611
FXUS61 KRLX 290608
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
208 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AMID THE ONGOING HEAT WAVE. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY. BRIEF
HIGH PRESSURE WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 645 PM SATURDAY...
MAIN CHANGE WAS TO UPDATE POPS BY BLENDING IN SOME NAMNEST, AS
IT SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE, THOUGH IT'S NOT PERFECT
EITHER. WILL LIKELY NEED TO MAKE ANOTHER UPDATE OR TWO THIS
EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS IN THE CONVECTION. ALSO
ADDED IN 'HEAVY RAIN' WORDING FOR THE WEATHER GRIDS THROUGH
MIDNIGHT, AND RESTRICTED FOG TO MORE VALLEY LOCATIONS.
AS OF 135 PM SATURDAY...
A COLD FRONT STALLS TO OUR NORTH THIS EVENING. AN UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT, CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS UP TO 2 INCHES, SBCAPE EXCEEDING
3,000 J/KG AND POOR DEEP LAYERED SHEAR WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT FOR
SLOW-MOVING AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. LOCALIZED WATER PROBLEMS MAY RESULT FROM REPETITIVE HEAVY
DOWNPOURS, OR VERY SLOW MOVING STORMS. CONVECTION MAY BE MORE ACTIVE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA NEARBY THE FRONT, AND OVER
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS THIS EVENING. SOME MODELS SHOW FEW RIPPLES OF
VORTICITY WITHIN A ZONAL FLOW AT H500 PASSING TONIGHT. SPC MAINTAINS
A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THESE AREAS THROUGH
THIS EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS.
THERE COULD BE A LULL IN PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, EXPECT LESS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ON SUNDAY.
A CLEAN ZONAL FLOW AT H500 WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER EPISODE OF
CONVECTION DRIVEN BY DIURNAL HEATING AND AMPLE MOISTURE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
IT WILL REMAIN MUGGY AT NIGHT WITH DEWPOINTS REACHING THE MID 70S
ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S AND AVAILABLE
MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE UPPER 90S ACROSS SOME
LOWLAND SPOTS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 200 AM SUNDAY...
FOR MONDAY, WE WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION FROM A PARENT LOW
TRAVERSING EAST ACROSS CANADA JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. FOR
THE MOST PART, THE MORNING SHOULD BE QUIET, HOWEVER DIURNAL
CHANCES FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY RAMP UP BY MID
AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RAMP UP TO LIKELY STORMS AROUND
THIS TIME FRAME AS WELL AND WILL LAST INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
THEREAFTER CHANCES DROP OFF SOME, BUT WILL STAY ELEVATED IN
RESPONSE TO COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR TUESDAY.
GENERALLY, ON MONDAY, INSTABILITY WILL BE ON THE HIGH SIDE WITH
UP TO 3000 J/KG OF MU CAPE TO WORK WITH. THE HYDRO INDICES WILL
BE ON THE HIGH SIDE WITH PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES AND A VERY
SATURATED COLUMN. THIS WILL PROMOTE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AS
WELL AS HEAVY DOWNPOURS ONCE AGAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
WEAK SHEAR WILL AID IN SLOW MOVING STORMS WHICH COULD LEAD TO
LOCALIZED HYDRO ISSUES LIKE WHAT WE HAVE BEEN GETTING LATELY.
FOR TUESDAY, VERY SIMILAR SETUP WITH A SLIGHTLY LESS SATURATED
COLUMN AND LOWER PWATS AND WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LIKELY IN
THE EARLY EVENING, NOT TOO MUCH TIME FOR SLOW MOVING STORMS TO
CAUSE ISSUE FOR TOO LONG, SINCE ACTIVITY WILL BE ENDING EARLY
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS HOWEVER
ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO KEEP STORMS GOING AND POSSIBLY BECOMING
STRONG TO SEVERE DURING FRONTAL PASSAGE AND EVEN AHEAD OF THE
FRONT EARLIER IN THE DAYTIME. SHEAR WILL BE GREATER THAN MONDAY
SO STORMS SHOULD BE MOVING ALONG NICELY AND WILL LIKELY NOT
CAUSE TOO MANY HYDRO ISSUES, BUT STRONGER STORMS MAY CAUSE SOME
STRONG GUSTY WINDS OR DAMAGING, IF SEVERE.
AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE BY TUESDAY EVENING HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE THEN QUICKLY BUILDS IN AND SOME LINGERING SHOWERS MAY
BE LEFT BEHIND ALONG THE MOUNTAINS AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SHIFTS EAST SLOWLY.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 200 AM SUNDAY...
STARTING TUESDAY EVENING AND GOING INTO WEDNESDAY, HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK KEEPING MOST
ACTIVITY AWAY FROM THE AREA. AN UPPER TROUGH ON THURSDAY MAY
BRING SOME CHANCES FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON
AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE CWA, BUT OTHER THAN THAT,
MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE PROTECTED. GOING INTO FRIDAY, CHANCES
START TO MATERIALIZE, BUT JUST SLIGHT CHANCES WILL REMAIN
AROUND THE REGION, BUT MUCH OF OUR AREA WILL REMAIN DRY EVEN FOR
SATURDAY. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT
HOWEVER THE SAFE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THIS
PERIOD AND POSSIBLY BEYOND. HOWEVER, CENTRAL GUIDANCE HAS
CHANCES POPPING UP FOR SUNDAY EVEN THOUGH MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
KEEP THE AREA RELATIVELY DRY.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 130 AM SUNDAY...
LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM THIS PAST EVENING HAVE
CONCLUDED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, YIELDING QUIET WEATHER
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. A NEARBY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED TO THE
NORTH, IN TANDEM WITH A PLETHORA OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FESTERING
OVER THE AREA, WILL SERVE UP POTENTIAL FOR RIVER VALLEY FOG
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. PUT MORE EMPHASIS FOR FOG AT TAF SITES
THAT PICKED UP PRECIPITATION EARLIER TODAY, BUT THAT COULD
REMAIN DEPENDENT UPON CLOUD COVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. ANY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL QUICKLY ERODE AFTER
SUNRISE.
THE FORECAST FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SUNDAY WILL FOLLOW A
SIMILAR PATTERN TO WHAT WE'VE SEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS, WITH
MORNING CONDITIONS REMAINING GENERALLY QUIET, THEN GROWING
ACTIVE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. BEST POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION IS SLATED ALONG
THE HIGHER TERRAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BUT A LOW END CHANCE FOR A
PASSING SHOWER/STORM IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR THE
LOWLANDS. A MENTION OF VICINITY THUNDER WAS INCLUDED ACROSS ALL
SITES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD. THE LATE EVENING
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST WILL BECOME PRIMARILY RADAR DRIVEN,
WITH POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING STORMS PAST SUNSET.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG COVERAGE AND TIMING TONIGHT MAY VARY
FROM THE FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SUN 06/29/25
UTC 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
EDT 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M H M H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M M H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H M H H L L H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H M H M L L L M H M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M M L L H H H H
AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS,
AND EARLY MORNING FOG, THROUGH MONDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MEK/JZ
NEAR TERM...FK/ARJ
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...MEK
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