374
FXUS61 KRLX 301630
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1230 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION THROUGH TODAY. COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY WITH STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. DRIER
AIRMASS SETTLES IN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AND HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 1228 PM MONDAY...
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RAMP UP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON, IN THE
HUMID/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT, AND AS A SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE OHIO
VALLEY REGION. WIDESPREAD SEVERE IS NOT ANTICIPATED, BUT THERE IS A
CONTINUED DOWNBURST/DAMAGING WIND THREAT, ALONG WITH A CONTINUED
THREAT FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING, AS OVERALL STEERING FLOW
REMAINS AROUND 15KTS OR LESS AND PWATS REMAIN ANOMALOUSLY HIGH. SPC
HAS MUCH OF THE AREA HIGHLIGHTED IN A MARGINAL RISK TODAY FOR THE
DOWNBURST POTENTIAL. THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD WANE SOMEWHAT
OVERNIGHT, HOWEVER, ANOTHER SHORTWAVE, AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY EARLY TUESDAY, WITH AN INCREASE IN
SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE. AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM IS
POSSIBLE OWING TO A SLIGHT UPTICK IN SHEAR, WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE
PRIMARY THREAT. THE COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
AND SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1228 PM MONDAY...
COLD FRONT SHOULD GENERALLY BE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY FROM PASSING WEAK DISTURBANCES, BUT MOST AREAS
SHOULD BE DRY. A SECONDARY FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY. ONCE
AGAIN, AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM IS POSSIBLE, BUT FOR THE MOST
PART, THE AREA SHOULD BE DRY, AND OVERALL LESS HUMID THAN AS OF
LATE.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 1228 PM MONDAY...
INCREASING TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LOOK TO ROUND OUT THE EXTENDED
AS UPPER HEIGHTS BUILD ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND, MAINLY DIURNAL IN
NATURE. RIDGE LOOKS TO BREAK DOWN SOMEWHAT TOWARDS THE END OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD, AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 620 AM MONDAY...
SOME VALLEY FOG MAY SPILL INTO A FEW SITES AND BE THERE FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. THEREAFTER, VIS RESTRICTION GO AWAY AND THE
SITES OPEN UP TO VFR CONDITIONS GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
LOWER CLOUDS MAKE AN APPEARANCE BY THIS AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD
STAY SCATTERED IN NATURE ALONG WITH POSSIBLE SHOWER OR STORM
ACTIVITY. VIS RESTRICTIONS COULD COME TO FRUITION UNDER HEAVIER
SHOWER ACTIVITY. BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING THE STORM
THREAT WILL DIMINISH, HOWEVER SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE LEFT ON
THE TABLE INTO THE NIGHTTIME WITH MVFR CIGS PREVAILING AS
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY PERSIST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO
PASS THROUGH ON TUESDAY.
CLOUDY SKIES BY MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE LIKELY THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE HIGH DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. WINDS WILL BE WEAK IN NATURE AND STORMS AND
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY MOVE SOMEWHAT SLOW. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST, THEREFORE ANY ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY TRACK
NORTHEAST.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY VARY
FROM FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
EDT 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY AND
IN MORNING FOG WEDNESDAY MORNING.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...JZ
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