964
FXUS61 KRLX 090533
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
133 AM EDT SAT AUG 9 2025
SYNOPSIS
OUTSIDE OF A STRAY AFTERNOON SHOWER OR STORM, MOSTLY DRY
WEATHER PREVAILS INTO NEXT WEEK AMID BUILDING HEAT AND HUMIDITY.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS THEN RETURN TOWARDS MID WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
AS OF 942 PM FRIDAY...
NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST. EVERYTHING REMAINS ON
TRACK.
AS OF 655 PM FRIDAY...
NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. ISOLATED
SHOWERS WERE PICKED UP ACROSS OUR SOUTHWESTERN VA COUNTIES, BUT
IT IS UNLIKELY ANY HYDROMETEORS MADE IT TO THE GROUND GIVEN
DRIER CONDITIONS NEAR THE SURFACE.
AS OF 135 PM FRIDAY...
THE PREDOMINANT WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES, EXTENDING SOUTH ALONG
THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AT THE UPPER
LEVELS, A TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN US, WITH LITTLE
INFLUENCE OVER THE LOCAL AREA. AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY
LOW BOUYANCY, LOW DEEP LAYERED SHEAR AND RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS
WILL ALLOW FOR A MOSTLY CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS DUE TO DIURNAL HEATING AND
OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS.
MILD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TONIGHT GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S
ACROSS THE LOWLANDS, RANGING INTO THE LOW 50S NORTHEAST
MOUNTAINS. HIGHS FOR SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 90S
ACROSS THE LOWLANDS, RANGING INTO THE LOWER 70S NORTHEAST
MOUNTAINS.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 135 PM FRIDAY...
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH A WARMING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED AS
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUE ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE MIDDLE
OHIO VALLEY AND WEST VIRGINIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ISOLATED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG THE HIGHER
TERRAIN, BUT IT WILL BE DRY FOR THE MOST PART OF THE WEEKEND.
THEREFORE, ACCEPTED GENERAL GUIDANCE WITH MINIMAL POPS THROUGH
THIS TIME PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND HOTTER THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH
HIGHS POTENTIALLY BREAKING INTO THE 90S FOR PORTIONS OF THE
LOWLANDS. FORTUNATELY, HUMIDITY SHOULD REMAIN LOW ENOUGH FOR
APPARENT (OR "FEELS LIKE") TEMPERATURES TO PLATEAU BELOW HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 135 PM FRIDAY...
BY MONDAY, INCREASING HEAT AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR
MORE WIDESPREAD DIURNAL CONVECTION TO FIRE UP DURING THE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. IT WILL STAY DRY AT NIGHT.
CENTRAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TUESDAY, AND STALLING JUST TO OUT NORTH, AND THEN
LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT BY WEDNESDAY. IT IS UNCERTAIN
WHETHER THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO INCREASE POP BY MID WEEK.
THEREFORE, ACCEPTED NBM GUIDANCE BRINGING CHANCE POPS FOR BOTH
DAYS, BECOMING DRY AT NIGHT.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 130 AM SATURDAY...
PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN SOME OF THE RIVER VALLEYS
EARLY THIS MORNING, THOUGH LIGHT WIND AND DRY AIR SHOULD HELP
TO LIMIT EXTENT. MVFR OR WORSE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE WHEREVER FOG DOES OCCUR, THEN CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
ONCE FOG DISSIPATES BETWEEN 12-14Z. VFR IS THEN EXPECTED ACROSS
THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE DAY. AFTER
00Z, FLOW BECOMES CALM TO LIGHT AND SOUTHEASTERLY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: EXTENT AND INTENSITY OF FOG MAY VARY FROM
THE FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SAT 08/09/25
UTC 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
EDT 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H M H L L M M M M L H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M L H H H H H
AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN VALLEY FOG SUNDAY MORNING.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ARJ
NEAR TERM...ARJ/LTC
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...20
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