861
FXUS61 KRLX 051032
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
632 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2025
SYNOPSIS
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES RETURN TODAY AND
PREVAIL THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE ABOVE NORMAL LATER THIS WEEK ALONGSIDE RISING HUMIDITY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 110 AM TUESDAY...
AFTER A STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER AND BELOW SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES, THE FORECAST BEGINS TO TRANSFORM TODAY AS AN
UPTICK IN MID-LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADS INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS IN RESPONSE TO AN ADVANCING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
THIS WILL ENCOURAGE INCREASED CLOUD COVER TODAY FROM THE SOUTH,
ALONGSIDE PERIODS OF ISOLATED SHOWERS RETURNING TO PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. AT THE TIME OF WRITING, LIGHT RAIN WAS SPOTTED ON
RADAR MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA INTO SOUTHERN
WEST VIRGINIA. WITH MOISTURE NOT QUITE SNEAKING DOWN TO THE
SURFACE YET, PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS, RAINFALL RATES WERE NOT
PRODUCING ANYTHING MORE THAN A TRACE TO A HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH
IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN ZONES.
TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE A DEGREE OR TWO
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASED CLOUDINESS.
ANTICIPATED HIGHS FOR THIS AFTERNOON RANGE FROM THE LOW 80S
ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AND THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S ALONG THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED AROUND THE MASON DIXON
LINE WILL MITIGATE UPPER LEVEL FORCING NEEDED FOR STRONG
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS TODAY, BUT
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A STRAY RUMBLE OF THUNDER REMAINS FEASIBLE
GIVEN THE GRADUAL RISE IN LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE. ANYTHING
THAT DOES FORM WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING THIS EVENING, RETURNING TO A QUIETER STATE OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 110 AM TUESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO DEPART INTO NEW
ENGLAND FOR MIDWEEK, WHICH WILL GRADUALLY YIELD INCREASED
CHANCES FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACTIVITY EACH DAY IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD. AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED DURING PEAK
HEATING HOURS BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON, SOME
VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE CUMULUS FIELDS WILL SPROUT
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A ROGUE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. COLUMN
FLOW REMAINS LIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE VACATING SURFACE HIGH,
RESULTING IN ACTIVITY TO HAVE VERY LITTLE MOMENTUM AND WILL
LIKELY RAIN ITSELF OUT QUICKLY AFTER FORMING.
LATEST CAMS FOR WEDNESDAY SUGGEST PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE A
SLIM CHANCE OF DEVELOPING ACROSS OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES, WITH
STRONGER ACTIVITY STAYING FURTHER WEST IN THE OHIO VALLEY AND
SOUTHEAST IN THE CAROLINAS. CONVECTIVE BLOW OFF FROM STORMS TO
OUR SOUTH WILL LIKELY SPREAD NORTHWARD UP ALONG THE WV MOUNTAINS
AND RESTRICT TERRAIN INFLUENCES FROM FIRING UP DEVELOPMENT ON
OUR SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS. A SIMILAR SET UP IS PROGGED FOR
THURSDAY, LEAVING THE BULK OF THE FORECAST AREA MOSTLY DRY AMID
WARMING TEMPERATURES.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 110 AM TUESDAY...
DAILY OPPORTUNITIES FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS
TRIUMPHS INTO THE END OF THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND AS THE
FORECAST AREA REMAINS SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO BAROCLINIC ZONES.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL ENCOURAGE INCREASED MOISTURE EACH DAY, WHICH
WILL GRADUALLY YIELD HIGHER DEW POINTS AND THE RETURN OF HEAT
AND HUMIDITY. STARTING TO SEE A SIGNAL FOR HEAT INDICES
STRETCHING BACK INTO THE UPPER 90S BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY OF NEXT
WEEK. OTHERWISE, THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE
SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS EACH AFTERNOON, REMAINING HIGHEST
ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 630 AM TUESDAY...
OVERNIGHT CLOUD COVERAGE MITIGATED FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING,
MAINTAINING VFR CONDITIONS TO START OFF THE TAF PERIOD. CEILINGS
WILL PARK AROUND 50-75KFT AGL FOR THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
AREA. A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND A RUMBLE OF THUNDER COULD
TRANSPIRE ACROSS THE SOUTH TODAY, BUT GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD RULE THE ROOST INTO TONIGHT. PARTIAL CLEARING SKIES AND
LIGHT SURFACE FLOW MAY YIELD STRONGER POTENTIAL FOR RIVER VALLEY
FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT THE TIME OF
ISSUANCE, HTS AND EKN HAD THE STRONGEST SIGNAL ON FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE VALID TAF PERIOD.
LIGHT TO SLIGHTLY BREEZY WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST WILL
PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE DAY BEFORE GROWING CALM AFTER SUNSET
TONIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT MAY OCCUR AT
MORE SITES THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
EDT 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MEK
NEAR TERM...MEK
SHORT TERM...MEK
LONG TERM...MEK
AVIATION...MEK
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page