667
FXUS61 KRLX 040643
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
243 AM EDT THU SEP 4 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT BRINGS SHOWERS AND STORMS, SOME STRONG, TODAY, THEN
ANOTHER BRINGS SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE STORMS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WITH COOL, DRY WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 240 AM THURSDAY...
TODAY WILL BE AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY WITH A COLD FRONT BRINGING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS CAN BRING
STRONG WIND GUSTS, AND THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR AND EAST OF THE OHIO RIVER, FOR A LOW END
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
THE TRICK OF THE TALE IS THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF POSSIBLE
MULTIPLE LINES OR CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS
INCLUDING CAMS VARY IN THE TIMING OF THE INITIAL LINE THAT
ENTERED WESTERN OHIO VERY EARLY THIS MORNING, AND WILL ENTER THE
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING, POSSIBLY STILL PRODUCING
STRONG WIND GUSTS, BEFORE DAWN.
A MAJORITY OF THE MODELS, THE GFS, NAM SUITE, HRRR, HIRESWFV3
AND RAP ALL SLING THE INITIAL LINE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING,
INDICATING IT WILL BE ORGANIZED AND STRONG WHILE ALSO ALLOWING
RECOVERY FOR ANOTHER STRONG LINE OR CLUSTER THIS AFTERNOON.
POTENTIAL PEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD BE ABOUT A KJ PER KG BOTH
AHEAD OF THE INITIAL LINE LATER THIS MORNING, AND THE SECOND
LINE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WHERE AND WHEN THAT CAN BE REALIZED,
BULK 0-6 AND 0-8 KM SHEAR OF 40 TO 50 KTS WILL SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
25 KTS SOUTHWEST H85 FEED, 325 K H85 THETA E, AND PW VALUES UP
TO 1.4 INCHES ARE RATHER MODEST VALUES FOR HEAVY RAINFALL, AND
IT WOULD TAKE TRAINING OF STORMS AMID UNIDIRECTIONAL TODAY, OR
SLOWER MOVING STORMS THIS EVENING, TO PRODUCED LOCALIZED HIGH
WATER ISSUES IN SPOTS VULNERABLE TO POOR DRAINAGE AMID OUR
ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS.
THE COLD FRONT ITSELF WILL ACTUALLY WASH OUT AS IT ENTER THE
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, AND LEAVING
BEHIND PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AMID LIGHT FLOW.
THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION HOLD HIGHS IN
THE 60S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY, AS WELL AS
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS, TODAY. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL FLUCTUATE
WITH THE MULTIPLE LINES OR CLUSTERS. WITH THE FRONT WASHING OUT
TONIGHT, COOLING WILL BE LIMITED TO SOUTHEAST OHIO, WITH LOWS
NEAR NORMAL SOUTHEAST OF THE OHIO RIVER.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 145 PM WEDNESDAY...
LINGERING SHOWER OR STORM ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT AS
THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY EXITS EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING. A
BRIEF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS FRIDAY PROVIDING MOSTLY DRY
WEATHER CONDITIONS. STRONG SOUTHWEST (30-40 KNOTS) H850 FLOW
DEVELOPS FRIDAY, BRINGING WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT. HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL, GENERALLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS, RANGING INTO THE LOWER 70S
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS.
A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE WEEK, TO PRODUCE A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND WV FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS
FEATURE WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INTO
SATURDAY. LINGERING SHOWERS WILL STILL POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT
ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEHAVE LIKE A ROLLERCOASTER, WARMER AHEAD OF THE
FRONTS, AND COOLER BEHIND EAST FRONT THIS WEEK. WHILE HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S, BY SATURDAY HIGHS WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS, AND THE LOWER 60S
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 145 PM WEDNESDAY...
A BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS BEHIND SATURDAY'S FRONT
TO PROVIDE DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES BEGINNING TO MODERATE DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF THE
WORK WEEK, AMID CONTINUED DRY, BENIGN WEATHER, AS THE SURFACE HIGH
BEGINS TO MOVE OUT.
AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 240 AM THURSDAY...
TODAY WILL BE AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY WITH A COLD FRONT BRINGING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS CAN BRING
STRONG WIND GUSTS, AND THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR AND EAST OF THE OHIO RIVER, FOR A LOW END
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. WHILE THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS WERE CODED UP IN THE TAFS, ANY THUNDERSTORM TODAY CAN
PRODUCE STRONGER WIND GUSTS THAN INDICATED, ALONG WITH IFR TO
LIFR CONDITIONS.
THE COLD FRONT ITSELF WILL ACTUALLY WASH OUT AS IT ENTER THE
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, AND TONIGHT
WILL BRING MVFR STRATOCUMULUS AND MIST.
OUTSIDE THUNDERSTORMS, SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL GUST TO 15
TO 20 KTS AT TIMES TODAY, BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT. FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN MODERATE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD, NEARLY STRONG ENOUGH FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR EARLY
THIS MORNING AND POSSIBLY AGAIN TONIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z
FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING FOR MULTIPLE LINES OR CLUSTERS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD VARY TODAY. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITY IN STRATOCUMULUS AND POST-RAIN MIST AMID LIGHT FLOW
TONIGHT COULD VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE THU 09/04/25
UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H L M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H M M M L L L L L M H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN FOG AND STRATUS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, IFR POSSIBLE
IN HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS WITHIN ANOTHER COLD FRONT FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. IFR POSSIBLE IN FOG AND STRATUS AGAIN EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING, AT LEAST IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...TRM
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...TRM
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