703
FXUS61 KRLX 300531
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
131 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION THROUGH MONDAY. COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY WITH STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. DRIER
AIRMASS SETTLES IN FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 115 AM MONDAY...
WITH GOOD INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON AND WEAK SHEAR MUCH OF THE
ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE AFTERNOON WITH SLOW MOVING
STORMS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY. THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WITH PWATS NEARLY 2 INCHES AND A MOIST COLUMN ALONG
WITH SUFFICIENT DCAPE, SO THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED
INSTANCES OF LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES.
WE ARE IN AN MARGINAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK AS WELL AS
A MARGINAL FOR SEVERE STORMS. SOME STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP IN
THE AFTERNOON COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH THE MAIN THREATS
DAMAGING WIND AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
BY LATE AFTERNOON INSTABILITY DROPS OFF AND SO DOES CHANCES FOR
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE MORNING SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET
ALTHOUGH WE CAN HAVE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLY STORM
OR TWO. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCES OF SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY WILL GO INTO THE EVENING
AND AT NIGHT DUE TO POSSIBLE ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
SHIFTING INTO OUR REGION WHICH IS FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH IN
THE NEXT PERIOD.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 130 PM SUNDAY...
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IN THE NEAR TERM DISCUSSION
STARTS PUSHING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY MORNING AND IS
EXPECTED TO ROUGHLY BISECT THE REGION AS WE MOVE INTO AFTERNOON
PEAK HEATING. ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD PROVIDE
A FOCUS FOR STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH MAINLY A DAMAGING WIND THREAT
EXPECTED BEFORE FORCING EXITS EAST. COOLER AIR MOVING IN ALOFT
BEHIND THE FRONT COUPLED WITH STRONG INSOLATION IN ANY CLEARING
IN ITS WAKE MAY PROVIDE ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR ADDITIONAL
STORMS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING CLOSER TO THE
OHIO RIVER. WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT THIS COULD ADD IN A
MARGINAL HAIL THREAT TO THE MARGINAL WIND THREAT, IF IT
MATERIALIZES.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 135 PM SUNDAY...
COOLER AND LESS HUMID IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, BUT WARMING BACK UP
AGAIN HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
ONLY TAKE BRIEF BREAK FROM THE HEAT, SHOULD SEE DEW POINT VALUES
REMAINING IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK
WEEK WITH AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES ONLY IN THE 80S UNTIL WE GET
TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TRIES TO
SQUEEZE DOWN FROM THE SOUTH THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WHICH COULD
PROVIDE SOME LOW END PRECIPITATION CHANCES, BUT OTHERWISE A DRY
FORECAST IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 120 AM MONDAY...
A QUIET MORNING WITH FOG POTENTIAL AT PKB/EKN, BUT NONE
ELSEWHERE. SOME VALLEY FOG MAY SPILL INTO CRW BUT CHANCES ARE
LOW AT THIS POINT AND WILL NOT LIKELY RESTRICT VIS.
LOWER CLOUDS MAKE AN APPEARANCE BY THIS AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD
STAY SCATTERED IN NATURE ALONG WITH POSSIBLE SHOWER OR STORM
ACTIVITY. BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING THE STORM THREAT
WILL DIMINISH, HOWEVER SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE LEFT ON THE TABLE
INTO THE NIGHTTIME AS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY PERSIST AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH ON TUESDAY.
CLOUDY SKIES BY MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE LIKELY THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE HIGH DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. WINDS WILL BE WEAK IN NATURE AND STORMS AND
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY MOVE SLOW. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST SO ANY ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY TRACK NORTHEAST.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG COVERAGE AND TIMING TONIGHT MAY VARY
FROM THE FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE MON 06/30/25
UTC 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
EDT 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H L H M H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H L H L L L M H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H L L H L H H H
AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY AND
IN MORNING FOG WEDNESDAY MORNING.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MEK/JZ
NEAR TERM...JZ
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...FK
AVIATION...JZ
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