629
FXUS61 KRLX 110616
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
216 AM EDT MON AUG 11 2025
SYNOPSIS
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS INCREASES EARLY THIS WEEK
AMID INCREASING HUMIDITY, PEAKS MID WEEK, THEN DECREASES AND
BECOMES MORE DIURNAL LATE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 215 AM MONDAY...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT,
BUT, WITH THE HELP OF MID/UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE HOLDING
FIRM OVERHEAD, MAINTAINS MAINLY DRY WEATHER. LOW LEVEL RETURN
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL BRING INCREASING
MOISTURE, ENOUGH FOR THE POP-UP AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN, BUT CAPPED AT SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE.
LOW LEVEL FLOW UP TO 20 KTS IN THE GUIDANCE EARLY THIS MORNING
WAS SUPPORTED BY THE RLX VAD WIND PROFILE, AND SHOULD PRECLUDE
FOG IN ALL BUT THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. GUIDANCE HITS THE
FOG MUCH HARDER OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AMID SLIGHTLY WEAKER LOW
LEVEL FLOW, AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST, AND A SURFACE
TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST LIFTS NORTHEAST AND WEAKENS A BIT.
TEMPERATURES TODAY TOP OUT NEAR OR A BIT HIGHER THAN ON SUNDAY,
AND THEN BOTTOM OUT A BIT HIGHER TONIGHT COMPARED WITH EARLY
THIS MORNING, ABOVE NORMAL ON BOTH COUNTS.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 215 AM MONDAY...
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THIS PERIOD AMID SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW LEVEL FLOW BETWEEN OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE, AND
SYSTEMS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
THE TAIL END OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES
TUESDAY, AND THEN DRIFTS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH THE
INCREASED MOISTURE, THIS NOT ONLY BRINGS THE CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT KEEPS
THE CHANCE GOING OVERNIGHT AS WELL.
A SECOND, TRAILING SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES WEDNESDAY, PUSHING A SURFACE COLD FRONT CLOSER TO
THE AREA, WITH A FURTHER INCREASE IN LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE
AHEAD OF IT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE AROUND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A RESULT. WITH THE SHORT WAVE ACTUALLY
CROSSING OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN LINGERS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
STORMS WILL CONTAIN HEAVY DOWNPOURS, AND OVERALL BE SLOW TO
MOVE IN THE LIGHT FLOW REGIME. LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS, BUT WIDESPREAD ISSUES ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED DUE TO ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS. THE SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE RELATIVELY LOW DURING THE
PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THIS PERIOD, BUT
CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON MAY SUPPRESS HIGH TEMPERATURES A
BIT COMPARED WITH TUESDAY. ADJUSTED AFTERNOON DEW POINTS DOWN
SLIGHTLY FROM CENTRAL GUIDANCE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AFTER
RECALCULATION OF MAXIMUM APPARENT TEMPERATURES, LOWLAND VALUES
ARE CORRALLED BELOW 100 F, LARGELY IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S,
PRECLUDING THE POTENTIAL NEED FOR HEAT ADVISORIES IN FUTURE
PACKAGES. OVERNIGHTS WILL BE WARM AND MUGGY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 215 AM MONDAY...
MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING REBUILDS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, BUT A
WEAK MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEARBY SOUTH OF THE RIDGE. ALL OF THIS
LOWERS BUT DOES NOT ENTIRELY ELIMINATE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS, BUT DOES KEEP THEM CONFINED MORE TO THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS, FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WORK WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND.
STORMS WILL CONTAIN HEAVY DOWNPOURS, AND OVERALL BE SLOW TO
MOVE IN THE LIGHT FLOW REGIME. LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS, BUT WIDESPREAD ISSUES
ARE NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO DECREASING COVERAGE. THE SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW DURING THE
PERIOD.
CENTRAL GUIDANCE REFLECTS TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY RETURNING TO
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS, AND AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES MAY CREEP TOWARD
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE LOWLANDS NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 215 AM MONDAY...
LOW LEVEL FLOW UP TO 20 KTS IN THE GUIDANCE EARLY THIS MORNING
WAS SUPPORTED BY THE RLX VAD WIND PROFILE, AND SHOULD PRECLUDE
FOG IN ALL BUT THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS/TYGART/EKN. ALSO HAVE
MVFR MIST AT PKB WHERE LOW LEVEL FLOW APPEARS TO BE A BIT
LIGHTER, AND JUST A HINT OF MIST /6SM/ CKB AND CRW EARLY THIS
MORNING.
OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN MVFR CONDITIONS WITH AN
AFTERNOON CUMULUS FIELD. AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE MAY BE ENOUGH
FOR THE POP-UP AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN /EKN-BKW/.
GUIDANCE HITS THE FOG MUCH HARDER OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AMID
SLIGHTLY WEAKER LOW LEVEL FLOW, AND THERE MAY BE A HINT OF ITS
FORMATION AT LEAST AT EKN BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD, 06Z
TUESDAY.
SURFACE FLOW WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST. FLOW ALOFT WILL BE LIGHT SOUTH, CAPPED AT 20 KTS
DURING THE NOCTURNAL HOURS, AND PERHAPS NO MORE THAN 5 KTS
DURING PEAK AFTERNOON MIXING.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FLOW ALOFT MAY LIMIT FOG FORMATION EVEN AT
EKN EARLY THIS MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN AFTERNOON CONVECTION IN
THE MOUNTAINS WAS NOT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION IN THE
TAFS, BUT INCLUSION MAY BE NEEDED IN LATER FORECASTS OR
AMENDMENTS AT EKN AND/OR BKW.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE MON 08/11/25
UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H M L M M M M H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN VALLEY FOG EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING, AND ALSO IN MID AFTERNOON STORMS, ESPECIALLY ON
WEDNESDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...TRM
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...TRM
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page