234
FXUS61 KRLX 021749
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
149 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
MAINLY DRY, BUT INCREASINGLY HOT HEADING INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND WITH MINIMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES UNTIL EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 145 PM WEDNESDAY...
KEY POINT:
* HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER WEATHER.
WHILE THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY, ISOLATED
SHOWERS COULD POP UP WITHIN THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT WHILE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL OVERNIGHT. VALLEY FOG WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE UNDER CALM
FLOW AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
QUIET WEATHER SHOULD THEN PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY DESPITE A
WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSING OVERHEAD.
TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 145 PM WEDNESDAY...
KEY POINT:
* DRY AND TRENDING WARMER INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS AND SUSTAINS DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH JULY FOURTH AND
INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WHILE DAILY TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE BY A FEW DEGREES BENEATH THE RIDGE, AN ABSENCE
OF STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION COULD RESULT IN A SLOWER OR MORE
SUBTLE WARMING TREND THAN CURRENTLY SUGGESTED BY BLENDED MODEL
GUIDANCE.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 145 PM WEDNESDAY...
KEY POINT:
* BECOMING MORE ACTIVE AGAIN NEXT WEEK.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK, THOUGH
THERE CONTINUE TO BE SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE MODELS AS TO HOW
QUICKLY THIS WILL OCCUR. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE IN
RESPONSE TO THE DEGRADING RIDGE AND A FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST. WHILE SOME MODELS SHOW THE FRONT ENTERING THE
AREA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE NEW WORK WEEK, OTHERS SHOW A
COASTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH AND DELAYING THE
PROGRESS OF THE FRONT. AN UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.
AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 145 PM WEDNESDAY...
A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CEILINGS ARE PRESENT AMID SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS COULD POP UP THIS
AFTERNOON, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE IS LOW
ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW.
FOG MAY AGAIN RESULT IN IFR OR WORSE CIGS/VIS IN THE RIVER
VALLEYS UNDER CALM FLOW AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DURING THE NIGHT.
ANY FOG OR STRATUS WILL ERODE FROM THE AREA AFTER SUNRISE ON
THURSDAY, THEN VFR IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE REST OF
THE DAY.
LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD,
WITH A PREDOMINANTLY WEST TO NORTHWEST DIRECTION.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: EXTENT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON
AND FOG TONIGHT MAY VARY FROM THE CURRENT FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
EDT 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
CRW CONSISTENCY H H M M H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H M M H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY L L H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN PATCHY VALLEY FOG FRIDAY MORNING.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...20
NEAR TERM...20
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM...20
AVIATION...20
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