273
FXUS61 KRLX 041037
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
637 AM EDT THU SEP 4 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT BRINGS SHOWERS AND STORMS, SOME STRONG, TODAY, THEN
ANOTHER BRINGS SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE STORMS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WITH COOL, DRY WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 635 AM THURSDAY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ROLLING ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY
EARLY THIS MORNING HAD WEAKENED, WITH PEAK WIND GUSTS IN THE 20
TO 30 MPH RANGE. THE FORECAST WAS ON TRACK.
AS OF 240 AM THURSDAY...
TODAY WILL BE AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY WITH A COLD FRONT BRINGING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS CAN BRING
STRONG WIND GUSTS, AND THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR AND EAST OF THE OHIO RIVER, FOR A LOW END
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
THE TRICK OF THE TALE IS THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF POSSIBLE
MULTIPLE LINES OR CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS
INCLUDING CAMS VARY IN THE TIMING OF THE INITIAL LINE THAT
ENTERED WESTERN OHIO VERY EARLY THIS MORNING, AND WILL ENTER THE
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING, POSSIBLY STILL PRODUCING
STRONG WIND GUSTS, BEFORE DAWN.
A MAJORITY OF THE MODELS, THE GFS, NAM SUITE, HRRR, HIRESWFV3
AND RAP ALL SLING THE INITIAL LINE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING,
INDICATING IT WILL BE ORGANIZED AND STRONG WHILE ALSO ALLOWING
RECOVERY FOR ANOTHER STRONG LINE OR CLUSTER THIS AFTERNOON.
POTENTIAL PEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD BE ABOUT A KJ PER KG BOTH
AHEAD OF THE INITIAL LINE LATER THIS MORNING, AND THE SECOND
LINE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WHERE AND WHEN THAT CAN BE REALIZED,
BULK 0-6 AND 0-8 KM SHEAR OF 40 TO 50 KTS WILL SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
25 KTS SOUTHWEST H85 FEED, 325 K H85 THETA E, AND PW VALUES UP
TO 1.4 INCHES ARE RATHER MODEST VALUES FOR HEAVY RAINFALL, AND
IT WOULD TAKE TRAINING OF STORMS AMID UNIDIRECTIONAL TODAY, OR
SLOWER MOVING STORMS THIS EVENING, TO PRODUCED LOCALIZED HIGH
WATER ISSUES IN SPOTS VULNERABLE DUE TO POOR DRAINAGE
CONDITIONS AMID OUR ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS.
THE COLD FRONT ITSELF WILL ACTUALLY WASH OUT AS IT ENTER THE
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, AND LEAVING
BEHIND PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AMID LIGHT FLOW.
THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION HOLD HIGHS IN
THE 60S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY, AS WELL AS
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS, TODAY. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL FLUCTUATE
WITH THE MULTIPLE LINES OR CLUSTERS. WITH THE FRONT WASHING OUT
TONIGHT, COOLING WILL BE LIMITED TO SOUTHEAST OHIO, WITH LOWS
NEAR NORMAL SOUTHEAST OF THE OHIO RIVER.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 350 AM THURSDAY...
THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH AMID THE CENTRAL TO
EASTERN NORTH AMERICAN LONG WAVE TROUGH AMPLIFICATION WILL PUSH
A SECOND COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
THE FRONT COULD GET CLOSE ENOUGH FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FORMING AHEAD OF IT FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO REACH THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY FRIDAY EVENING.
COMPARED TO THE FIRST FRONT CROSSING THE AREA IN THE NEAR TERM,
THIS SECOND FRONT WILL HAVE MORE ROBUST PARAMETERS TO WORK WITH
AHEAD OF IT, IN THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY. WITH SUNSHINE
PROPELLING TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S, AND H85 THETA E
VALUES UP TO 345 K, CAPE COULD REACH 2500 J/KG. AMID BULK 0-6
AND 0-8 KM SHEAR OF 40 TO 50 KTS, THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE
STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY
EVENING. THIS IS WHERE THE NORTHEAST EXTENT OF A LARGE CORRIDOR
OF MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN PLACED BY THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER FOR THE DAY 2 OUTLOOK.
IN ADDITION, SPC HAS INCLUDED A 2 PERCENT TORNADO THREAT TO GO
ALONG WITH THE 5 PERCENT DAMAGING WIND THREAT, ON ACCOUNT OF 0-1
KM SHEAR OF 20 KTS DRIVING THE SIGNIFICANT TORNADO PARAMETER TO
CLOSE TO 2.
FINALLY, WITH PW VALUES PEAKING CLOSE TO TWO INCHES, AND DRY
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS SOMEWHAT DAMPENED BY THE NEAR TERM
SYSTEM, HEAVY RAINFALL CAN PRODUCE LOCALIZED HIGH WATER ISSUES
IN SPOTS VULNERABLE DUE TO POOR DRAINAGE CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE,
THE RAIN, WHICH COULD RANGE ANOTHER THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH
TO NEARLY AN INCH ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY, WILL STILL BE
DESPERATELY NEEDED.
LIKE THE FIRST FRONT, THIS SECOND FRONT WILL LOSE ITS PUSH AS
MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW BACKS AGAIN, AND A BUBBLE HIGH BUILDS IN
BEHIND IT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT BELOW
NORMAL BEHIND THE FRONT IN SOUTHEAST OHIO SATURDAY MORNING, BUT
CLOSE TO NORMAL AHEAD OF IT SOUTHEAST OF THE OHIO RIVER. THE
FRONT AND RAIN WILL MAKE SATURDAY SIGNIFICANTLY, IF NOT ALMOST
RUDELY, COOLER THAN FRIDAY, WITH HIGHS IN TH E 60S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY, AS WELL AS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 350 AM THURSDAY...
CENTRAL TO EASTERN NORTH AMERICAN LONG WAVE TROUGH
AMPLIFICATION WILL FINALLY PUSH A DRY, COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS
ROBUSTLY INTO THE AREA TO START THE NEW WEEK, BEHIND A TERTIARY
COLD FRONT THAT CROSSES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE FRONT
SHOULD NOT PRODUCE MUCH PRECIPITATION LET ALONE HAZARDS, AND
THE LARGE CANADIAN HIGH REPRESENTING THE DRY, COOL AIR MASS
BUILDS INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE HIGH MOVES OUT MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS MID/UPPER-LEVEL
HEIGHTS BUILD, BUT SURFACE RIDGING REACHES BACK INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHEAST INTO MIDWEEK. WITH BUILDING MID/UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING JUST TO THE WEST, DRY WEATHER HOLDS THROUGH MIDWEEK.
TEMPERATURES RUN BELOW NORMAL, LOWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK, BEFORE
MODERATING HEADING INTO MIDWEEK.
AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 635 AM THURSDAY...
TODAY WILL BE AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY WITH A COLD FRONT BRINGING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS MAY COME IN SEVERAL LINES OR
CLUSTERS, THE FIRST OF WHICH ARRIVED IN THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY
EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS WV THIS
MORNING, AND MAY STRENGTHEN AS THEY APPROACH THE MOUNTAINS
LATER THIS MORNING IF SUFFICIENT DAYTIME HEATING CAN BE
REALIZED AHEAD OF THEM.
SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS IN A SECOND LINE OR CLUSTER FORMING
BACK NEARER THE COLD FRONT OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY TODAY
CAN BRING STRONG WIND GUSTS AS THEY CROSS WV THIS AFTERNOON, IF
ENOUGH HEATING CAN BE REALIZED BETWEEN THE MORNING ROUND AND
THIS ROUND. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
NEAR AND EAST OF THE OHIO RIVER FOR A LOW END POTENTIAL FOR
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
PROB30 GROUPS WERE INCLUDED FOR AIRFIELDS EAST OF THE OHIO
RIVER, FOR WIND GUSTS TO 30 KTS AND MVFR CONDITIONS IN
THUNDERSTORM 15-21Z CRW, 18-21Z CKB AND EKN, AND 21-24Z BKW.
HOWEVER, ANY THUNDERSTORM TODAY CAN PRODUCE STRONGER WIND GUSTS
THAN INDICATED, ALONG WITH IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS.
THE COLD FRONT ITSELF WILL ACTUALLY WASH OUT AS IT ENTERS THE
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, AND TONIGHT
WILL BRING MVFR STRATOCUMULUS AND MIST THAT COULD LOWER TO IFR
STATUS AND FOG OVERNIGHT AT LEAST AT EKN AND CKB. HOWEVER, THERE
MAY BE IMPROVEMENT BEFORE DAWN AS LIGHT SOUTH WIND KICK IN
BEHIND THE EXITING HIGH.
OUTSIDE THUNDERSTORMS, SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL GUST TO 15
TO 20 KTS AT TIMES TODAY, BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT, POSSIBLY BECOMING LIGHT SOUTH BEFORE DAWN. FLOW ALOFT
WILL REMAIN MODERATE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD, NEARLY STRONG
ENOUGH FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR EARLY THIS MORNING AND POSSIBLY
AGAIN TONIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z
FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING FOR AND IMPACTS FROM MULTIPLE LINES
OR CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD VARY TODAY.
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY IN STRATOCUMULUS/STRATUS AND POST-RAIN
MIST/FOG AMID LIGHT FLOW TONIGHT COULD VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE THU 09/04/25
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H M M H H M H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M
EKN CONSISTENCY H H L L L L L L M M H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN FOG AND STRATUS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, IFR POSSIBLE
IN HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS WITHIN ANOTHER COLD FRONT FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. IFR POSSIBLE IN FOG AND STRATUS AGAIN EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING, AT LEAST IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...TRM
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...TRM
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page