823
FXUS61 KRLX 071657
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1257 PM EDT THU AUG 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
OUTSIDE OF A STRAY AFTERNOON SHOWER OR STORM, MOSTLY DRY
WEATHER PREVAILS INTO NEXT WEEK AMID BUILDING HEAT AND HUMIDITY.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1250 PM THURSDAY...
BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE, EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHEAST
STATES SOUTHWARD ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS, WILL
PROVIDE RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS IN THE LOW LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY.
TONIGHT, EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR CALM FLOW. A LOW
LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ABOVE THE NOCTURNAL SURFACE
INVERSION TO HELP MITIGATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF RIVER VALLEY FOG
DEVELOPMENT.
THE FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON
CONVECTION ON FRIDAY. LIMITED MOISTURE WILL BE THE MAIN FACTOR.
WITH DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO MIX INTO THE MID 60S AND PWATS
VALUES HOVERING AROUND 1.5 INCHES, THE ENVIRONMENT WILL STRUGGLE
TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT. MODELS NOT
BRINGING ANY QPF TO THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY.
TONIGHT'S TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 60S ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS, RANGING INTO THE MID 50S NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. FOR FRIDAY,
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED, GENERALLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S, RANGING INTO THE UPPER 60S NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1250 PM THURSDAY...
THE BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS IN CONTROL
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND, PROVIDING MOSTLY DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS. ACCEPTED GENERAL GUIDANCE WITH MINIMAL PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. A WARMING TREND IS NOTICED INTO THE
WEEKEND, BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE, HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD
REMAINS JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 1250 PM THURSDAY...
THE SAME WEATHER PATTERN PERSISTS FOR MONDAY, WITH ISOLATED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION DRIVEN BY DIURNAL HEATING. WITH PWATS STILL
ABOUT 1.5 INCHES, BELIEVE ANY CONVECTION WILL BE SHORT-LIVED.
BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARRIVES TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT.
THE FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO STALL OVER OUR AREA AS A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS. THIS SCENARIO WILL KEEP UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
ALLOWING FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 1250 PM THURSDAY...
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WHILE A BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE EXCEPTION WOULD BE A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM THAT COULD
PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR VISIBILITY ALONG ITS PATH.
OTHERWISE, AFTERNOON CU WILL DEVELOP WITH LOW CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION MAINLY ALONG AND NEARBY THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS.
AFTERNOON CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING,
WITH SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDS LINGERING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
MOUNTAINS.
UNCERTAIN WHETHER DENSE FOG SHOULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT, UNDER
CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR CALM FLOW. A LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS
OVERNIGHT, PERHAPS PRODUCING ENOUGH VENTILATION TO PREVENT FOG
TO BECOME DENSE AND WIDESPREAD. ANY DENSE FOG OR LOW STRATUS
WILL LIFT BY 14Z FRIDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS UNDER
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: STRONGER DECOUPLING THAN ANTICIPATED MAY
ALLOW FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02
EDT 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY MORNING WITH FOG AND
LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ARJ
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...ARJ
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