577
FXUS61 KRLX 060522
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
122 AM EDT WED AUG 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
ISOLATED SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES PERSIST THIS WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH
THE WEEK ALONGSIDE RISING HUMIDITY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 120 AM WEDNESDAY...
INFLUENTIAL HIGH PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY WILL ONCE AGAIN YIELD MINIMAL SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES.
DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORM DEVELOPMENT IS PROGGED TO TAKE SHAPE WEST
OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON, WHERE A POCKET OF
HIGHER INSTABILITY FORMS DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS LOCATED WITHIN OUR COVERAGE AREA DEPICTS LIGHT COLUMN
FLOW AND MORE STABLE CONDITIONS LESS OPTIMAL FOR SHOWER AND
STORM DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE GUISE OF THE NEARBY SURFACE HIGH.
MAIN TARGETS OF OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION TODAY WILL COME
FROM ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM IN OHIO AND
KENTUCKY THAT OBTAIN ENOUGH MOMENTUM TO PRESS INTO OUR
SOUTHWESTERN COALFIELDS. OTHERWISE, SHOULD SEE ANOTHER DAY OF
CONVECTIVE BLOW OFF STREAMING UP THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS
FROM ACTIVITY THAT THRIVES OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGHOUT THE DAY
THAT COULD PROMOTE A LIGHT SPRINKLE ALONG OUR MOUNTAIN ZONES.
STARTING TODAY, TEMPERATURES BEGIN A GRADUAL CLIMB BACK ABOVE
SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ALONGSIDE THE RETURN OF
BUILDING HUMIDITY. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE ANTICIPATED TO RANGE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS, AND 60S TO LOW 70S
ALONG THE MOUNTAINS. OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO THURSDAY MORNING BOTTOM
OUT IN THE 50S AND 60S.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 120 AM WEDNESDAY...
LOW END CHANCES FOR DAILY SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AMID STRONG RIDGING
ALOFT PARKED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS FEATURE WILL
ALLEVIATE STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES FROM STREAMING ACROSS
THE COUNTRY AND THEREFORE KEEPING OUR FORECAST AREA UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF NEARBY HIGH PRESSURE. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
ENCOURAGE A SLIGHT UPTICK IN MOISTURE WITH EACH PASSING DAY,
CAPITALIZING ON DIURNAL HEATING TO IMPOSE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORM DEVELOPMENT IN AND AROUND THE FORECAST AREA. MODEL TRENDS
HAVE TONED DOWN ON PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE
PAST FEW FORECAST CYCLES, NOW INDICATING ISOLATED POPS AT BEST
FOR BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS ALONG THE MOUNTAINS AND
THE SOUTHERN COALFIELDS. ACTIVITY THAT DOES DEVELOP THROUGH THE
WORK WEEK WILL BE SLOW MOVERS DUE TO LACKLUSTER WINDS NEAR THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT, RESULTING IN A DEFICIENCY FOR STRONG VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT AND LONGEVITY OF STORMS BEFORE THEY RAIN THEMSELVES
OUT. LITTLE TO NO POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER OR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL IS CURRENTLY PROGGED WITHIN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST
PERIOD.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR A WARMING TREND OVER THE COURSE OF
THE NEXT WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES RISING A DEGREE OR TWO EACH
AFTERNOON. COUPLED WITH INCREASING MOISTURE, THE HUMIDITY WILL
ALSO START TO CLIMB, WITH MOST SPOTS IN THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
FORECAST TO OBSERVE HEAT INDICES STRETCHING BACK INTO THE LOW
90S BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 120 AM WEDNESDAY...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO GROW STRONGER OVER THE
COUNTRY THIS WEEKEND, ENCOURAGING THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO BUILD
OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. A STEADY CLIMB IN AFTERNOON HEAT
INDICES WILL BE OBSERVED WITH EACH PASSING DAY, WITH SOME
LOWLAND SPOTS RETURNING TO TRIPLE DIGIT VALUES BY THE START OF
NEXT WEEK. THIS DOME OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE PARKED OVERHEAD WILL
LIMIT DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACTIVITY, CAPPING POPS TO AROUND 20
PERCENT EACH DAY ALONG THE HIGHER RIDGES AND SOUTHERN
COALFIELDS. MODEL TRENDS DEPICT A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF AN
ANTICIPATED COLD FRONT WITH EACH NEW RUN, NOW ON TRACK TO PASS
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY SOMETIME ON TUESDAY. UNTIL THIS FEATURE
ARRIVES, HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONQUER OVER THE REGION.
AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 120 AM WEDNESDAY...
SATELLITE TRENDS EARLY THIS MORNING INDICATE MID TO UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS STREAMING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST. POCKETS OF CLEARING
UPSTREAM IN KENTUCKY HAS BEGUN TO RESULT IN FOG DEVELOPMENT,
WHICH WILL BE THE FORECAST CHALLENGE OF THE NIGHT AS MORE
POSSIBLE CLEARING TAKES SHAPE INTO WEST VIRGINIA. JUST ENOUGH
LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW DENOTED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS MAY MITIGATE
MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG DEVELOPMENT FOR OUR TAF SITES FOR THIS
MORNING, BUT WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORING HTS AND EKN AS THE TWO
LIKELY TERMINALS FOR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.
OTHERWISE, AFTER SUNRISE ANY RIVER VALLEY FOG THAT TRANSPIRES
WILL QUICKLY ERODE, WITH MID-LEVEL CEILINGS THEN PARKING
OVERHEAD FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY
SPROUT THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN THE ANTICIPATED CUMULUS FIELDS, BUT
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE ON THIS REACHING ANY AERODROME AT THE
TIME OF WRITING. A SIMILAR FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL TAKE PLACE
FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, WITH A PERSNICKETY
CLOUD DECK ALLEVIATING RIVER VALLEY FOG DEVELOPMENT.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS
MORNING MAY VARY FROM THE FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE WED 08/06/25
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H L L L H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MEK
NEAR TERM...MEK
SHORT TERM...MEK
LONG TERM...MEK
AVIATION...MEK
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