161
FXUS61 KRLX 091336
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
936 AM EDT SAT AUG 9 2025
SYNOPSIS
OUTSIDE OF A STRAY AFTERNOON SHOWER OR STORM, MOSTLY DRY
WEATHER PREVAILS INTO NEXT WEEK AMID BUILDING HEAT AND HUMIDITY.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS THEN RETURN TOWARDS MID WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 935 AM SATURDAY...
NO UPDATES NECESSARY.
AS OF 245 AM SATURDAY...
WHILE PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP IN SOME OF THE RIVER VALLEYS EARLY THIS
MORNING, THE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD KEEP
EXTENT FAIRLY LIMITED. ANY FOG THAT DOES FORM WILL QUICKLY
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE.
DURING THE DAY, QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA COURTESY OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND A
RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD. MEANWHILE, A SLOW BUT STEADY WARMING
TREND SHOULD SEND HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S TO MID 80S IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND MID 80S TO LOW 90S IN THE LOWLANDS THIS
AFTERNOON.
CALM, DRY, AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR
TONIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM MID 50S TO 60S.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 245 AM SATURDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO FOSTER DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE BULK OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK. THAT BEING SAID, A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST MAY ALLOW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO SPROUT UP
ALONG THE MOUNTAINS, PARTICULARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS ON MONDAY.
EXPECT HOT TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS
LIKELY TO REACH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S EACH AFTERNOON. DESPITE A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY, APPARENT TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL
SHORT OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 245 AM SATURDAY...
CHANCES OF MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION RETURN TO THE AREA BY MID
WEEK AS HEAT AND HUMIDITY INCREASE AND UPPER RIDGING RECEDES.
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
AS A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES PASS OVERHEAD AND AN APPROACHING FRONT
STALLS TO THE NORTH.
AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 600 AM SATURDAY...
FOG WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE, THEN VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED AMID DRIER WEATHER DURING THE DAY. A FIELD OF SCATTERED
TO BROKEN CUMULUS MAY FORM THIS AFTERNOON. PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG
COULD AGAIN PROMPT PERIODIC SUB-VFR RESTRICTIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY, THOUGH EXTENT SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIMITED.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS SHOULD BECOME CALM TO LIGHT AND EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: EXTENT AND INTENSITY OF FOG TONIGHT MAY
VARY FROM THE FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
EDT 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY L H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN VALLEY FOG EACH MORNING EARLY
NEXT WEEK, AND ALSO IN MID STORMS.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ARJ
NEAR TERM...SL/20
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM...20
AVIATION...20
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