462
FXUS61 KRLX 072329
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
729 PM EDT THU AUG 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
OUTSIDE OF A STRAY AFTERNOON SHOWER OR STORM, MOSTLY DRY
WEATHER PREVAILS INTO NEXT WEEK AMID BUILDING HEAT AND HUMIDITY.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 440 PM THURSDAY...
SEEING SOME NEARLY STATIONARY SHOWERS MANIFEST ACROSS CALHOUN,
GILMER, LEWIS, ROANE, AND UPSHUR COUNTIES AS A SLIGHT INVERTED
PERTURBATION SITS OVERHEAD. SOUNDINGS YESTERDAY DID SUGGEST THIS
WAS POSSIBLE DUE TO THE FEATURE SITTING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD.
ADDED SOME CHANCE POPS ACROSS THIS AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS
TO REFLECT THIS ACTIVITY.
AS OF 1250 PM THURSDAY...
BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE, EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHEAST
STATES SOUTHWARD ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS, WILL
PROVIDE RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS IN THE LOW LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY.
TONIGHT, EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR CALM FLOW. A LOW
LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ABOVE THE NOCTURNAL SURFACE
INVERSION TO HELP MITIGATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF RIVER VALLEY FOG
DEVELOPMENT.
THE FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON
CONVECTION ON FRIDAY. LIMITED MOISTURE WILL BE THE MAIN FACTOR.
WITH DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO MIX INTO THE MID 60S AND PWATS
VALUES HOVERING AROUND 1.5 INCHES, THE ENVIRONMENT WILL STRUGGLE
TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT. MODELS NOT
BRINGING ANY QPF TO THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY.
TONIGHT'S TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 60S ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS, RANGING INTO THE MID 50S NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. FOR FRIDAY,
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED, GENERALLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S, RANGING INTO THE UPPER 60S NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1250 PM THURSDAY...
THE BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS IN CONTROL
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND, PROVIDING MOSTLY DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS. ACCEPTED GENERAL GUIDANCE WITH MINIMAL PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. A WARMING TREND IS NOTICED INTO THE
WEEKEND, BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE, HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD
REMAINS JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 1250 PM THURSDAY...
THE SAME WEATHER PATTERN PERSISTS FOR MONDAY, WITH ISOLATED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION DRIVEN BY DIURNAL HEATING. WITH PWATS STILL
ABOUT 1.5 INCHES, BELIEVE ANY CONVECTION WILL BE SHORT-LIVED.
BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARRIVES TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT.
THE FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO STALL OVER OUR AREA AS A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS. THIS SCENARIO WILL KEEP UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
ALLOWING FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 728 PM THURSDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA IN
CHECK REST OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE CENTER
TO OUR SOUTH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS SOUTHWEST VA AND SOUTHERN WV. A FEW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
IN THE CENTRAL LOWLANDS WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH SPRAWLING ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF AFTER
SUNSET.
VALLEY FOG FORMATION AND A SOME MOUNTAIN LOW STRATUS(BKW) IS
POSSIBLE TONIGHT, BUT WINDS ALOFT AT 925-850MB LOOK TO BE BIT
TOO STRONG TO ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD, DENSE DEVELOPMENT. EKN COULD
STILL END UP OBSERVING IFR OR LOWER WITH FOG FORMATION,
ESPECIALLY IF DECOUPLING OCCURS. ANY FOG AND LOW CLOUD
FORMATION WILL DISSIPATE BY ~13-14Z FRIDAY. VFR IS THEN EXPECTED
WITH SCT CU DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY. CHANCES EXIST FOR MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND SE'RLY TONIGHT, WITH A FEW LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE LOWLANDS GOING CALM. WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE
ESE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON, BUT WILL BE LIGHT IN SPEED (3-6KTS).
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM FOR FOG, OTHERWISE HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG COULD END UP BEING MORE DENSE AND
WIDESPREAD IF DECOUPLING ALLOWS WINDS TO GO CALM AT MORE SITES
THAN ADVERTISED.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
EDT 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M H L
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY
MORNING WITH FOG AND LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MEK
NEAR TERM...MEK/ARJ/LTC
SHORT TERM...MEK
LONG TERM...MEK
AVIATION...LTC
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