360
FXUS61 KRLX 032305
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
705 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS DRY BUT INCREASINGLY HOT WEATHER THROUGH
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD FRONT BRINGS BACK THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BEGIN THE NEW WORK WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...CORRECTED TYPO
A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON, WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD EASTWARD, MAINTAINING ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE
INDEPENDENCE DAY HOLIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN GENERALLY CLEAR
SKY AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL DISSOLVE AS IT SKIRTS OR SLIPS INTO
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA TONIGHT. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A
ROGUE SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM POPPING UP ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER
OF THE FORECAST AREA AT THE LAST MINUTE TODAY, WITH AN AGITATED
CUMULUS FIELD ALREADY NOTED THERE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH THE HIGH DRIFTING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD OVERNIGHT, CLEAR SKY
AND LIGHT WIND WILL PROVIDE IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING, ESPECIALLY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF VALLEY FOG, WHICH COULD BE DENSE IN SOME AREAS BY
SUNRISE.
THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE DRIFTING EAST, REACHING THE THE ATLANTIC
COAST BY THE END OF INDEPENDENCE DAY. WHILE THE RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW ON ITS BACK SIDE WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT MORE
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FROM THE GULF, IT WILL STILL BE
PREDOMINANTLY DRY, WITH AN AFTERNOON CUMULUS FIELD.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE AT COMFORTABLE, NEAR NORMAL LEVELS, IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. HIGHS ON INDEPENDENCE DAY
WILL TOP 90 DEGREES FOR MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS FOR THE FIRST TIME
SINCE THE LATE JUNE HEAT WAVE ENDED LATE MONDAY FOR SOME
LOCATIONS THEREIN.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...CORRECTED TYPO
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE
ATLANTIC, WITH A PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW ON ITS BACKSIDE. LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL LIKELY BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW VALLEY FOG
FORMATION AGAIN OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT, BEFORE LEADING TO A MORE
NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN BOTH HEAT AND HUMIDITY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
WHILE THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY, IT IS NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF THE
QUESTION THE INCREASE IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY LEADS TO A POP UP
AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORMS COME SUNDAY, PARTICULARLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE APPALACHIANS.
NIGHTS WILL BE INCREASINGLY MUGGY, WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID
60S FRIDAY NIGHT, AND THEN UP TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT. LOWLAND HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID 90S FOR THE
LOWLAND BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE
UPPER 60S COME SUNDAY, HEAT INDICES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 90S, ESPECIALLY FOR URBAN AREAS AND LOWER ELEVATIONS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...
THE LONG-TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A TRANSITION TO A
MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE NEW WORK WEEK. THE
DOMINANT HIGH WILL BE REPLACED BY AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM
AND LOW AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL WAVES APPROACHING FROM THE WEST,
LEADING TO AN INCREASED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
BY MONDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, THE
SLOW-MOVING SURFACE FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH, THE FRONT
EVENTUALLY STALL OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY, WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE
BEING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
WITH HIGH INTEGRATED MOISTURE CONTENT AND LIGHT DEEP LAYER FLOW,
SLOW-MOVING HEAVY CELLS MAY ELEVATE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING, DEPENDING ON THE EXACT
POSITION AND MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT AND POSSIBLE SMALLER
MESOSCALE FEATURES.
WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION, HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY, SETTLING TO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S FOR
THE LOWLANDS. THE THREAT FOR EXCESSIVE HEAT WILL DIMINISH
ACCORDINGLY, BUT NIGHTS WILL BE WARM AND MUGGY, WITH LOWLAND
LOWS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 700 PM THURSDAY...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING RIVER VALLEY FOG,
MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN WV AND SOUTHWEST VA, EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH, EXCEPT MEDIUM WITH FOG.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND LOCATION OF FOG COULD VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE FRI
UTC 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
EDT 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H L L
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H L M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H M M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H L L
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M L L L
AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...TRM
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...RPY
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