665
FXUS61 KRLX 100540
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
140 AM EDT SUN AUG 10 2025
SYNOPSIS
MOSTLY DRY TODAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS
RETURN TOWARDS MID WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
AS OF 720 PM SUNDAY...
WILL KEEP ISOLD/SCT MENTION OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH 8-9 PM.
AS OF 415 PM SATURDAY...
ADDED AN ISOLATED MENTION OF SHOWERS NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN
FOR THE BALANCE OF THE AFTERNOON WHERE PARCELS ARE LOCALLY SNEAKING
THROUGH A WEAK CAP AROUND H600.
AS OF 1205 PM SATURDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY IN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WARM HOWEVER FROM PREVIOUS
DAYS, PARTICULARLY AS WE GET INTO THE SHORT TERM PERIOD, AS UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER CALM AND DRY NIGHT IS
EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT, WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF RIVER VALLEY FOG
TOWARDS MORNING.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1205 PM SATURDAY...
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO TICK UPWARDS SLIGHTLY EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD, WITH MANY LOWLAND LOCATIONS
REBOUNDING INTO THE LOWER 90S FOR DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES. WILL
RETURN TO THE LOWER 90S. AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE PERIOD WILL ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS AT TIMES, MAINLY DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS.
OVERNIGHTS WILL BE WARM AND MUGGY. HEAT INDICES DURING THE PERIOD
WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S, BUT AT THIS POINT, ARE
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW THE ADVISORY THRESHOLD OF
100.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 1205 PM SATURDAY...
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA FROM MID
WEEK ON FROM THE COMBINATION OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY, AND
WEAK WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA IN THE INCREASINGLY MOIST,
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. STORMS WILL CONTAIN HEAVY DOWNPOURS, AND
OVERALL BE SLOW TO MOVE IN THE LIGHT FLOW REGIME. LOCALIZED FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE, BUT WIDESPREAD ISSUES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO
ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS. IN ADDITION, CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER
LOOK TO BE RELATIVELY LOW DURING THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 135 AM SUNDAY...
PATCHY FOG MAY FORM UNDER CALM TO LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT. DEVELOPMENT IS MOST LIKELY IN THE RIVER VALLEYS AND WHERE
SHOWERS OCCURRED IN THE MOUNTAINS YESTERDAY. MVFR OR WORSE
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN FOG, THEN
CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY IMPROVE TO VFR BY 12-13Z.
DURING THE DAY, THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN VFR AMID
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS; HOWEVER, A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS
COULD BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY ALONG THE MOUNTAINS, DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF AFTER
00Z.
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD, WITH A
DIRECTION GENERALLY RANGING FROM EAST TO SOUTHEAST.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: EXTENT AND INTENSITY OF FOG MAY VARY FROM
THE FORECAST. BRIEF RESTRICTIONS COULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS DURING THE DAY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SUN 08/10/25
UTC 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
EDT 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H L L H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H L M M M M M M H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN VALLEY FOG EACH MORNING EARLY
NEXT WEEK, AND ALSO IN MID AFTERNOON STORMS.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...20
NEAR TERM...JP/SL
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...20
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