644
FXUS61 KRLX 081645
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1245 PM EDT FRI AUG 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
OUTSIDE OF A STRAY AFTERNOON SHOWER OR STORM, MOSTLY DRY
WEATHER PREVAILS INTO NEXT WEEK AMID BUILDING HEAT AND HUMIDITY.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS THEN RETURN TOWARDS MID WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 140 AM FRIDAY...
FOG IS ALREADY STARTING TO FORM AND WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
ACROSS SOME OF THE RIVER VALLEYS BEFORE DAWN. FOG WILL THEN
DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING.
FOR TODAY, THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONSIST OF A WEAK
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN US. A FEW SHORTWAVES TRAVELING
THROUGH THE TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO SKIRT THE FORECAST AREA WHILE
A LOW MOVES NORTHWARD OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. ALTHOUGH THE
MAJORITY OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY, THERE MAY BE JUST
ENOUGH MOISTURE PRESENT TO INSTIGATE ISOLATED SHOWERS, OR
PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM, THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. ANY ACTIVITY
THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD QUICKLY FIZZLE OUT WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. QUIET WEATHER AND MILD TEMPERATURES ARE THEN
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 140 AM FRIDAY...
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES
HOLD OF THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THIS
WEEKEND. WHILE SOME FORECAST MODELS HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF
SPOTTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING PEAK HEATING IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO
MATERIALIZING REMAINS LOW ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN THE DRIER BLENDED
GUIDANCE FOR NOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND HOTTER THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH
HIGHS POTENTIALLY BREAKING INTO THE 90S FOR PORTIONS OF THE
LOWLANDS. FORTUNATELY, HUMIDITY SHOULD REMAIN LOW ENOUGH FOR
APPARENT (OR "FEELS LIKE") TEMPERATURES TO PLATEAU BELOW HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 140 AM FRIDAY...
FOLLOWING A HOT, BUT RELATIVELY QUIET START TO THE WORK WEEK,
PRECIPITATION CHANCES START TO INCREASE AS MOISTURE BEGINS
FEEDING INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF A FRONT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THEN REMAIN POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT SLOWLY
APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 1245 PM FRIDAY...
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PROVIDE LIGHT TO NEAR CALM FLOW TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY.
CLEAR SKIES, CALM FLOW AND AVAILABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING TO PRODUCE DENSE FOG MAINLY ALONG
RIVER VALLEYS OF WEST VIRGINIA. EXPECT MVFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT
EKN AND CRW FOR FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE. WIDESPREAD VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON SATURDAY OUTSIDE ANY SHOWER OR STORM.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: BRIEF CIG/VIS RESTRICTIONS COULD OCCUR IF A
SHOWER/STORM WERE TO DEVELOP AND PASS OVER A TERMINAL. EXTENT OF
FOG TONIGHT MAY VARY FROM THE FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02
EDT 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG THIS
WEEKEND.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...20
NEAR TERM...20
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM...20
AVIATION...ARJ
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