413
FXUS61 KRLX 281740
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
140 PM EDT SAT JUN 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AMID THE ONGOING HEAT WAVE. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY. BRIEF
HIGH PRESSURE WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 135 PM SATURDAY...
A COLD FRONT STALLS TO OUR NORTH THIS EVENING. AN UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT, CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS UP TO 2 INCHES, SBCAPE EXCEEDING
3,000 J/KG AND POOR DEEP LAYERED SHEAR WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT FOR
SLOW-MOVING AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. LOCALIZED WATER PROBLEMS MAY RESULT FROM REPETITIVE HEAVY
DOWNPOURS, OR VERY SLOW MOVING STORMS. CONVECTION MAY BE MORE ACTIVE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA NEARBY THE FRONT, AND OVER
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS THIS EVENING. SOME MODELS SHOW FEW RIPPLES OF
VORTICITY WITHIN A ZONAL FLOW AT H500 PASSING TONIGHT. SPC MAINTAINS
A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THESE AREAS THROUGH
THIS EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS.
THERE COULD BE A LULL IN PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, EXPECT LESS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ON SUNDAY.
A CLEAN ZONAL FLOW AT H500 WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER EPISODE OF
CONVECTION DRIVEN BY DIURNAL HEATING AND AMPLE MOISTURE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
IT WILL REMAIN MUGGY AT NIGHT WITH DEWPOINTS REACHING THE MID 70S
ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S AND AVAILABLE
MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE UPPER 90S ACROSS SOME
LOWLAND SPOTS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 135 PM SATURDAY...
THE FRONT REMAINS STATIONARY ACROSS OUR NORTH THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT,
AND THEN RELOCATES JUST NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA BY MONDAY. ITS VICINITY
WILL ENHANCE DIURNAL HEATING CONVECTION MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, WHILE A NEW COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MODELS
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS NEW COLD FRONT, ARRIVING
TO SE OH BY TUESDAY MORNING. CENTRAL GUIDANCE INCREASES POPS TO
CATEGORICAL MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED. FLOODING ISSUES MAY BE A CONCERN.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS WILL STILL FEEL LESS MUGGY THAN PREVIOUS
NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS,
RANGING INTO THE LOWER 60S NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. HOT TEMPERATURES
AROUND 90 DEGREES CAN BE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE ON TUESDAY DUE TO
ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS, COOLING SHOWERS AND A RELATIVELY FRESHER
AIRMASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS
THE LOWLANDS, RANGING INTO THE 60S HIGHER ELEVATIONS ON TUESDAY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 135 PM SATURDAY...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY PROVIDING
DRIER WEATHER CONDITIONS AND A RETURN OF HOT TEMPERATURES.
FORECAST WEATHER CHARTS SHOW ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVING TO OUR AREA
THURSDAY, CROSSING SLOWLY SOUTH INTO EARLY FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH, IT IS
STILL FAR OUT, ACCEPTED GENERAL GUIDANCE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION FOR NOW.
A GRADUAL WARM UP CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOWER 90S BY SATURDAY.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 640 AM SATURDAY...
EARLY MORNING FOG ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL ERODE QUICKLY
AFTER THE ISSUANCE OF THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE. AFTER A QUIET FEW
HOURS, ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AMID AN ENCROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND PREVAILING HOT AND MUGGY WEATHER. VCTS WAS
INCLUDED WITH THIS ISSUANCE AFTER 16Z ACROSS ALL SITES TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS POTENTIAL. THE EVENING FORECAST BECOMES
PRIMARILY RADAR DRIVEN, AS ONGOING CONVECTION COULD LINGER INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE HELP OF THE ADVANCING FRONT.
CALM WINDS TONIGHT, IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE NEARBY FRONT, WILL
POSE A HIGHER LIKELIHOOD FOR RIVER VALLEY FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE FOR LOCATIONS
THAT RECEIVE MEASURABLE RAINFALL WITH ACTIVITY LATER ON TODAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND INTENSITY OF SHOWERS/STORMS MAY
VARY FROM THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H L H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L
AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS,
AND EARLY MORNING FOG, THROUGH MONDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JZ
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...ARJ/JZ
LONG TERM...ARJ/JZ
AVIATION...ARJ
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