629
FXUS61 KRLX 031504
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1104 AM EDT THU JUL 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY, BUT INCREASINGLY HOT THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1100 AM THURSDAY...
FORECAST ON TRACK, WITH THE MORNING FOG GONE AND CUMULUS FORMING
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. CUMULUS SHOULD START FORMING OVER THE
LOWLANDS AS WELL.
AS OF 600 AM THURSDAY...
A WEAK WAVE TRANSITING THE NORTH HAS STIRRING THINGS UP/PROVIDED
JUST ENOUGH CLOUD COVER TO LARGELY MITIGATE FOG FORMATION THIS
MORNING. FARTHER SOUTH, FOG FILLS MOST VALLEYS.
AS OF 210 AM THURSDAY...
MOST GROUND CONDITIONS, LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
ALLOW FOR VALLEY FOG FORMATION AGAIN THIS MORNING - WILL MONITOR
TRENDS TO EVALUATE NEED FOR A FOG SPS FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ANY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD DISSIPATE/LIFT
THROUGH AROUND 9 AM THIS MORNING.
LARGELY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY AS A WEAK AND
MAINLY DRY BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SLOWLY SINKS SOUTH TOWARD OUR
NORTHERN BORDER, ARRIVING EARLY THIS EVENING. COULDN'T RULE OUT A
STRAY SHOWER WITH THIS FEATURE AND WILL INCLUDE A FEW HOURS OF
ISOLATED COVERAGE PRIOR TO ANY LIMITED INSTABILITY BEING LOST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT SHOULD SAIL SOUTH OF THE AREA WELL PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK, SETTING UP ANOTHER VALLEY FOG MORNING WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE STATIONED OVERHEAD FRIDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 210 AM THURSDAY...
H500 HEIGHTS BUILD THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH A CORRESPONDING
RESPONSE IN SURFACE TEMPERATURES. CENTRAL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
SLIGHTLY COOLER, CONVERGING TOWARD A MORE REALISTIC SOLUTION.
DESPITE STRONG EVAPOTRANSPIRATION, CENTRAL GUIDANCE AFTERNOON MIXED
DEW POINTS LIKELY REMAIN A COUPLE DEGREES TOO HIGH, BUT THIS WILL
NOT SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT MESSAGING WITH HEAT INDICES REMAINING UNDER
CRITERIA DESPITE SLIGHTLY WARMER/WETTER GUIDANCE.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 210 AM THURSDAY...
CENTRAL GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO SLOW THE EVENTUAL APPROACH OF A
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL WAVE FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK, NOW SLATED TO ARRIVE DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THIS TIMING
COULD YIELD AN APPROACH DURING A MAXIMA OF INSTABILITY
ASSOCIATED WITH DIURNAL HEATING HOWEVER DEEP LAYER SHEAR APPEARS
MINIMAL WITH A RESULTANT RELATIVELY LOW RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER.
THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH ZONAL THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW
KEEPING WEATHER SOMEWHAT ACTIVE.
AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 600 AM THURSDAY...
VALLEY FOG LIFTS AND DISSIPATES THIS MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AFTER 13-14Z AT ALL TERMINALS. LOW CHANCES FOR AN
ISOLATED SHOWER NORTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING - TOO LOW
INCLUDE AT THE TERMINALS. PATCHY VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN
TONIGHT.
WINDS REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT, WITH A NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHIFT
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CIG/VIS IMPROVEMENT COULD VARY BY
AN HOUR FROM THE FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
EDT 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
CRW CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H H H H M
EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M H H H H H M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JP
NEAR TERM...TRM/JP
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JP
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