739
FXUS61 KRLX 030959
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
559 AM EDT WED SEP 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK DISTURBANCE CROSSING TODAY BRINGS BACK THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS, WHICH INCREASES FURTHER AS COLD FRONTS
CROSS THURSDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 555 AM WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST ON TRACK, WITH ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS COMING AND
GOING IN FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
AS OF 235 AM WEDNESDAY...
A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH, WITH A WEAK LOW LEVEL
REFLECTION, OUT AHEAD OF A STRONG MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW DROPPING
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST, WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING, AND THE NAM MESO SUITE AND THE FV3 CORE SUGGEST
CONVECTION NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE TUG FORK BY DAYBREAK. WITH THE
HELP OF DIURNAL HEATING, DEW POINTS CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 60S
AND MUCAPE TO 500-100 J/KG, THIS SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL
SPREAD NORTHWARD THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
MODEST PW VALUES OF JUST OVER AN INCH AND THE H85 SOUTHWEST FEED
OF ONLY 15 KTS SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION TODAY SCATTERED, AS WELL
AS KEEPING CELLS FROM BECOMING STRONG OR HEAVY.
ANY CONVECTION AROUND THIS EVENING WILL DIE OFF AROUND SUNSET,
CONCURRENT WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING OFF TO THE EAST.
HOWEVER, THE STRONGER MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL DRIVE A SURFACE
COLD FRONT TOWARD THE AREA OVERNIGHT, CLOSE ENOUGH TO WHERE A
POSSIBLE LINE OF CONVECTION COULD SWEEP INTO THE AREA FROM WEST
BY DAWN THURSDAY. THIS IS SUGGESTED BY THE NAM MESO SUITE, THE
FV3 CORE AND THE HRRR
TEMPERATURES TOP OUT NEAR NORMAL AGAIN TODAY, EXCEPT LOWER
SOUTH, WHERE CLOUDS, SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
AROUND EARLY. TEMPERATURES TOP OUT NEAR NORMAL TONIGHT, WARMER
THAN RECENT NIGHTS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST TO NORTHWEST.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 335 AM WEDNESDAY...
THIS PERIOD PRESENTS A TALE OF TWO COLD FRONTS, AS CENTRAL TO
EASTERN NORTH AMERICAN LONG WAVE TROUGH AMPLIFICATION TAKES
PLACE. THE TRICK OF THE TALE HERE IS THAT, NOT ONLY IS THERE A
GOOD CHANCE OR PRECIPITATION WITH THE SECOND FRONT, IT IS
BEGINNING TO LOOK MORE LIKE PRECIPITATION WITH THE SECOND FRONT
MAY TURN OUT TO BE JUST AS WIDESPREAD AND QUANTITATIVE AS WITH
THE FIRST.
MOISTURE CONTENT IS FORECAST TO RECOVER ROBUSTLY AHEAD OF THE
SECOND FRONT, AND FORECAST MOISTURE PARAMETERS WITH THE TWO
FRONTS ARE AS FOLLOWS:
............THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT
FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY
NAM H85 FEED....25-30 KTS.................40-50 KTS
GFS H85 FEED....25-30 KTS.................30-40 KTS
NAM H85 THETA E.325 K.....................345 K
GFS H85 THETA E.325 K.....................335 K
NAM PW..........1.5 IN....................1.6 IN
GFS PW..........1.5 IN....................1.5 IN
DIURNAL TIMING..FAVORABLE.................UNFAVORABLE
CENTRAL GUIDANCE QPF WITH THE FIRST SYSTEM IS A THIRD OF AN
INCH TO NEARLY AN INCH, AND WITH THE SECOND SYSTEM, A TENTH TO A
HALF OF AN INCH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH EITHER SYSTEM SHOULD BE
EASILY MANAGED HYDROLOGICALLY GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT RATHER DRY
CONDITIONS.
FOR THE FIRST SYSTEM, THOUGH, UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON COULD LEAD TO TRAINING OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THEM, AS THE UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW DIMINISHES AND
THE FRONT SLOWS DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT, CELL MOVEMENT SLOWS. IT IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION HIGH WATER ISSUES COULD LOCALLY ARISE
WHERE REPETITIVE OR PERSISTENT CELLS OCCUR, UNTIL CELLS WEAKEN
THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE FIRST COLD FRONT ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY, AND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING AFTERNOON
PEAK HEATING AHEAD OF THE IT. WITH MODEST CAPE OF 500 TO 1000
J/KG AND 0-6/8 KM SHEAR OF 40 45 KTS, THUNDERSTORMS ANYWHERE
EAST OF THE FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON CAN ORGANIZE AND BECOME
STRONG.
THE FRONT THEN VIRTUALLY FALLS APART AS IT EASES SOUTHEAST OF
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. A BUBBLE HIGH BUILDING IN EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING IS A PRIME SETUP FOR FOG AND STRATUS IN THE WAKE OF THE
RAIN THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. BY AFTERNOON, SUNSHINE
FLOURISHES AMID STRENGTHENING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF
THE SECOND FRONT, AND MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW BACKS AHEAD OF SHORT
WAVE TROUGH DRIVING THE SECOND COLD FRONT TOWARD THE AREA.
THE SECOND FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT, AND THEN
PUSHES ON THROUGH ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE MORE PROGRESSIVE
THEN THE FIRST FRONT, AS A LARGE, SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
BUILDS IN BEHIND IT TO FINISH THE WEEKEND. PRECIPITATION SHOULD
THEREFORE BE HYDROLOGICALLY MANAGEABLE EVEN IF HIGHER THAN
CURRENTLY EXPECTED. CROSSING EARLIER IN THE DAY SATURDAY
COMPARED WITH THE FIRST FRONT ON THURSDAY, THE SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD BE MINIMAL, EVEN WITH COMPARABLE SHEAR.
THE FRONTS AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION HOLD HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS THURSDAY AND
SATURDAY, BUT SUNSHINE PROPELS TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS REFLECT A COUPLE OF COOL NIGHTS IN
SOUTHEAST OHIO, BUT CLOSER TO NORMAL ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE
OHIO RIVER.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 355 AM WEDNESDAY...
MODELS CONTINUE TO CONCUR ON A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THEN
BUILDING OVER THE AREA TO FINISH OUT THE WEEKEND, SPRAWLING
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST, OHIO VALLEY AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC. HOWEVER,
MID/UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHTS BUILD, AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH BEGINS
TO LIFT OUT. ALL OF THIS SPELLS DRY, COOL WEATHER TO FINISH OUT
THE WEEKEND, FOLLOWED BY TEMPERATURES BEGINNING TO MODERATE
DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF THE FOLLOWING WORK WEEK, AMID
CONTINUED DRY, BENIGN WEATHER, AS THE SURFACE HIGH BEGINS TO
MOVE OUT.
AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 555 AM WEDNESDAY...
ANY FOG ALONG THE TYGART VALLEY SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 13Z.
A WEAK DISTURBANCE CROSSING TODAY WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SNEAKING BACK INTO SOUTHERN WV AND
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA THIS MORNING, AND THROUGHOUT THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON, AFTER OUR RECENT MULTI-DAY STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER.
THIS CONVECTION WILL DIE OFF AROUND SUNSET. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
AND PLACEMENT WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR EXPLICIT INCLUSION IN THE
TAFS AT THIS POINT, AND VFR CONDITIONS OTHERWISE PREDOMINATE
INTO TONIGHT.
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT MAY ENTER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY BY DAWN THURSDAY.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL BECOME LIGHT SOUTHWEST LATER THIS MORNING, AND
THEN LIGHT SOUTH TONIGHT. FLOW ALOFT WILL BE LIGHT SOUTHWEST
TONIGHT, AND INCREASE TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT. THIS, AND
CLOUDS INCREASING AHEAD OF THE INCOMING SYSTEM, SHOULD PRECLUDE
OVERNIGHT FOG FORMATION TONIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED FOR DIRECT SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS AT TAF SITES TODAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT HTS AND PKB TOWARD DAWN THURSDAY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE WED 09/03/25
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H L L M M M M L H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H M M H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS WITHIN AN
ENCROACHING COLD FRONT THURSDAY. IFR POSSIBLE IN FOG AND STRATUS
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, AT LEAST IN AND
NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...TRM
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...TRM
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