261
FXUS61 KRLX 290533
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
133 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AMID THE ONGOING HEAT WAVE. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY. BRIEF
HIGH PRESSURE WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
AS OF 645 PM SATURDAY...
MAIN CHANGE WAS TO UPDATE POPS BY BLENDING IN SOME NAMNEST, AS
IT SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE, THOUGH IT'S NOT PERFECT
EITHER. WILL LIKELY NEED TO MAKE ANOTHER UPDATE OR TWO THIS
EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS IN THE CONVECTION. ALSO
ADDED IN 'HEAVY RAIN' WORDING FOR THE WEATHER GRIDS THROUGH
MIDNIGHT, AND RESTRICTED FOG TO MORE VALLEY LOCATIONS.
AS OF 135 PM SATURDAY...
A COLD FRONT STALLS TO OUR NORTH THIS EVENING. AN UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT, CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS UP TO 2 INCHES, SBCAPE EXCEEDING
3,000 J/KG AND POOR DEEP LAYERED SHEAR WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT FOR
SLOW-MOVING AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. LOCALIZED WATER PROBLEMS MAY RESULT FROM REPETITIVE HEAVY
DOWNPOURS, OR VERY SLOW MOVING STORMS. CONVECTION MAY BE MORE ACTIVE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA NEARBY THE FRONT, AND OVER
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS THIS EVENING. SOME MODELS SHOW FEW RIPPLES OF
VORTICITY WITHIN A ZONAL FLOW AT H500 PASSING TONIGHT. SPC MAINTAINS
A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THESE AREAS THROUGH
THIS EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS.
THERE COULD BE A LULL IN PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, EXPECT LESS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ON SUNDAY.
A CLEAN ZONAL FLOW AT H500 WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER EPISODE OF
CONVECTION DRIVEN BY DIURNAL HEATING AND AMPLE MOISTURE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
IT WILL REMAIN MUGGY AT NIGHT WITH DEWPOINTS REACHING THE MID 70S
ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S AND AVAILABLE
MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE UPPER 90S ACROSS SOME
LOWLAND SPOTS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 135 PM SATURDAY...
THE FRONT REMAINS STATIONARY ACROSS OUR NORTH THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT,
AND THEN RELOCATES JUST NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA BY MONDAY. ITS VICINITY
WILL ENHANCE DIURNAL HEATING CONVECTION MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, WHILE A NEW COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MODELS
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS NEW COLD FRONT, ARRIVING
TO SE OH BY TUESDAY MORNING. CENTRAL GUIDANCE INCREASES POPS TO
CATEGORICAL MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED. FLOODING ISSUES MAY BE A CONCERN.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS WILL STILL FEEL LESS MUGGY THAN PREVIOUS
NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS,
RANGING INTO THE LOWER 60S NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. HOT TEMPERATURES
AROUND 90 DEGREES CAN BE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE ON TUESDAY DUE TO
ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS, COOLING SHOWERS AND A RELATIVELY FRESHER
AIRMASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS
THE LOWLANDS, RANGING INTO THE 60S HIGHER ELEVATIONS ON TUESDAY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 135 PM SATURDAY...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY PROVIDING
DRIER WEATHER CONDITIONS AND A RETURN OF HOT TEMPERATURES.
FORECAST WEATHER CHARTS SHOW ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVING TO OUR AREA
THURSDAY, CROSSING SLOWLY SOUTH INTO EARLY FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH, IT IS
STILL FAR OUT, ACCEPTED GENERAL GUIDANCE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION FOR NOW.
A GRADUAL WARM UP CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOWER 90S BY SATURDAY.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 130 AM SUNDAY...
LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM THIS PAST EVENING HAVE
CONCLUDED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, YIELDING QUIET WEATHER
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. A NEARBY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED TO THE
NORTH, IN TANDEM WITH A PLETHORA OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FESTERING
OVER THE AREA, WILL SERVE UP POTENTIAL FOR RIVER VALLEY FOG
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. PUT MORE EMPHASIS FOR FOG AT TAF SITES
THAT PICKED UP PRECIPITATION EARLIER TODAY, BUT THAT COULD
REMAIN DEPENDENT UPON CLOUD COVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. ANY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL QUICKLY ERODE AFTER
SUNRISE.
THE FORECAST FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SUNDAY WILL FOLLOW A
SIMILAR PATTERN TO WHAT WE'VE SEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS, WITH
MORNING CONDITIONS REMAINING GENERALLY QUIET, THEN GROWING
ACTIVE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. BEST POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION IS SLATED ALONG
THE HIGHER TERRAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BUT A LOW END CHANCE FOR A
PASSING SHOWER/STORM IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR THE
LOWLANDS. A MENTION OF VICINITY THUNDER WAS INCLUDED ACROSS ALL
SITES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD. THE LATE EVENING
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST WILL BECOME PRIMARILY RADAR DRIVEN,
WITH POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING STORMS PAST SUNSET.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG COVERAGE AND TIMING TONIGHT MAY VARY
FROM THE FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SUN 06/29/25
UTC 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
EDT 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M H M H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M M H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H M H H L L H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H M H M L L L M H M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M M L L H H H H
AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS,
AND EARLY MORNING FOG, THROUGH MONDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...FK/ARJ
NEAR TERM...FK/ARJ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...MEK
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