187
FXUS61 KRLX 102326
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
726 PM EDT SUN AUG 10 2025
SYNOPSIS
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS WEEK, WITH
INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS
RETURN MID TO LATE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 110 PM SUNDAY...
A POP UP SHOWER OR STORM CAN'T BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN DURING PEAK HEATING TODAY, BUT OVERALL, THE AREA
SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY, WITH VALLEY FOG FORMING AGAIN TOWARDS
MORNING IN THE DEEPER/FAVORED VALLEYS. A SLIGHT UPTICK IN MOISTURE
WILL BE NOTED ON MONDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES SLIGHTLY ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GREATER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS AS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS, ALTHOUGH LARGELY CONFINED TO
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS, AND CAPPED AT SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END
CHANCE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 90S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 110 PM SUNDAY...
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO TICK UPWARDS SLIGHTLY TUESDAY WITH
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD, WITH MANY LOWLAND LOCATIONS
REBOUNDING INTO THE LOWER 90S FOR DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES. AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD WILL ALLOW
FOR SHOWERS/STORMS AT TIMES, MAINLY DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS.
WEDNESDAY WILL SEE A GREATER CHANCE FOR STORMS VERSUS TUESDAY, AS A
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTH SAGS SOUTH TOWARDS THE AREA. STORMS WILL
CONTAIN HEAVY DOWNPOURS, AND OVERALL BE SLOW TO MOVE IN THE LIGHT
FLOW REGIME. OVERNIGHTS WILL BE WARM AND MUGGY. HEAT INDICES DURING
THE PERIOD WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S, BUT AT THIS POINT,
ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW THE ADVISORY THRESHOLD
OF 100, PARTICULARLY AS WE GET INTO MID WEEK WITH GREATER CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION/CLOUD COVER.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 110 PM SUNDAY...
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA FROM MID
WEEK ON FROM THE COMBINATION OF A LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY, AND
WEAK WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA IN THE INCREASINGLY MOIST,
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. STORMS WILL CONTAIN HEAVY DOWNPOURS, AND
OVERALL BE SLOW TO MOVE IN THE LIGHT FLOW REGIME. LOCALIZED FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE, BUT WIDESPREAD ISSUES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO
ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS. IN ADDITION, CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER
LOOK TO BE RELATIVELY LOW DURING THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 720 PM SUNDAY...
EXPECTING SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG TO AFFECT CRW/PKB WITH MVFR AND
EKN WITH LIFR/VLIFR IN THE EARLY MORNING UNTIL AROUND 12-13Z.
OUTSIDE THE VALLEY FOG VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
REST OF THE MORNING AND THROUGH THE EVENING. VALLEY FOG IS
POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN IN THE MOUNTAINS FOR MONDAY NIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: EXTENT AND INTENSITY OF FOG IN THE MORNING
MAY VARY FROM THE FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE MON
UTC 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
EDT 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M L M M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN VALLEY FOG EACH MORNING EARLY
NEXT WEEK, AND ALSO IN MID AFTERNOON STORMS.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...JZ
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