863
FXUS61 KRLX 041822
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
222 PM EDT FRI JUL 4 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE PROMOTES DRY BUT HOT WEATHER THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD FRONT BRINGS BACK THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BEGIN THE NEW WORK WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 220 PM FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST OF THE AREA AT THE SURFACE TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY WHILE BUILDING IN IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. THIS
PROMOTES CONTINUED MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH AFTERNOON CUMULUS
FIELDS AND EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG. IN COLLABORATION WITH
NEIGHBORS TO THE EAST, DID ADD AN ISOLATED MOUNTAIN SHOWER THIS
AFTERNOON GIVEN THE SOMEWHAT AGITATED CUMULUS FIELD THERE PER
THE ELEVATED HEAT SOURCE EFFECT AND WEAK RIDGETOP CONVERGENCE.
A MID LEVEL INVERSION ASSOCIATED WITH THE BUILDING HEIGHTS ON
SATURDAY SHOULD PRECLUDE DIURNAL PRECIPITATION EVEN IN THE
MOUNTAINS.
RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE EXITING SURFACE HIGH AND THE
BUILDING MID/UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHTS PROMOTE CONTINUATION OF THE
SLIGHT WARMING TREND. HOWEVER, EVEN WITH LOWLAND LOWLAND HIGHS
IN THE MID 90S FOR SATURDAY, DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 60S SHOULD
CORRAL PEAK HEAT INDICES AT OR BELOW 100 DEGREES F.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 220 PM FRIDAY...
SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE, AND MID/UPPER-
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE ALSO BEGINNING TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA,
PROMOTE A CONTINUATION OF MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE
BALANCE OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND, WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
WITH LOWLAND HIGHS IN THE MID 90S OVER AFTERNOON DEW POINTS IN
THE MID 60S ON SUNDAY, HEAT INDICES REACH THE UPPER 90S FOR
MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS, WITH A FEW AREAS, MAINLY URBAN SPOTS,
REACHING AS HIGH AS THE LOWER 100S. HOWEVER, DEW POINTS JUST A
BIT LOWER BENEATH THE SAME TEMPERATURES MAY KEEP HEAT INDICES AT
OR BELOW 100 SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE RETURN OF AT LEAST LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL MAKE FOR HIGHER
DEW POINTS, IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S, SUNDAY NIGHT, VERSUS LOWER
TO MID 60S SATURDAY NIGHT, MAKING FOR A SOMEWHAT MUGGIER FEEL.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 220 PM FRIDAY...
THE NEW WORK WEEK MARKS A TRANSITION TO A MORE ACTIVE AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN, AS THE DOMINANT RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE WEEKEND WILL BE REPLACED BY MORE ZONAL, WEST-
TO-EAST MID/UPPER LEVEL-FLOW. THIS WILL ALLOW SEVERAL EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO TRAVERSE WHILE PUSHING A WEAK COLD FRONT
TOWARD, INTO, AND EVEN THROUGH THE AREA FOR A TIME.
AS THE COLD FRONT INITIALLY APPROACHES THE AREA ON MONDAY, THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES, ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AS DAYTIME HEATING
DESTABILIZES THE ATMOSPHERE. THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE HEAVY, BUT
NOT ESPECIALLY FLOW, AMID A HIGH CAPE AND LOW FLOW/SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME STRICTLY DIURNAL ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY IF THE COLD FRONT IS ABLE TO PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION ON TUESDAY, BRINGING SLIGHTLY LESS HOT AND LESS HUMID
AIR IN ITS WAKE.
THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL THEN KINK THE FRONT BACK
NORTHWARD LATER NEXT WEEK, WITH THE SLIGHTLY INCREASED MAINLY
BUT NOT STRICTLY DIURNAL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWLAND HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND SURFACE DEW POINTS UP
AROUND 70S, COULD GET HEAT INDICES AT LEAST INTO THE LOWER 100S
ON MONDAY. AFTER THAT, THE HEAT WAVE, LIKE THE LAST ONE, ONLY
GRADUALLY FADES AMID THE PRESENCE OF THE FRONT, AND ASSOCIATED
MID/UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES.
AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 635 AM FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS VFR CONDITIONS WITH A CUMULUS FIELD
EACH AFTERNOON. LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW SURFACE AND ALOFT AND A
MAINLY CLEAR SKY TONIGHT ARE LIKELY TO ALLOW VALLEY FOG
FORMATION OVERNIGHT. THIS IS MOSTLY A PERSISTENCE FORECAST, WITH
VLIFR DENSE FOG CODED UP FOR EKN, AND MVFR MIST CODED UP FOR
HTS AND PKB, FOR ROUGHLY THE 08-12Z TIMEFRAME. OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING MIST/HAZE WAS CODED UP FOR BKW 07-13Z.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND LOCATION OF FOG FORMATION COULD
VARY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
EDT 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...TRM
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...TRM
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