981
FXUS61 KRLX 062356
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
756 PM EDT WED AUG 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
LARGELY DRY THIS WEEK, BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW STRAY STORMS
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AND EAST EACH DAY. HOTTER AND MORE HUMID
THIS WEEKEND. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 556 PM WEDNESDAY...
SEEING SPAWN OF SHOWERS AND A FEW PULSE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
EASTERN KY, WV COALFIELDS, AND SOUTHWEST VA COURTESY OF AN
INVERTED TROUGH TO OUR WEST. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
FOR A FEW MORE HOURS UNTIL HEATING IS LOST.
AS OF 1119 AM WEDNESDAY...
THE WEATHER TODAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE INFLUENCED BY A BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE. THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS REMAIN ON THE EDGE OF THIS
HIGH, WHICH WILL ALLOW SOME WEAK UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO
TRACK THROUGH THE AREA. THIS SETUP BRINGS A CHANCE FOR SOME
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY, BUT THE OVERALL PROBABILITY
REMAINS LOW, GENERALLY IN THE 10-30% RANGE, WITH THE 30%
PROBABILITIES MAINLY CONFINED TO FAR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND THE LOW TO MID-80S FOR THE LOWLANDS. DEW POINTS WILL CLIMB
INTO THE MID-60S, MAKING THE AIR FEEL A BIT MORE HUMID THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT IT WON'T BE NEARLY AS MUGGY AS THIS TIME LAST
WEEK.
THE GENERAL PATTERN WILL HOLD STEADY INTO THURSDAY. HOWEVER, THE
UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY LOOKS EVEN WEAKER, WHICH SHOULD FURTHER LIMIT THE
CHANCES FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1119 AM WEDNESDAY...
A PATTERN CHANGE IS ON THE WAY FOR THE WEEKEND. ON FRIDAY, THE
BERMUDA HIGH WILL WEAKEN AND DRIFT EASTWARD. AS IT DOES, A NEW RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. AND SPREAD INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS SHOULD SUPPRESS CLOUD, SHOWER, AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND ALLOW FOR MORE SUNSHINE AND HEATING. IN
ADDITION, IT WILL ALSO ACT AS A STEERING MECHANISM, KEEPING A
DEVELOPING TROPICAL SYSTEM CURRENTLY ON THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC
COAST WELL TO OUR EAST.
HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 90S ON BOTH FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NEAR AND WEST OF THE OHIO
RIVER.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 1119 AM WEDNESDAY...
THE HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY,
WITH THE HIGH-PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINING LOCKED OVER OUR REGION.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LIKELY MAKE A GRADUAL RETURN
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE FINALLY PUSHES EAST. AS
THIS HAPPENS, A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP, PULLING MORE HEAT
AND HUMIDITY BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE GULF AND PROVIDING
FUEL FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS KICKED OFF BY WEAK
DISTURBANCES.
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, FORECAST MODELS ARE CURRENTLY
TRENDING SLOWER ON ITS ARRIVAL TIME. A DELAY IN THE FRONT'S PASSAGE
WOULD MEAN A MORE PROLONGED STRETCH OF HOT AND HUMID WEATHER. EVEN
WITH A POTENTIAL EXTENSION OF THIS WARMTH, THIS STRETCH OF HEAT
IS CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS INTENSE AS THE PREVIOUS HEAT
WAVE FROM THE PAST FEW WEEKS.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 754 PM WEDNESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE WITH SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN KY, SOUTHERN WV, AND SOUTHWEST VA FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HTS WILL LIKELY BE THE ONLY SITE AFFECTED BY
THESE, SO DID CODE VCTS INTO THE TAF THERE.
PATCHY VALLEY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM OVERNIGHT
WITH MVFR EXPECTED AT HTS DUE TO RAINFALL AND IFR OR LOWER IS
EXPECTED AT BKW AND EKN. BKW IS ALREADY REPORTING MVFR OVC, BUT
CIGS MAY IMPROVE SLIGHTLY THIS EVENING BEFORE THEY FALL AGAIN
LATER ON TONIGHT. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR WILL OCCUR BY ~13-14Z
THURSDAY MORNING.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND SE'RLY TONIGHT, BECOMING CALM IN A FEW
SPOTS ACROSS THE LOWLANDS LATER TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE
PREDOMINATELY LIGHT AND SE'RLY AGAIN THURSDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING, LOCATION, AND INTENSITY OF FOG AND
LOW STRATUS COULD VARY TONIGHT. LOCATION AND RESTRICTIONS IN AND
AROUND THUNDERSTORMS COULD VARY THIS EVENING.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
EDT 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY MORNING WITH FOG AND
LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JMC
NEAR TERM...LTC/JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...LTC
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