795
FXUS61 KRLX 011035
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
635 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TODAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES BY THIS
EVENING. SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE, ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING. DRY WEDNESDAY ONWARD.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 130 AM TUESDAY...
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TODAY FROM THE EARLY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. THE FRONT MAY GET HUNG
UP ALONG THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE EVENING, HOWEVER IT SHOULD
RATHER WEAKEN A BIT BY THEN AND JUST PROMOTE SHOWERS WHICH COULD
BE HEAVY AT TIMES AND A FEW STORMS, BUT BELOW SEVERE CRITERIA.
HI-RES MODELS HAVE A FAIRLY DISORGANIZED BROKEN LINE COMING
THROUGH AS EARLY AS 15Z AND TRAVERSING FROM WEST TO EAST AND
GETTING TO THE MOUNTAINS BY 21Z. THEREAFTER IT FALLS APART
SOMEWHAT ACROSS OUR AREA BY THEN. THERE ARE ONLY A FEW MODELS
THAT HAVE THE FEATURE MOVING SLIGHTLY SLOWER SUCH AS THE EURO
AND SREF. REGARDLESS, AS ALWAYS LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS WILL BE THE LIKELY SETUP GOING INTO THE EVENING, BUT
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL SHOULD BE AT A MINIMUM.
SEVERE INDICES LOOK GOOD WITH NEARLY OVER 2500 J/G OF MU CAPE,
ALMOST 30KTS OF BULK SHEAR AND SUFFICIENT DCAPE FOR DOWNBURSTS
THAT COULD CAUSE DAMAGING WIND. THE FREEZING LEVELS ARE HIGH,
OVER 14K FT, AND WITH NOT A WHOLE LOT OF INSTABILITY FOR
STRONGER UPDRAFTS AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT STORMS MAY NOT
BE ABLE TO PROMOTE LARGE HAIL. WITH HELICITY AND HIGH LCLS THE
TORNADO THREAT IS ALMOST NIL. SPC HAS US IN A MARGINAL THREAT
FOR WEST VIRGINIAN AND OUR VA COUNTIES SO SOME ISOLATED STORMS
MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE.
PWATS ARE STILL AT AROUND 2 INCHES ALONG WITH A WELL SATURATED
COLUMN IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS ALONG WITH LAPSE RATES ABOVE
THE ENVIRONMENTAL RATE WHICH ALL MEANS THAT HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
A REALISTIC THING ONCE AGAIN. WPC DOES HAVE US IN A SLIGHT RISK
FOR MOST OF THE AREA FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL, SO LOCALIZED
FLOODING WILL BE A THREAT IF STORMS TRAIN OR MOVE SLOW, ALTHOUGH
STEERING FLOW WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO MOVE MOST STORMS AND
SHOWERS THROUGH AT AROUND 30KTS TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. THEREFORE
LOW LYING OR FLOOD PRONE AREAS WILL BE AT THE MOST RISK.
AFTER THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTING THE COLD FRONT EXITS
EAST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AND SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO BELOW SEASONABLE FOR ONCE TODAY AS
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TAKES PLACE AND WILL STAY RIGHT AROUND
SEASONABLE FOR THE OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 235 AM TUESDAY...
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER RETURNS TO THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT MENTIONED IN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD.
HOWEVER, A FEW SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON STORMS COULD SPROUT ALONG
THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS AS WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY SWINGS
IN ALONG THE WESTWARD FLANK OF A DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
BETTER CLEARING TAKES SHAPE ON THURSDAY AS AN ENCROACHING RIDGE
BEGINS TO OBTAIN INFLUENCE OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER, THERE COULD
BE SOME VERY LIGHT SHOWERS ATTACHED TO A WEAK COLD FRONT SINKING
SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MAIN IMPLICATIONS FROM
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE LOWERING OF DEW POINTS AND OVERALL
MUGGINESS THAT HAS FESTERED OVER THE CWA FOR SEVERAL WEEKS NOW.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR TO START OFF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD, BUT WILL GRADUALLY RISE
FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST. WHILE WE HAVE A BRIEF INTERLUDE FROM THE
HUMIDITY ON THURSDAY, FORECAST PROJECTIONS HAVE THE HEAT
BUILDING QUICKLY BACK IN FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 235 AM TUESDAY...
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FIRST HINTED AT IN THE SHORT TERM
WILL TAKE CENTER STAGE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS FOR THE
INDEPENDENCE DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND. BUILDING HEAT AND HUMIDITY IN
RESPONSE TO THE RIDGE WILL ONCE AGAIN IMPOSE POTENTIAL FOR HEAT
RISKS FOR FRIDAY ONWARD UNTIL THE RIDGE FINALLY BREAKS DOWN AT
THE START OF NEXT WEEK. GENERALLY EXPECTING DRY WEATHER FOR THE
START OF THE WEEKEND, THEN BECOMING MORE ACTIVE LATE IN THE
PERIOD AS DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS UNDERCUT THE RIDGE
AMID HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 630 AM TUESDAY...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND PROMOTES SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WHILE PASSING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING. BY EARLY EVENING, THE SITES SHOULD BE OUT OF
THE ACTIVITY AND THEN GO TO VFR BY THEN. OTHERWISE, SOME
PERIODS OF IFR VIS AND MVFR CIGS UNDER SHOWER AND STORM
POTENTIAL WILL BE THE MAIN THEME TODAY. THINGS SHOULD BE MOVING
RELATIVELY QUICKLY WITH 30KTS STEERING FLOW AND CELLS WILL BE
MOVING NORTHEAST WITH MOST ACTIVITY LIKELY BETWEEN 15Z TO 21Z.
FOR TONIGHT, POST FRONTAL FOG MAY DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING AND AFFECT THE SITES WITH IFR OR
WORSE CONDITIONS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY
VARY FROM THE FORECAST. FOG TIMING, COVERAGE, AND INTENSITY
TONIGHT MAY VARY FROM THE FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE TUE 07/01/25
UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
EDT 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M H H M H H M M M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H M M H H M M H M M M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M L L L
EKN CONSISTENCY L M L L L H H M M M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M L H M M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M L L
AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
NIGHT, AND IN VALLEY FOG WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY/FRIDAY MORNINGS.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MEK/JZ
NEAR TERM...JZ
SHORT TERM...MEK
LONG TERM...MEK
AVIATION...JZ
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