683
FXUS61 KRLX 041419
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1019 AM EDT FRI JUL 4 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE PROMOTES DRY BUT HOT WEATHER THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD FRONT BRINGS BACK THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BEGIN THE NEW WORK WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1015 AM FRIDAY...
FORECAST ON TRACK, WITH THE MORNING FOG GONE, AND CUMULUS JUST
BEGINNING TO FORM OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. MOST OF THE
CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH A DYING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX NEAR
CHICAGO SHOULD DISSIPATE BEFORE MAKING IT INTO THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY.
AS OF 100 AM FRIDAY...
SLIGHTLY WARMER TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS AND MID 70S TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.
HEAT INDEXES WILL STAY BELOW THE 100 DEGREE MARK, THEREFORE NO
HEAT HEADLINES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL BE THE MAIN THEME ALTHOUGH WITH A
CUMULUS FIELD THAT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN THE MID AFTERNOON
WHICH COULD SQUEEZE OUT A FEW DROPS, BUT OTHERWISE CENTRAL
GUIDANCE HAS US UNDER DRY CONDITIONS. A FEW HI-RES MODELS TRY
AND PRODUCE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THIS TIME FRAME,
HOWEVER DUE TO IT BEING DRIER WITH HIGH PRESSURE DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD WE SHOULD STAY DRY. ALTHOUGH, THE EURO, SREF AND NAM
4K HAS US SEEING SOME SHOWERS IN THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS NEAR A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
SINCE IT BEING LOW IN PROBABILITY DUE TO ONLY A FEW MODELS
USING THIS SOLUTION ELECTED TO GO WITH THE BLENDED MODEL
GUIDANCE WHICH SUPPORTS NO SHOWER ACTIVITY. THERE IS A LOT OF
DRY AIR IN THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND ALSO THEY DO SUPPORT THE
CUMULUS FIELD, ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS, BUT WITH
A LOT OF NORTH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THIS SHOULD HELP TO DRY
THINGS OUT EVEN MORE.
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT AND WEAK SURFACE FLOW
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE ABLE TO TAKE US DOWN TO SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS THEN WHAT WE HAVE BEEN
OBSERVING WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME DRYER AND NOT MUGGY
CONDITIONS ALTHOUGH VALLEY FOG WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO FORM IN
SOME LOCATIONS.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 100 AM FRIDAY...
FOR SATURDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR A DEGREE OR TWO HIGH THAN
THE PREVIOUS DAY INTO LOW TO MID 90S FOR THE LOWLANDS AND MID
70S TO UPPER 80S FOR THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WHICH WILL DRY OUT OF THE
COLUMN ALONG WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ALLOWING COMPRESSIONAL
HEATING. THIS WILL PROMOTE DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA AND
SOUNDINGS DUE INDICATE SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOPING DURING
THE AFTERNOON WHICH MAY PROVIDE SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT, BUT
SINCE DEWPOINTS WILL BE ON THE LOWER SIDE, HEAT INDEXES WILL
FALL BELOW CRITERIA LEVEL. WITH SOME SURFACE FLOW AT NIGHT ALONG
WITH DRIER CONDITIONS, IT WILL BE HARDER TO DEVELOP VALLEY FOG,
BUT CANNOT RULE SOME OUT. RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE ON THE LOW
SIDE SINCE SURFACE FLOW WILL BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED, THEREFORE
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS
DAY WITH JUST ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR THE EXPECTED
LOWS.
FOR SUNDAY, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FLATTENS OUT AND HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE WEAKENS BUT WE STILL WILL ENDURE QUIET WEATHER AS
HIGH PRESSURE STILL HOLDS BACK ANY UNSETTLED WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A MIRROR IMAGE OF SATURDAY WITH DEWPOINTS
SLIGHTLY HIGHER ALTHOUGH HEAT INDEXES STILL UNDER THAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA THRESHOLD. MODELS DO HAVE A DISTURBANCE COMING UP FROM
THE SOUTH THAT WILL GRAZE OUR AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, HOWEVER BLENDED MODEL GUIDANCE HAS US DRY, THEREFORE
ELECTED TO GO WITH GUIDANCE SINCE ONLY A FEW MODELS HAD THAT
SOLUTION. FOCUS THEN MOVES TO A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST FOR MONDAY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 100 AM FRIDAY...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON MONDAY WITH CHANCES FOR MAINLY
DIURNAL POPS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE IN
THE LOWER 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
STRONGER STORM DEVELOPMENT. IT WILL BE DRYER THAN WHAT WE HAVE
BEEN, HOWEVER WITH SEVERE INDEXES WITHIN REASONABLE
JUSTIFICATION FOR SOME ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE
AND NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION, ALTHOUGH THE MAIN HAZARD WILL
LIKELY BE FLASH FLOODING ONCE AGAIN SINCE PWATS ARE STILL
RUNNING ON THE HIGHER THAN NORMAL SIDE AND DCAPE VALUES ARE OVER
1000 J/KG ALONG WITH A SATURATED COLUMN AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES.
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS TO TAKE PLACE ON TUESDAY WITH THINGS
MOVING ALONG WITH AROUND 25KTS STEERING FLOW, THEREFORE STORMS
SHOULD BE MOVING FAST ENOUGH TO NOT CAUSE A WIDESPREAD HYDRO
EVENT. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DO GET INTO DISAGREEMENT SO THEN
ELECTED TO GO WITH THE BLENDED MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH KEEPS
DIURNAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON THE TABLE FOR THE
REST OF THIS PERIOD. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BE COMING
BY MIDWEEK ALONG WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE BEHIND THAT FEATURE
SO THE LONG TERM BEGINS TO BECOME ACTIVE AFTER A LONG STRETCH OF
DRY WEATHER.
AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 635 AM FRIDAY...
OUTSIDE SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG FOR THE NEXT HOURS OR SO, EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD TODAY. A CUMULUS FIELD
SHOULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON, BUT SHOULD STAY WELL ABOVE MVFR,
AND MAINLY DRY. WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BE APPARENT TODAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
EDT 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JZ
NEAR TERM...TRM/JZ
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...JZ
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