068
FXUS61 KRLX 020711
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
311 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES ONE MORE DAY. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES MID-WEEK AHEAD OF A PAIR OF COLD
FRONTS, WHICH CROSS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 205 AM TUESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE SPRAWLING FROM THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY TO THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES AND CANADIAN MARITIMES PROVIDES ONE MORE
MAINLY DRY DAY TODAY, BEFORE SPLITTING IN TWO TONIGHT, IN
RESPONSE TO THE NEXT SYSTEM HEADING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
HOWEVER, A MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES MAY
PROVIDE ENOUGH IMPETUS FOR AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS, TAPPING A MOIST H8-H7 LAYER
BETWEEN THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER AND AN INVERSION. THE
INVERSION WILL KEEP ANY CELLS SHALLOW, PRECLUDING LIGHTNING. ANY
SHOWER THAT DOES POP UP THIS AFTERNOON DOES NOT SURVIVE THE
SUNSET THIS EVENING.
WHILE TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY DRY, A SECOND SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORT WAVE TROUGH, AND A RETURN SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND
THE BACK SIDE OF THE RETREATING EASTERN AND MAIN PIECE OF THE
HIGH, MAY ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSHOWERS TO REACH AS FAR
NORTHEAST AS THE TUG FORK BY DAWN WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WERE RUNNING A LITTLE BELOW CENTRAL GUIDANCE AND
NEAR THE LOW END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOP AMID THE DRY, MAINLY
CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS AGAIN EARLY THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES
DO NOT CHANGE MUCH FROM RECENT DAYS IN THE NEAR TERM, WITH
HIGHS TODAY AGAIN NEAR NORMAL, AND THEN LOWS TONIGHT A LITTLE
BELOW. CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT MAY
KEEP LOWS CLOSER TO CENTRAL GUIDANCE AT LEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
310 AM TUESDAY...
CENTRAL TO EASTERN NORTH AMERICAN LONG WAVE TROUGH AMPLIFICATION
TAKES PLACE THIS PERIOD, AS A NORTHERN STREAM MID/UPPER-LEVEL
LOW DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES, FILLING THE PRE-
EXISTING VOID NORTH OF THE LINGERING SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE.
THE CHANCE FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
WEDNESDAY IS STILL TIED TO THE LINGERING SOUTHERN STREAM FEATURE
APPROACHING NEAR THE END OF THE NEAR TERM, EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING, AND NORTHWARD MOISTURE RETURN RAISING SURFACE DEW
POINTS INTO THE LOWER 60S ON WEDNESDAY.
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF THE DIGGING
MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT, AFTER SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INITIALLY FADE WITH SUNSET WEDNESDAY EVENING,
THE CHANCE FOR AT LEAST SHOWERS INCREASES AGAIN TOWARD DAWN
THURSDAY OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY.
THE COLD FRONT EASES THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT, WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING IN
COVERAGE THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON HEATING AHEAD OF
IT. THUNDERSTORMS ANYWHERE EAST OF THE FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON
CAN ORGANIZE AND BECOME STRONG, AMID MODEST CAPE UP TO A KJ/KG
AND 0-6/8 KM SHEAR TO AROUND 40 KTS.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR ONE HALF TO ONE INCH OF
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM INCLUDING WEDNESDAY, BUT
THE LIONS SHARE OF IT COMING THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY
EVENING, AS PW VALUES CLIMB TO A MODEST INCH AND A HALF. THIS
SHOULD BE EASILY MANAGED HYDROLOGICALLY GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT
RATHER DRY CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER, THE FRONT SLOWS DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT, AS THE MID/UPPER-
LEVEL FLOW ACTUALLY BACKS IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORT LIFTING
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA, AND AHEAD OF ANOTHER DIGGING INTO THE
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. ONLY A SMALL BUBBLE HIGH BUILDS IN
BEHIND THE FRONT, AS THE FRONT LUMBERS EAST OF THE AREA EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING.
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHICH
THEN DIMINISHES THURSDAY NIGHT COULD LEAD TO TRAINING OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON, AND THEN SLOWER
CELL MOTION THURSDAY NIGHT. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION HIGH
WATER ISSUES COULD LOCALLY ARISE WHERE REPETITIVE OR PERSISTENT
CELLS OCCUR.
THE BUBBLE HIGH BUILDING IN EARLY THURSDAY MORNING IS A PRIME
SETUP FOR FOG AND STRATUS IN THE WAKE OF THE RAIN THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT.
CENTRAL GUIDANCE REFLECTS HIGHS NEAR NORMAL AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY,
AND THEN BELOW NORMAL ON THURSDAY GIVEN THE MORE WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE COLD FRONT, AND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ITSELF. LOWS WILL
BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THE FIRST TIME IN OVER A WEEK WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, AND THEN BACK BELOW NORMAL, ESPECIALLY WEST, THURSDAY
NIGHT.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
310 AM TUESDAY...
FRIDAY DAWNS WITH FOG AND STRATUS BENEATH A BUBBLE HIGH IN THE
WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WASHING OUT JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. THE
DAY SHOULD TURN OUT DRY WITH SOME SUNSHINE.
THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH
POSITION, AND DIGGING TOWARD THE AREA NEAR THE END OF THE SHORT
TERM, DRIVES A SECONDARY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MODELS ARE NOW SUGGESTING A BETTER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS WITH THIS FRONT OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY, EVEN AN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM IN THE MOUNTAINS
SATURDAY, IF THE FRONT IS SLOW ENOUGH IN MOVING THROUGH THERE.
EVEN SO, THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT BE STRONG, AND RAINFALL WILL BE
LIGHT WITH THIS SECOND FRONT, AS THE INITIAL FRONT TAKES OUT
MOST OF THE DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE, AND TIMING UNFAVORABLE
RELATIVE TO DIURNAL HEATING FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
MODELS CONTINUE TO CONCUR ON A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THEN
BUILDING OVER THE AREA TO FINISH OUT NEXT WEEKEND, SPRAWLING
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST, OHIO VALLEY AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC. HOWEVER,
MID/UPPER- LEVEL HEIGHTS BUILD, AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH BEGINS
TO LIFT OUT. ALL OF THIS SPELLS DRY, COOL WEATHER TO FINISH OUT
THE WEEKEND, FOLLOWED BY TEMPERATURES BEGINNING TO MODERATE
DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF THE FOLLOWING WORK WEEK, AMID
CONTINUED DRY, BENIGN WEATHER, AS THE SURFACE HIGH BEGINS TO
MOVE OUT.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 205 AM TUESDAY...
MAINLY A PERSISTENCE FORECAST, FOG WILL BEGIN FORMING AT EKN
TOWARD 08Z EARLY THIS MORNING, AND WILL FLUCTUATE MAINLY IFR TO
VLIFR 08-12Z, BEFORE LIFTING AND DISSIPATING. FOG IS NOT LIKELY
ELSEWHERE, THE ELK RIVER VALLEY CONTAINING ANY FOG NEARBY CRW,
AND HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA OTHERWISE PROVIDES
CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS. A SHOWER MAY POP UP OVER THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON, BUT IMPACTS ARE NOT LIKELY, AND THE
FORECAST IS GENERALLY VRB03KT P6SM FEW070 THIS PERIOD.
SURFACE FLOW WILL BE CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO LIGHT
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST. LIGHT, MAINLY SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT
TODAY, WILL BECOME LIGHT SOUTHWEST TONIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND INTENSITY OF FOG AT EKN EARLY
THIS MORNING MAY VARY, AND FLUCTUATE MORE WIDELY THAN INDICATED.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE TUE 09/02/25
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H L L M M M L L H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS WITHIN AN
ENCROACHING COLD FRONT THURSDAY. IFR POSSIBLE IN FOG AND
STRATUS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...TRM
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...TRM
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