819
FXUS61 KRLX 091713
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
113 PM EDT SAT AUG 9 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY THROUGH SUNDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
STORMS RETURN TOWARDS MID WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 1205 PM SATURDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY IN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WARM HOWEVER FROM PREVIOUS
DAYS, PARTICULARLY AS WE GET INTO THE SHORT TERM PERIOD, AS UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER CALM AND DRY NIGHT IS
EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT, WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF RIVER VALLEY FOG
TOWARDS MORNING.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1205 PM SATURDAY...
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO TICK UPWARDS SLIGHTLY EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD, WITH MANY LOWLAND LOCATIONS
REBOUNDING INTO THE LOWER 90S FOR DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES. WILL
RETURN TO THE LOWER 90S. AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE PERIOD WILL ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS AT TIMES, MAINLY DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS.
OVERNIGHTS WILL BE WARM AND MUGGY. HEAT INDICES DURING THE PERIOD
WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S, BUT AT THIS POINT, ARE
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW THE ADVISORY THRESHOLD OF
100.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 1205 PM SATURDAY...
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA FROM MID
WEEK ON FROM THE COMBINATION OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY, AND
WEAK WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA IN THE INCREASINGLY MOIST,
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. STORMS WILL CONTAIN HEAVY DOWNPOURS, AND
OVERALL BE SLOW TO MOVE IN THE LIGHT FLOW REGIME. LOCALIZED FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE, BUT WIDESPREAD ISSUES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO
ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS. IN ADDITION, CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER
LOOK TO BE RELATIVELY LOW DURING THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 113 PM SATURDAY...
PATCHY LIFR/VLIFR RIVER VALLEY FOG 08-12Z SUNDAY IN DEEPER
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. OTHERWISE, VFR WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS DURING THE PERIOD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: EXTENT AND INTENSITY OF FOG TONIGHT MAY
VARY FROM THE FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04
EDT 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN VALLEY FOG EACH MORNING EARLY
NEXT WEEK, AND ALSO IN MID AFTERNOON STORMS.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...SL
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