086
FXUS61 KRLX 030204
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1004 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY, BUT INCREASINGLY HOT THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 1000 PM WEDNESDAY...
PESKY SHOWERS CONTINUE TO POPUP IN WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA AND
LAWRENCE COUNTY KENTUCKY. WILL ADD A SMALL POP FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS.
AS OF 145 PM WEDNESDAY...
KEY POINT:
* HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER WEATHER.
WHILE THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY, ISOLATED
SHOWERS COULD POP UP WITHIN THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT WHILE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL OVERNIGHT. VALLEY FOG WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE UNDER CALM
FLOW AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
QUIET WEATHER SHOULD THEN PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY DESPITE A
WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSING OVERHEAD.
TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 145 PM WEDNESDAY...
KEY POINT:
* DRY AND TRENDING WARMER INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS AND SUSTAINS DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH JULY FOURTH AND
INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WHILE DAILY TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE BY A FEW DEGREES BENEATH THE RIDGE, AN ABSENCE
OF STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION COULD RESULT IN A SLOWER OR MORE
SUBTLE WARMING TREND THAN CURRENTLY SUGGESTED BY BLENDED MODEL
GUIDANCE.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 145 PM WEDNESDAY...
KEY POINT:
* BECOMING MORE ACTIVE AGAIN NEXT WEEK.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK, THOUGH
THERE CONTINUE TO BE SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE MODELS AS TO HOW
QUICKLY THIS WILL OCCUR. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE IN
RESPONSE TO THE DEGRADING RIDGE AND A FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST. WHILE SOME MODELS SHOW THE FRONT ENTERING THE
AREA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE NEW WORK WEEK, OTHERS SHOW A
COASTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH AND DELAYING THE
PROGRESS OF THE FRONT. AN UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.
AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 700 PM WEDNESDAY...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING RIVER VALLEY FOG,
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH, MEDIUM WITH FOG.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND LOCATION OF FOG COULD VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE THU 07/03/25
UTC 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
EDT 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M M H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H L L M M M L H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H L L L L H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M M M H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H L L L L H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H L M L L H H
AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN PATCHY VALLEY FOG FRIDAY MORNING.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...20
NEAR TERM...RPY/20
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM...20
AVIATION...RPY
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