049
FXUS61 KRLX 100659
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
259 AM EDT SUN AUG 10 2025
SYNOPSIS
MOSTLY DRY TODAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS
RETURN TOWARDS MID WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 250 AM SUNDAY...
PATCHY FOG IS ALREADY DEVELOPING IN SOME OF THE RIVER VALLEYS
AND LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED RAIN YESTERDAY. LIKE THE PAST COUPLE
OF MORNINGS, FOG WILL QUICKLY ERODE ONCE THE SUN RISES.
ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH PRESSURE, DAYTIME HEATING COULD PROMPT A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS
TO DEVELOP, MAINLY ALONG THE MOUNTAINS, THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HOWEVER, FOR NOW, CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT AND
PLACEMENT IS LOW ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN THE DRIER BLENDED MODEL SOLUTION.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE NORMAL, WITH MID 70S TO
80S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND MID 80S TO LOW 90S IN THE LOWLANDS. MILD
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD THEN RANGE FROM MID 50S TO 60S IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND MID TO UPPER 60S IN THE LOWLANDS.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 250 AM SUNDAY...
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL START TO INCREASE AMID HOT AND
MORE HUMID CONDITIONS DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK. ON
MONDAY, ENOUGH DRY AIR MAY PERSIST TO KEEP PRECIPITATION MAINLY
CONFINED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. INCREASING MOISTURE SHOULD THEN ALLOW
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
ALTHOUGH INCREASING HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH HEAT INDICES INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 90S IN THE LOWLANDS, CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
SHOULD HELP KEEP APPARENT TEMPERATURES FROM MEETING HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA ON TUESDAY.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 250 AM SUNDAY...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST FROM MID TO LATE WEEK AS A FEW
SHORTWAVES PASS OVER THE AREA AND AN APPROACHING FRONT STALLS JUST
NORTH OF THE AREA. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE PRESENT, STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS. SOME INSTANCES OF LOCALIZED
FLOODING COULD BE POSSIBLE IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS OR LOCATIONS
IMPACTED BY MULTIPLE STORMS.
AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 135 AM SUNDAY...
PATCHY FOG MAY FORM UNDER CALM TO LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT. DEVELOPMENT IS MOST LIKELY IN THE RIVER VALLEYS AND WHERE
SHOWERS OCCURRED IN THE MOUNTAINS YESTERDAY. MVFR OR WORSE
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN FOG, THEN
CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY IMPROVE TO VFR BY 12-13Z.
DURING THE DAY, THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN VFR AMID
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS; HOWEVER, A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS
COULD BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY ALONG THE MOUNTAINS, DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF AFTER
00Z.
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD, WITH A
DIRECTION GENERALLY RANGING FROM EAST TO SOUTHEAST.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: EXTENT AND INTENSITY OF FOG MAY VARY FROM
THE FORECAST. BRIEF RESTRICTIONS COULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS DURING THE DAY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SUN 08/10/25
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H L L H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H L M M M M M L H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M L H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN VALLEY FOG EACH MORNING EARLY
NEXT WEEK, AND ALSO IN MID AFTERNOON STORMS.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...20
NEAR TERM...20
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM...20
AVIATION...20
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