGER STORM POTENTIAL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. THERE
WILL BE HIGHER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED FEATURE SUPPORTS UNSETTLED WEATHER AND HIGHER
LAPSE RATES. MORE ACTIVITY WILL COME AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PROG
TO PASS THROUGH TUESDAY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 100 AM SATURDAY...
FOR TUESDAY, COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL TAKE PLACE DURING THE
DAYTIME. THIS FEATURE COULD POSE SOME HYDRO CONCERNS IF
MOVEMENT IS SLOW AS UPPER LEVEL STEERING FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE
WEAK. THE SEVERE THREAT IS FAR OUT AND WE COULD HAVE SOME
POTENTIAL IF THE COLD FRONT STRENGTHENS, BUT AS OF NOW IT LOOKS
TO BE A RELATIVELY WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY, BUT SLIDING THROUGH
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE, WITH MAXIMUM INSTABILITY
DURING THE AFTERNOON, WE MAY HAVE SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
ISOLATED STORM POTENTIAL.
THEREAFTER, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR A CLEAN BREAK FROM
UNSETTLED WEATHER GOING FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK UNTIL
FRIDAY WHEN CHANCES BEGIN TO MAKE AN APPEARANCE.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 640 AM SATURDAY...
EARLY MORNING FOG ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL ERODE QUICKLY
AFTER THE ISSUANCE OF THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE. AFTER A QUIET FEW
HOURS, ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AMID AN ENCROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND PREVAILING HOT AND MUGGY WEATHER. VCTS WAS
INCLUDED WITH THIS ISSUANCE AFTER 16Z ACROSS ALL SITES TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS POTENTIAL. THE EVENING FORECAST BECOMES
PRIMARILY RADAR DRIVEN, AS ONGOING CONVECTION COULD LINGER INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE HELP OF THE ADVANCING FRONT.
CALM WINDS TONIGHT, IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE NEARBY FRONT, WILL
POSE A HIGHER LIKELIHOOD FOR RIVER VALLEY FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE FOR LOCATIONS
THAT RECEIVE MEASURABLE RAINFALL WITH ACTIVITY LATER ON TODAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND INTENSITY OF SHOWERS/STORMS MAY
VARY FROM THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SAT 06/28/25
UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
EDT 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H M M H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY L L M L H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS,
AND EARLY MORNING FOG, THROUGH MONDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MEK/JZ
NEAR TERM...MEK
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...MEK
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