589
FXUS61 KRLX 051547
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1147 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2025
SYNOPSIS
ISOLATED SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES RETURN TODAY AND PREVAIL THIS
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK ALONGSIDE RISING HUMIDITY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 1142 AM TUESDAY...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN LOCKED OVER THE ATLANTIC
THE NEXT FEW DAYS, KEEPING CONDITIONS IN SOUTHEAST OHIO, NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY, AND THE NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA LOWLANDS MOSTLY DRY.
HOWEVER, WEAK ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THIS HIGH
WILL ACT AS THE PRIMARY TRIGGER FOR DAILY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.
DUE TO VERY WEAK INSTABILITY, THERE IS VERY LITTLE POTENTIAL
FOR ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY TO BECOME SEVERE.
THE AIR WILL FEEL QUITE PLEASANT FOR TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE 70S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS,
WITH THE LOWLANDS WARMING INTO THE LOWER 80S. THE AIR MAY FEEL
SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID THAN PREVIOUS DAYS WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MIDDLE
60S. HOWEVER, IT WILL STILL FEEL MUCH LESS HUMID THAN THIS TIME LAST
WEEK.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1142 AM TUESDAY...
THE ESTABLISHED WEATHER PATTERN IS SET TO CONTINUE FROM THURSDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND, FEATURING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHEAST OHIO
AND NORTH-CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA. WHILE MOST OF THE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS,
A SMALL CHANCE EXISTS FOR A STORM TO DRIFT INTO PORTIONS OF THE WEST
VIRGINIA LOWLANDS OR NORTHEAST KENTUCKY.
A STRENGTHENING HIGH-PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES INTO THE WEEKEND. BY FRIDAY, HIGH
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE LOWLANDS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE
UPPER 80S. THIS BUILDING HEAT WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY
INCREASINGLY HUMID CONDITIONS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 1146 AM TUESDAY...
LOOKING AHEAD FROM THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE GENERAL
PATTERN OF SUMMERLIKE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WITH AFTERNOON STORMS
PRIMARILY CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST. WE ARE
KEEPING AN EYE ON A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE CAROLINA
COASTLINE THAT COULD POTENTIALLY DEVELOP SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND OR
EARLY IN THE NEXT WEEK. CURRENT MODELS SUGGEST THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT
DIRECTLY AFFECT THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, BUT IT REMAINS A FEATURE
WORTH WATCHING. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CURRENTLY SHOWS A
40% CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
ADDITIONALLY, MODELS INDICATE THAT ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH
THE AREA FROM THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL
SOME INCONSISTENCY REGARDING THE TIMING AND SPECIFIC IMPACTS OF
THIS FEATURE THIS FAR OUT.
AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 630 AM TUESDAY...
OVERNIGHT CLOUD COVERAGE MITIGATED FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING,
MAINTAINING VFR CONDITIONS TO START OFF THE TAF PERIOD. CEILINGS
WILL PARK AROUND 50-75KFT AGL FOR THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
AREA. A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND A RUMBLE OF THUNDER COULD
TRANSPIRE ACROSS THE SOUTH TODAY, BUT GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD RULE THE ROOST INTO TONIGHT. PARTIAL CLEARING SKIES AND
LIGHT SURFACE FLOW MAY YIELD STRONGER POTENTIAL FOR RIVER VALLEY
FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT THE TIME OF
ISSUANCE, HTS AND EKN HAD THE STRONGEST SIGNAL ON FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE VALID TAF PERIOD.
LIGHT TO SLIGHTLY BREEZY WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST WILL
PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE DAY BEFORE GROWING CALM AFTER SUNSET
TONIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT MAY OCCUR AT
MORE SITES THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02
EDT 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JMC
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...MEK
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