757
FXUS61 KRLX 082306
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
706 PM EDT FRI AUG 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
OUTSIDE OF A STRAY AFTERNOON SHOWER OR STORM, MOSTLY DRY
WEATHER PREVAILS INTO NEXT WEEK AMID BUILDING HEAT AND HUMIDITY.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS THEN RETURN TOWARDS MID WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 655 PM FRIDAY...
NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. ISOLATED
SHOWERS WERE PICKED UP ACROSS OUR SOUTHWESTERN VA COUNTIES, BUT
IT IS UNLIKELY ANY HYDROMETEORS MADE IT TO THE GROUND GIVEN
DRIER CONDITIONS NEAR THE SURFACE.
AS OF 135 PM FRIDAY...
THE PREDOMINANT WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES, EXTENDING SOUTH ALONG
THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AT THE UPPER
LEVELS, A TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN US, WITH LITTLE
INFLUENCE OVER THE LOCAL AREA. AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY
LOW BOUYANCY, LOW DEEP LAYERED SHEAR AND RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS
WILL ALLOW FOR A MOSTLY CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS DUE TO DIURNAL HEATING AND
OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS.
MILD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TONIGHT GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S
ACROSS THE LOWLANDS, RANGING INTO THE LOW 50S NORTHEAST
MOUNTAINS. HIGHS FOR SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 90S
ACROSS THE LOWLANDS, RANGING INTO THE LOWER 70S NORTHEAST
MOUNTAINS.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 135 PM FRIDAY...
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH A WARMING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED AS
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUE ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE MIDDLE
OHIO VALLEY AND WEST VIRGINIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ISOLATED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG THE HIGHER
TERRAIN, BUT IT WILL BE DRY FOR THE MOST PART OF THE WEEKEND.
THEREFORE, ACCEPTED GENERAL GUIDANCE WITH MINIMAL POPS THROUGH
THIS TIME PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND HOTTER THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH
HIGHS POTENTIALLY BREAKING INTO THE 90S FOR PORTIONS OF THE
LOWLANDS. FORTUNATELY, HUMIDITY SHOULD REMAIN LOW ENOUGH FOR
APPARENT (OR "FEELS LIKE") TEMPERATURES TO PLATEAU BELOW HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 135 PM FRIDAY...
BY MONDAY, INCREASING HEAT AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR
MORE WIDESPREAD DIURNAL CONVECTION TO FIRE UP DURING THE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. IT WILL STAY DRY AT NIGHT.
CENTRAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TUESDAY, AND STALLING JUST TO OUT NORTH, AND THEN
LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT BY WEDNESDAY. IT IS UNCERTAIN
WHETHER THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO INCREASE POP BY MID WEEK.
THEREFORE, ACCEPTED NBM GUIDANCE BRINGING CHANCE POPS FOR BOTH
DAYS, BECOMING DRY AT NIGHT.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 706 PM FRIDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER HIGH PRESSURE'S
INFLUENCE. SOME VALLEY FOG COULD DEVELOP TONIGHT, PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. EKN COULD SEE IFR OF LOWER DEPENDING ON
HOW FAST THE DEW POINT DEPRESSION CLOSES. OTHERWISE, CRW IS THE
ONLY OTHER SITE THAT MAY EXPERIENCE FOG AND NOT EXPECTING ANY
LOWER THAN MVFR CONDITIONS.
VFR WILL RESUME BY ~13-14Z SATURDAY MORNING. CUMULUS FIELDS WILL
LITTER THE SKY, AND THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A STRAY SHOWER OR
STORM IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH
HANGING AROUND.
WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY CALM TO LIGHT AND SE'RLY TONIGHT. MUCH OF
THE SAME IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON THOUGH A MORE ESE'RLY
DIRECTION IS LIKELY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG COULD END UP BEING MORE DENSE AND
WIDESPREAD THAN ADVERTISED IF DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS FILL IN
ACROSS THE AREA AND WINDS ARE CALM.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
EDT 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M L L M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN VALLEY FOG SUNDAY MORNING.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ARJ
NEAR TERM...ARJ/LTC
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...LTC
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