144
FXUS61 KRLX 041529
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1129 AM EDT THU SEP 4 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT BRINGS SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO TODAY. A GREATER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS SUNDAY WITH DRY WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 1123 AM THURSDAY...
A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY TODAY, AND MUCH-
NEEDED RAINFALL IS SPREADING EAST AHEAD OF IT. ACCORDING TO SPC,
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER LATER THIS AFTERNOON,
DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT OF CLEARING AND DESTABILIZATION THAT COULD
OCCUR AFTER THIS FIRST SWATH OF RAIN. RADAR AND SATELLITE CURRENTLY
SHOW A WIDESPREAD STRATUS DECK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY, AND AT THIS
POINT, WE'RE THINKING THAT THE CHANCE OF SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION
FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW TODAY. DESPITE LOW
INSTABILITY, 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL BE AMPLE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT, WITH 30-40 KTS EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
VERTICAL WIND PROFILES ARE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW GUSTY SHOWERS.
THE PROBABILITY OF FLOODING IS VERY LOW TODAY DUE TO THE DRY
WEATHER OVER THE PAST MONTH. EXPECT ANYWHERE FROM 0.25-0.75" OF
RAINFALL TODAY.
A SECONDARY REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE
FRIDAY. THIS COULD BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER THAN
TODAY WITH MORE DESTABILIZATION EXPECTED BY THE LATE AFTERNOON, WITH
SOME MODELS PREDICTING ANYWHERE FROM 1,000-2,000 J/KG OF MLCAPE
DEVELOPING BY 18-00Z. IN ADDITION, SHEAR WILL BE AMPLE FOR
THUNDERSTORM ORGANIZATION. CAMS ARE STILL TRYING TO IRON OUT
THUNDERSTORM TIMING, BUT CURRENT PROJECTIONS SHOW THE BEST CHANCE
COULD BE CLOSE TO 00Z SATURDAY.
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TODAY, BUT
FRIDAY WILL BE A MUCH WARMER DAY WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE INTO THE
MIDDLE 80S WITH MORE SUNSHINE.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1123 AM THURSDAY...
POST-FRONTAL CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL LINGER SATURDAY WITH MUCH
COOLER WEATHER AREAWIDE. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS. CLEARING SATURDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.
SUNDAY WILL FEATURE THE BEST WEATHER OF THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 70S UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES BRINGS A REFRESHING NORTHERLY BREEZE.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 1123 AM THURSDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY WITH ANOTHER
COMFORTABLE DAY ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER AROUND THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN TUESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TO THE EAST AND WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY AGAIN.
EXPECT HIGHS TO REBOUND BACK INTO THE 80S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS BY
MIDWEEK.
AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 635 AM THURSDAY...
TODAY WILL BE AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY WITH A COLD FRONT BRINGING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS MAY COME IN SEVERAL LINES OR
CLUSTERS, THE FIRST OF WHICH ARRIVED IN THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY
EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS WV THIS
MORNING, AND MAY STRENGTHEN AS THEY APPROACH THE MOUNTAINS
LATER THIS MORNING IF SUFFICIENT DAYTIME HEATING CAN BE
REALIZED AHEAD OF THEM.
SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS IN A SECOND LINE OR CLUSTER FORMING
BACK NEARER THE COLD FRONT OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY TODAY
CAN BRING STRONG WIND GUSTS AS THEY CROSS WV THIS AFTERNOON, IF
ENOUGH HEATING CAN BE REALIZED BETWEEN THE MORNING ROUND AND
THIS ROUND. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
NEAR AND EAST OF THE OHIO RIVER FOR A LOW END POTENTIAL FOR
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
PROB30 GROUPS WERE INCLUDED FOR AIRFIELDS EAST OF THE OHIO
RIVER, FOR WIND GUSTS TO 30 KTS AND MVFR CONDITIONS IN
THUNDERSTORM 15-21Z CRW, 18-21Z CKB AND EKN, AND 21-24Z BKW.
HOWEVER, ANY THUNDERSTORM TODAY CAN PRODUCE STRONGER WIND GUSTS
THAN INDICATED, ALONG WITH IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS.
THE COLD FRONT ITSELF WILL ACTUALLY WASH OUT AS IT ENTERS THE
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, AND TONIGHT
WILL BRING MVFR STRATOCUMULUS AND MIST THAT COULD LOWER TO IFR
STATUS AND FOG OVERNIGHT AT LEAST AT EKN AND CKB. HOWEVER, THERE
MAY BE IMPROVEMENT BEFORE DAWN AS LIGHT SOUTH WIND KICK IN
BEHIND THE EXITING HIGH.
OUTSIDE THUNDERSTORMS, SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL GUST TO 15
TO 20 KTS AT TIMES TODAY, BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT, POSSIBLY BECOMING LIGHT SOUTH BEFORE DAWN. FLOW ALOFT
WILL REMAIN MODERATE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD, NEARLY STRONG
ENOUGH FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR EARLY THIS MORNING AND POSSIBLY
AGAIN TONIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING FOR AND IMPACTS FROM MULTIPLE LINES
OR CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD VARY TODAY.
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY IN STRATOCUMULUS/STRATUS AND POST-RAIN
MIST/FOG AMID LIGHT FLOW TONIGHT COULD VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
EDT 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
CRW CONSISTENCY H H M H H H H H H M M M
HTS CONSISTENCY H M M H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H M L L M M H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H M M L H H H H H H M
PKB CONSISTENCY H M L M M H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H L L H H L H H H H H
AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN FOG AND STRATUS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, IFR POSSIBLE
IN HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS WITHIN ANOTHER COLD FRONT FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. IFR POSSIBLE IN FOG AND STRATUS AGAIN EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING, AT LEAST IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JMC
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...TRM
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