343
FXUS61 KRLX 070953
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
553 AM EDT THU AUG 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
OUTSIDE OF A STRAY AFTERNOON SHOWER OR STORM, MOSTLY DRY
WEATHER PREVAILS INTO NEXT WEEK AMID BUILDING HEAT AND HUMIDITY.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 120 AM THURSDAY...
THE FORECAST AREA WILL RELISH UNDER NEARBY HIGH PRESSURE TODAY,
PROMOTING ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.
FOR EARLY THIS MORNING, SOME FOG WAS BEGINNING TO FORM ALONG THE TUG
FORK BASIN WHERE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION HAD FALLEN LAST
NIGHT. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THIS WILL STAY CONTAINED WITHIN
THIS AREA DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS AND WILL QUICKLY ERODE WITH
THE SUN RISING FOR THE DAY. THE REST OF TODAY WILL THEN FEATURE
ANOTHER DAY OF FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS FIELDS SPROUTING DURING PEAK
HEATING HOURS AND MINIMAL POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT
INTO SHOWERS OR STORMS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AND THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S
ALONG THE MOUNTAINS, WHERE CLOUD COVERAGE WILL BE MOST APPARENT.
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE FAIRLY QUIET, WITH A
LOW LEVEL JET FORMING ABOVE THE NOCTURNAL SURFACE INVERSION TO
HELP MITIGATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF RIVER VALLEY FOG DEVELOPMENT.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 120 AM THURSDAY...
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND THE START OF THE WEEKEND HAS
TRENDED DRIER THROUGH THE COURSE OF RECENT FORECAST CYCLES. THE
ESTABLISHMENT OF STRONG RIDGING ALOFT WILL FORCE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES TO STRAY FAR NORTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY, AND ALLOWING
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE TO RETAIN RESIDENCY IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FORECAST AREA. OUTSIDE OF A ROGUE AFTERNOON
SHOWER, MINIMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES WERE INTRODUCED WITH THE
LATEST FORECAST PACKAGE FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AN ONGOING
WARMING TREND WILL PROMOTE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO REACH NEAR
OR JUST ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. IN
ADDITION, INCREASING DEW POINTS IN RESPONSE TO ONSHORE FLOW WILL
BOLSTER THE RETURN OF MUGGY CONDITIONS AS AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX
VALUES SLOWLY CLIMB EACH DAY HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 120 AM THURSDAY...
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PARKED OVER THE COUNTRY WILL YIELD
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS FOR THE END
OF THE WEEKEND. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO ENCOURAGE A STEADY
RISE IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY AS WE LOOK AHEAD TO NEXT WEEK, WITH
AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES STRETCHING BACK INTO THE UPPER 90S TO LOW
TRIPLE DIGITS IN LOCATIONS ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA. A FEW
SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD SPROUT WITHIN AFTERNOON CUMULUS FIELDS
ALONG THE MOUNTAINS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT OTHERWISE THE DOME
OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES WELL
SOUTH OF THE AREA FOR THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN ARRIVES WITH A SUCCESSION OF COLD
FRONTS SLATED TO SLIDE DOWN FROM CANADA BEGINNING ON TUESDAY
AND INTO MIDWEEK. A VARIETY OF MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE STILL EVIDENT
FOR THIS TIME FRAME, INDICATING UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO
TIMING AND EXTENT OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGES. CENTRAL GUIDANCE FOR
NOW PROPOSES AN UPTICK IN POPS, BUT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
RELIEF FROM THE HEAT QUITE YET.
AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 550 AM THURSDAY...
FOG HAS STRUGGLED TO FORM ALONG THE TUG FORK BASIN EARLY THIS
MORNING DUE TO A BREEZY LOW LEVEL JET ABOVE THE SURFACE.
MEANWHILE, SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW HAS ENCOURAGED THE MVFR STRATUS
DECK ALIGNED ALONG THE MOUNTAINS TO SNEAK DOWN INTO BKW. FLIGHT
CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE ACROSS THE AREA AFTER SUNRISE,
GIVING WAY TO ANOTHER DAY OF MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER UNDER THE
GUISE OF NEARBY HIGH PRESSURE. AFTERNOON CUMULUS FIELDS SPROUT
BY LATE THIS MORNING, BUT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT INTO SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE UNLIKELY.
SIMILAR CLOUD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT, WITH A
STRATUS DECK STRETCHED DOWN ALONG THE SPINE OF THE MOUNTAINS,
WHILE THE REST OF OUR AIRSPACE RETURNS TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
THE LOW LEVEL JET RETURNS OVERNIGHT WITHIN THE FLIGHT COLUMN,
WHICH COULD ONCE AGAIN SPOIL ANY CHANCE FOR RIVER VALLEY FOG
DEVELOPMENT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: STRONGER DECOUPLING THAN ANTICIPATED MAY
ALLOW FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
EDT 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H M H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY L L H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY MORNING WITH FOG AND
LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MEK
NEAR TERM...MEK
SHORT TERM...MEK
LONG TERM...MEK
AVIATION...MEK
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