076
FXUS61 KRLX 030638
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
238 AM EDT WED SEP 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK DISTURBANCE CROSSING TODAY BRINGS BACK THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS, WHICH INCREASES FURTHER AS COLD FRONTS
CROSS THURSDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
AS OF 235 AM WEDNESDAY...
A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH, WITH A WEAK LOW LEVEL
REFLECTION, OUT AHEAD OF A STRONG MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW DROPPING
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST, WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING, AND THE NAM MESO SUITE AND THE FV3 CORE SUGGEST
CONVECTION NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE TUG FORK BY DAYBREAK. WITH THE
HELP OF DIURNAL HEATING, DEW POINTS CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 60S
AND MUCAPE TO 500-100 J/KG, THIS SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL
SPREAD NORTHWARD THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
MODEST PW VALUES OF JUST OVER AN INCH AND THE H85 SOUTHWEST FEED
OF ONLY 15 KTS SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION TODAY SCATTERED, AS WELL
AS KEEPING CELLS FROM BECOMING STRONG OR HEAVY.
ANY CONVECTION AROUND THIS EVENING WILL DIE OFF AROUND SUNSET,
AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. HOWEVER, THE
STRONGER MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL DRIVE A SURFACE COLD FRONT
TOWARD THE AREA OVERNIGHT, CLOSE ENOUGH TO WHERE A POSSIBLE LINE
OF CONVECTION COULD SWEEP INTO THE AREA FROM WEST BY DAWN
THURSDAY. THIS IS SUGGESTED BY THE NAM MESO SUITE, THE FV3 CORE
AND THE HRRR
TEMPERATURES TOP OUT NEAR NORMAL AGAIN TODAY, EXCEPT LOWER
SOUTH, WHERE CLOUDS, SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
AROUND EARLY. TEMPERATURES TOP OUT NEAR NORMAL TONIGHT, WARMER
THAN RECENT NIGHTS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST TO NORTHWEST.
AS OF 755 PM TUESDAY...
UPDATED TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS THIS EVENING TO REFLECT
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AROUND THE AREA. MUCH DRIER AIR TODAY KEPT
DEW POINTS DOWN IN THE 40S THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, SO
ADJUSTED DOWN ACCORDINGLY. OTHERWISE, REST OF THE FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK.
AS OF 145 PM TUESDAY...
INTRODUCED ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE EXTREME
SOUTHERN WV, NE KY AND EXTREME SW VA THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS POPCORN-LIKE CONVECTION FIRING ACROSS EASTERN KY
AT THE MOMENT OF WRITING. EXPECT SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY TO MOVE
OVER OUR AREA INTO THIS EVENING.
WEATHER CHARTS SHOW A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE NATION, WHILE AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH/LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES SOUTH INTO THE OH VALLEY AND WV.
WHILE THE DRY HIGH PRESSURE ACTS AS A SUPPRESSING FACTOR FOR
PRECIPITATION, A WEAK H500 SHORTWAVE MAY COMBINE WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE, ALLOWING FOR WEAK
ISOLATED CONVECTION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOW AN H500
VORTICITY MAXIMA MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN WV, SW VA AND NE KY THIS
EVENING. THIS FEATURE MAY BRING CLOUDS AND LOW CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING OVER THESE PLACES INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.
YET, A STRONGER H500 SHORTWAVE MOVES IN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. LIMITED
MOISTURE, AS SEEN WITH PWATS AROUND 1.3 INCHES, MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO
SUSTAIN WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. THEREFORE, ALLOWED CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ANY CONVECTION
WILL NOT SURVIVE SUNSET.
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD, GENERALLY
IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS, RANGING INTO THE MID
40S NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 80S LOWLANDS, RANGING INTO THE LOWER 60S NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 145 PM TUESDAY...
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, H850 FLOW INCREASES FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 25-30
KNOTS. THIS FLOW WILL INJECT ADEQUATE MOISTURE TO SUSTAIN WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY
SBCAPE EXCEEDING 2200 J/KG, DEEP LAYERED SHEAR 40-50 KNOTS,
HELICITIES EXCEEDING 100 M2/S2, AND PWATS AROUND 1.5 INCHES.
ALTHOUGH MOISTURE DOES NOT LOOK IMPRESSIVE, STRONG AND
ORGANIZED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS VERY LITTLE IN EXPECTED BENEFICIAL RAINFALL FOR
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, WIDESPREAD 0.5 TO 0.75 INCHES OF RAIN CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH THE COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD BE EASILY
MANAGED HYDROLOGICALLY GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT RATHER DRY CONDITIONS
ALTHOUGH A LOCALIZED/ISOLATED WATER ISSUE IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. WPC HAS THE AREA HIGHLIGHTED WITH A MARGINAL RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. DENSE FOG AND LOW STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF RAINFALL THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.
THE COLD FRONT EXITS EAST BY FRIDAY MORNING, ALLOWING A BRIEF HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD PROVIDING A MOSTLY DRY DAY. A REINFORCING BUT
RELATIVELY DRY COLD FRONT CROSSES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
TAKING TEMPERATURES DOWN AGAIN TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR ON THURSDAY GIVEN WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT. FOR FRIDAY,
STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW AT H850 INCREASES TO NEAR 40 KNOTS PUMPING
WARM AND MOISTURE ADVECTION TO THE AREA. THIS WILL WARM UP HIGHS
CLOSER TO NORMAL, GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS, RANGING INTO THE UPPER 60S NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 145 PM TUESDAY...
A BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE SECOND FRONT
TO PROVIDE DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND
AND THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
THEREFORE, EXPECT DRY AND COOL WEATHER TO FINISH OUT THE
WEEKEND, FOLLOWED BY TEMPERATURES BEGINNING TO MODERATE DURING
THE EARLY PORTION OF THE FOLLOWING WORK WEEK, AMID CONTINUED
DRY, BENIGN WEATHER, AS THE SURFACE HIGH BEGINS TO MOVE OUT.
AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 235 AM WEDNESDAY...
IFR TO VLIFR FOG IS LIKELY TO SET IN AT EKN 09-10Z AND THEN BURN
OFF 12-13Z, SIMILARLY AS TO RECENT NIGHTS. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATE.
A WEAK DISTURBANCE CROSSING TODAY WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SNEAKING BACK INTO SOUTHERN WV AND
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA THIS MORNING, AND THROUGHOUT THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON, AFTER A MULTI-DAY STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER. THIS
CONVECTION WILL DIE OFF AROUND SUNSET. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND
PLACEMENT WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR EXPLICIT INCLUSION IN THE TAFS
AT THIS POINT.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL BECOME LIGHT SOUTHWEST LATER THIS MORNING, AND
THEN LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. FLOW ALOFT WILL BE LIGHT
SOUTHWEST, INCREASING A BIT TONIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND INTENSITY OF FOG AT EKN
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT MAY VARY, AND FLUCTUATE MORE WIDELY THAN
INDICATED. AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED FOR DIRECT SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS AT TAF SITES TODAY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE WED 09/03/25
UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H L L M L L L M H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H L H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS WITHIN AN
ENCROACHING COLD FRONT THURSDAY. IFR POSSIBLE IN FOG AND STRATUS
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, AT LEAST IN AND
NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...TRM
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...TRM
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