821
FXUS61 KRLX 081003
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
603 AM EDT FRI AUG 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
OUTSIDE OF A STRAY AFTERNOON SHOWER OR STORM, MOSTLY DRY
WEATHER PREVAILS INTO NEXT WEEK AMID BUILDING HEAT AND HUMIDITY.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS THEN RETURN TOWARDS MID WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 140 AM FRIDAY...
FOG IS ALREADY STARTING TO FORM AND WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
ACROSS SOME OF THE RIVER VALLEYS BEFORE DAWN. FOG WILL THEN
DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING.
FOR TODAY, THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONSIST OF A WEAK
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN US. A FEW SHORTWAVES TRAVELING
THROUGH THE TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO SKIRT THE FORECAST AREA WHILE
A LOW MOVES NORTHWARD OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. ALTHOUGH THE
MAJORITY OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY, THERE MAY BE JUST
ENOUGH MOISTURE PRESENT TO INSTIGATE ISOLATED SHOWERS, OR
PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM, THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. ANY ACTIVITY
THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD QUICKLY FIZZLE OUT WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. QUIET WEATHER AND MILD TEMPERATURES ARE THEN
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 140 AM FRIDAY...
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES
HOLD OF THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THIS
WEEKEND. WHILE SOME FORECAST MODELS HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF
SPOTTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING PEAK HEATING IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO
MATERIALIZING REMAINS LOW ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN THE DRIER BLENDED
GUIDANCE FOR NOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND HOTTER THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH
HIGHS POTENTIALLY BREAKING INTO THE 90S FOR PORTIONS OF THE
LOWLANDS. FORTUNATELY, HUMIDITY SHOULD REMAIN LOW ENOUGH FOR
APPARENT (OR "FEELS LIKE") TEMPERATURES TO PLATEAU BELOW HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 140 AM FRIDAY...
FOLLOWING A HOT, BUT RELATIVELY QUIET START TO THE WORK WEEK,
PRECIPITATION CHANCES START TO INCREASE AS MOISTURE BEGINS
FEEDING INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF A FRONT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THEN REMAIN POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT SLOWLY
APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 600 AM FRIDAY...
ONCE FOG LIFTS IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS, VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
WILL REGAIN CONTROL FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY. AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OR STORM IS NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION THIS AFTERNOON OR
EVENING, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT IS LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE
MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS. PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND CALM FLOW LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING.
LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL TURN EASTERLY DURING THE DAY, THEN BECOME
CALM TO LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AGAIN OVERNIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: BRIEF CIG/VIS RESTRICTIONS COULD OCCUR IF A
SHOWER/STORM WERE TO DEVELOP AND PASS OVER A TERMINAL. EXTENT OF
FOG TONIGHT MAY VARY FROM THE FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
EDT 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY M M L H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG THIS
WEEKEND.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...20
NEAR TERM...20
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM...20
AVIATION...20
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