975
FXUS61 KRLX 042341
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
741 PM EDT THU SEP 4 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT BRINGS SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING. A GREATER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS SUNDAY WITH DRY WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 740 PM THURSDAY...
NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST. CLOUD COVER AND STRATIFORM
RAIN KEPT CONDITIONS FROM DESTABILIZING ENOUGH THIS AFTERNOON TO
PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. NONETHELESS, A
BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS IS CURRENTLY SWEEPING THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN LOWLANDS OF WV AS A COLD FRONT SITES ALONG OUR WESTERN
PERIPHERY. HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND EMBEDDED LIGHTNING ARE THE MAIN
RISKS WITH THESE, BUT A LOCALIZED STRONG DOWNBURST OR TWO MAY
OCCUR IN THE TAIL-END CELLS OR ANY LEADING CELLS AHEAD OF THE
LINE. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN SEVERE ACTIVITY THE REST OF THE
EVENING GIVEN LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
AS OF 1123 AM THURSDAY...
A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY TODAY, AND MUCH-
NEEDED RAINFALL IS SPREADING EAST AHEAD OF IT. ACCORDING TO SPC,
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER LATER THIS AFTERNOON,
DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT OF CLEARING AND DESTABILIZATION THAT COULD
OCCUR AFTER THIS FIRST SWATH OF RAIN. RADAR AND SATELLITE CURRENTLY
SHOW A WIDESPREAD STRATUS DECK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY, AND AT THIS
POINT, WE'RE THINKING THAT THE CHANCE OF SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION
FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW TODAY. DESPITE LOW
INSTABILITY, 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL BE AMPLE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT, WITH 30-40 KTS EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
VERTICAL WIND PROFILES ARE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW GUSTY SHOWERS.
THE PROBABILITY OF FLOODING IS VERY LOW TODAY DUE TO THE DRY
WEATHER OVER THE PAST MONTH. EXPECT ANYWHERE FROM 0.25-0.75" OF
RAINFALL TODAY.
A SECONDARY REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE
FRIDAY. THIS COULD BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER THAN
TODAY WITH MORE DESTABILIZATION EXPECTED BY THE LATE AFTERNOON, WITH
SOME MODELS PREDICTING ANYWHERE FROM 1,000-2,000 J/KG OF MLCAPE
DEVELOPING BY 18-00Z. IN ADDITION, SHEAR WILL BE AMPLE FOR
THUNDERSTORM ORGANIZATION. CAMS ARE STILL TRYING TO IRON OUT
THUNDERSTORM TIMING, BUT CURRENT PROJECTIONS SHOW THE BEST CHANCE
COULD BE CLOSE TO 00Z SATURDAY.
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TODAY, BUT
FRIDAY WILL BE A MUCH WARMER DAY WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE INTO THE
MIDDLE 80S WITH MORE SUNSHINE.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1123 AM THURSDAY...
POST-FRONTAL CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL LINGER SATURDAY WITH MUCH
COOLER WEATHER AREAWIDE. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS. CLEARING SATURDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.
SUNDAY WILL FEATURE THE BEST WEATHER OF THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 70S UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES BRINGS A REFRESHING NORTHERLY BREEZE.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 1123 AM THURSDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY WITH ANOTHER
COMFORTABLE DAY ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER AROUND THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN TUESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TO THE EAST AND WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY AGAIN.
EXPECT HIGHS TO REBOUND BACK INTO THE 80S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS BY
MIDWEEK.
AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 733 PM THURSDAY...
A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IS CURRENTLY
TRAVERSING THE LOWLANDS AND WILL BE CLOSING IN ON CKB AND EKN IN
THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. LIGHTNING AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL
ACCOMPANY WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. AFTER THIS ACTIVITY
DISSIPATES, VFR WILL RESUME, HOWEVER ITS WINDOW WILL BE BRIEF AS
CALM WINDS WILL PROMOTE FOG AND LOW STRATUS FORMATION AT MOST
SITES OVERNIGHT. IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. LIGHT
WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN IN PLACE AT HTS AND PKB DUE TO A COLD FRONT
LINGERING NEARBY, SO FOG MAY NOT BE QUITE AS DENSE AT THESE
LOCATIONS.
VFR RESUMES BY ~13-14Z FRIDAY WITH BREEZY TO GUSTY SW'RLY WINDS
PICKING UP ABOUT THE SAME TIME AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. BY ~00Z
SATURDAY, MODELS SHOW A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
CROSSING THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST. STRONG, DAMAGING WINDS WILL
BE THE PRIMARY THREAT, BUT THERE IS THE CHANCE FOR A TORNADO,
ALTHOUGH THE CHANCE IS ON THE LOWER SIDE. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL
ALSO ACCOMPANY ANY CELLS AND COULD SMALL HAIL.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING, LOCATION, AND INTENSITY OF FOG/LOW
STRATUS AND SHOWERS/STORMS COULD VARY FROM THE FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
EDT 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M L L
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M L L L
PKB CONSISTENCY H M H H H H H H H H H M
CKB CONSISTENCY M H H M H H H M M H H H
AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS WITHIN ANOTHER COLD
FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. IFR POSSIBLE IN FOG AND STRATUS
AGAIN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, AT LEAST IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JMC
NEAR TERM...LTC/JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...LTC
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