347
FXUS61 KRLX 081739
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
139 PM EDT FRI AUG 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
OUTSIDE OF A STRAY AFTERNOON SHOWER OR STORM, MOSTLY DRY
WEATHER PREVAILS INTO NEXT WEEK AMID BUILDING HEAT AND HUMIDITY.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS THEN RETURN TOWARDS MID WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 135 PM FRIDAY...
THE PREDOMINANT WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES, EXTENDING SOUTH ALONG
THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AT THE UPPER
LEVELS, A TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN US, WITH LITTLE
INFLUENCE OVER THE LOCAL AREA. AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY
LOW BOUYANCY, LOW DEEP LAYERED SHEAR AND RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS
WILL ALLOW FOR A MOSTLY CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS DUE TO DIURNAL HEATING AND
OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS.
MILD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TONIGHT GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S
ACROSS THE LOWLANDS, RANGING INTO THE LOW 50S NORTHEAST
MOUNTAINS. HIGHS FOR SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 90S
ACROSS THE LOWLANDS, RANGING INTO THE LOWER 70S NORTHEAST
MOUNTAINS.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 135 PM FRIDAY...
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH A WARMING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED AS
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUE ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE MIDDLE
OHIO VALLEY AND WEST VIRGINIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ISOLATED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG THE HIGHER
TERRAIN, BUT IT WILL BE DRY FOR THE MOST PART OF THE WEEKEND.
THEREFORE, ACCEPTED GENERAL GUIDANCE WITH MINIMAL POPS THROUGH
THIS TIME PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND HOTTER THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH
HIGHS POTENTIALLY BREAKING INTO THE 90S FOR PORTIONS OF THE
LOWLANDS. FORTUNATELY, HUMIDITY SHOULD REMAIN LOW ENOUGH FOR
APPARENT (OR "FEELS LIKE") TEMPERATURES TO PLATEAU BELOW HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 135 PM FRIDAY...
BY MONDAY, INCREASING HEAT AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR
MORE WIDESPREAD DIURNAL CONVECTION TO FIRE UP DURING THE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. IT WILL STAY DRY AT NIGHT.
CENTRAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TUESDAY, AND STALLING JUST TO OUT NORTH, AND THEN
LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT BY WEDNESDAY. IT IS UNCERTAIN
WHETHER THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO INCREASE POP BY MID WEEK.
THEREFORE, ACCEPTED NBM GUIDANCE BRINGING CHANCE POPS FOR BOTH
DAYS, BECOMING DRY AT NIGHT.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 1245 PM FRIDAY...
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PROVIDE LIGHT TO NEAR CALM FLOW TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY.
CLEAR SKIES, CALM FLOW AND AVAILABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING TO PRODUCE DENSE FOG MAINLY ALONG
RIVER VALLEYS OF WEST VIRGINIA. EXPECT MVFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT
EKN AND CRW FOR FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE. WIDESPREAD VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON SATURDAY OUTSIDE ANY SHOWER OR STORM.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: BRIEF CIG/VIS RESTRICTIONS COULD OCCUR IF A
SHOWER/STORM WERE TO DEVELOP AND PASS OVER A TERMINAL. EXTENT OF
FOG TONIGHT MAY VARY FROM THE FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02
EDT 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG THIS
WEEKEND.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ARJ
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...ARJ
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