372
FXUS61 KRLX 101018
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
618 AM EDT SUN AUG 10 2025
SYNOPSIS
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS WEEK, WITH
INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS
RETURN MID TO LATE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 250 AM SUNDAY...
PATCHY FOG IS ALREADY DEVELOPING IN SOME OF THE RIVER VALLEYS
AND LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED RAIN YESTERDAY. LIKE THE PAST COUPLE
OF MORNINGS, FOG WILL QUICKLY ERODE ONCE THE SUN RISES.
ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH PRESSURE, DAYTIME HEATING COULD PROMPT A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS
TO DEVELOP, MAINLY ALONG THE MOUNTAINS, THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HOWEVER, FOR NOW, CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT AND
PLACEMENT IS LOW ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN THE DRIER BLENDED MODEL SOLUTION.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE NORMAL, WITH MID 70S TO
80S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND MID 80S TO LOW 90S IN THE LOWLANDS. MILD
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD THEN RANGE FROM MID 50S TO 60S IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND MID TO UPPER 60S IN THE LOWLANDS.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 250 AM SUNDAY...
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL START TO INCREASE AMID HOT AND
MORE HUMID CONDITIONS DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK. ON
MONDAY, ENOUGH DRY AIR MAY PERSIST TO KEEP PRECIPITATION MAINLY
CONFINED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. INCREASING MOISTURE SHOULD THEN ALLOW
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
ALTHOUGH INCREASING HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH HEAT INDICES INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 90S IN THE LOWLANDS, CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
SHOULD HELP KEEP APPARENT TEMPERATURES FROM MEETING HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA ON TUESDAY.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 250 AM SUNDAY...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST FROM MID TO LATE WEEK AS A FEW
SHORTWAVES PASS OVER THE AREA AND AN APPROACHING FRONT STALLS JUST
NORTH OF THE AREA. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE PRESENT, STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS. SOME INSTANCES OF LOCALIZED
FLOODING COULD BE POSSIBLE IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS OR LOCATIONS
IMPACTED BY MULTIPLE STORMS.
AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 615 AM SUNDAY...
RESTRICTIONS DUE TO FOG WILL IMPROVE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO, THEN
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA
TODAY. WHILE MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY, A FEW SHOWERS OR
STORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE - MAINLY ALONG THE MOUNTAINS - THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FIELD OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS IS
ALSO EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT TODAY, THEN BECOME CALM
TO LIGHT OVERNIGHT. LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY, PATCHY FOG WILL
ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE IN THE RIVER VALLEYS AND ANY AREAS THAT
RECEIVED RAIN DURING THE DAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: BRIEF RESTRICTIONS COULD OCCUR IN SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON. EXTENT AND INTENSITY OF FOG TONIGHT MAY VARY
FROM THE FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
EDT 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
CRW CONSISTENCY L L H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z MONDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN VALLEY FOG EACH MORNING EARLY
NEXT WEEK, AND ALSO IN MID AFTERNOON STORMS.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...20
NEAR TERM...20
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM...20
AVIATION...20
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