593
FXUS61 KRLX 032357
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
757 PM EDT WED SEP 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS EVENING. CHANCES INCREASE
FURTHER AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THURSDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT, THEN
AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 750 PM WEDNESDAY...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEARBY KEEPING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALIVE AT THIS HOUR, THOUGH RADAR SUGGESTS THAT
MOST OF THESE ARE WEAKENING AND LOSING ANY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
WITH SUNSET. STILL, LIGHTNING AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY MORE ORGANIZED CELLS.
AS OF 145 PM WEDNESDAY...
A DEPARTING H500 WEAK SHORTWAVE, TOGETHER WITH THE AFTERNOON HEATING
AND LIMITED AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL PROMOTE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANY CONVECTION
WILL DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
ACROSS SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA, SW VIRGINIA, AND NE KENTUCKY.
HOWEVER, RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT.
EXPECT RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT. HOWEVER, MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EARLY THURSDAY AS A COLD
FRONT CROSSES EAST INTO THURSDAY EVENING. UNDER AN ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY SBCAPE REACHING 2,000 J/KG, DEEP LAYERED SHEAR 40-
50 KNOTS, HELICITY VALUES EXCEEDING 100 M2/S2 AND PWATS UP TO 1
INCH, SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP, WITH
DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT. SPC HIGHLIGHTED OUR ENTIRE
AREA UNDER A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY.
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL, RANGING FROM 0.50 TO 0.75 INCHES COULD
ALLEVIATE THE CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS EXPERIENCED ACROSS THE
REGION FOR SOME BUT NOT ALL THE AREA.
SOUTHWEST H850 FLOW ABOUT 30 KNOTS WILL KEEP NIGHTTIME
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 60S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS, RANGING INTO
THE LOWE 50S NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS AND
COOLING SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW BELOW
NORMAL HIGHS, REACHING THE MID 70S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS RANGING
INTO THE MID 60S NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS FOR THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 145 PM WEDNESDAY...
LINGERING SHOWER OR STORM ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT AS
THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY EXITS EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING. A
BRIEF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS FRIDAY PROVIDING MOSTLY DRY
WEATHER CONDITIONS. STRONG SOUTHWEST (30-40 KNOTS) H850 FLOW
DEVELOPS FRIDAY, BRINGING WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT. HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL, GENERALLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS, RANGING INTO THE LOWER 70S
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS.
A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE WEEK, TO PRODUCE A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND WV FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS
FEATURE WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INTO
SATURDAY. LINGERING SHOWERS WILL STILL POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT
ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEHAVE LIKE A ROLLERCOASTER, WARMER AHEAD OF THE
FRONTS, AND COOLER BEHIND EAST FRONT THIS WEEK. WHILE HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S, BY SATURDAY HIGHS WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS, AND THE LOWER 60S
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 145 PM WEDNESDAY...
A BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS BEHIND SATURDAY'S FRONT
TO PROVIDE DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES BEGINNING TO MODERATE DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF THE
WORK WEEK, AMID CONTINUED DRY, BENIGN WEATHER, AS THE SURFACE HIGH
BEGINS TO MOVE OUT.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 755 PM WEDNESDAY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE AREA THIS EVENING WILL
LIKELY CREATE SOME RESTRICTIONS AT SITES THAT ARE IMPACTED. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL NOT LAST LONG PAST ~00Z, SO JUST ALLOWED FOR
TEMPO GROUPS AT SITES THAT ARE HIGHER CONFIDENCE FOR IT.
OTHERWISE, VFR WILL RESUME FOR MOST LOCATIONS LATER THIS
EVENING, OUTSIDE OF POSSIBLE LOW STRATUS FORMATION AT EKN WHERE
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. LIGHT S'RLY WINDS AND CLOUD COVER
OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY KEEP FOG FORMATION AT BAY FOR MOST OF THE
USUAL SPOTS.
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS, SOME HEAVY AT
TIMES, RETURN EARLY THURSDAY MORNING (~10-12Z) WITH A FRONT
THAT WILL APPROACH THE AREA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LINGER INTO
THURSDAY AFTERNOON IFR OR LOWER IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG COULD END UP FORMING IF WINDS GO CALM
AND SKIES CLEAR UP OVERNIGHT. TIMING FOR LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY MORNING COULD VARY FROM FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
EDT 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M L
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS WITHIN AN
ENCROACHING COLD FRONT THURSDAY EVENING. IFR POSSIBLE IN FOG
AND STRATUS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, AT
LEAST IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/LTC
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...LTC
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