628
FXUS61 KRLX 050510
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
110 AM EDT FRI SEP 5 2025
SYNOPSIS
A LATE SUMMER SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TRANSPIRES LATE TODAY AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT. ACTIVE WEATHER REMAINS FOR THE START OF THE
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 110 AM FRIDAY...
KEY POINTS:
* A LOITERING BOUNDARY LIFTS AS A WARM FRONT TODAY, YIELDING
STRONG DAYTIME HEATING FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
* THIS WILL PRIME THE ATMOSPHERE TO BECOME UNSTABLE LATE TODAY
AHEAD OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT.
* SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL FIRST DEVELOP
IN THE CENTRAL TENNESSEE VALLEY AND QUICKLY TRAVEL INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING.
* STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
LARGE HAIL. QUICK SPIN-UP TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH
TONIGHT'S ACTIVITY.
A VERTICALLY STACKED DISTURBANCE POSITIONED OVER CANADA AND THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SERVE UP A LATE SEASON CHANCE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER HERE IN THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE LATE NIGHT PERIOD TONIGHT.
FOR EARLY THIS MORNING, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ANALYZED TO BE
SLICING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. A BREEZY MID TO LEVEL UPPER
LEVEL JET WILL NUDGE THIS BOUNDARY NORTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING IN THE FORM OF A WARM FRONT AND WILL ENCOURAGE
SUFFICIENT DIURNAL HEATING TO TAKE SHAPE FOR AREAS SOUTH OF THE
FRONT. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON AS A RESULT WILL RISE INTO
THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS, A FEAT
THAT HASN'T BEEN OBSERVED SINCE THE MIDDLE OF AUGUST.
AS A SURFACE LOW ATTACHED TO OUR STACKED DISTURBANCE IS DRIVEN
TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY, IT WILL DRIVE A STRONGER
SECONDARY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS FEATURE WILL
CAPITALIZE ON THE STRONG DIURNAL HEATING, WITH FORECAST SURFACE
CAPE READINGS PROGGED TO REACH ABOVE 2000 J/KG BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. HI-RES SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY
MODELS DEPICT INITIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TAKING SHAPE ACROSS
CENTRAL TENNESSEE/KENTUCKY AROUND 3 TO 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON AND
WILL GROW NORTHEASTWARD IN EARNEST QUICKLY INTO OUR FORECAST
AREA AMID THE WARM AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT SET IN PLACE DURING
PEAK HEATING HOURS. NOTABLE BUOYANCY AND BULK SHEAR PARAMETERS
PRECEDING THE FRONT WILL YIELD POTENTIAL FOR ALL SEVERE THREATS
WITHIN MATURE STORMS TODAY. LONG-LIVED STORMS THAT TRAVEL AND/OR
DEVELOP IN THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND ROTATION WITHIN SUPERCELLS
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THIS EVENING AND LATE NIGHT HOURS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS PREVAIL INTO OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS
THE SECONDARY FRONT SLOWLY TRACKS EASTWARD. INSTABILITY TRAILS
OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT, WHICH WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
HEADING INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, RAIN AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WILL LINK THE END OF THE NEAR TERM AND START OF THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST PERIOD AS THE FRONT REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 110 AM FRIDAY...
MODELS HAVE TRENDED WITH A MORE ACTIVE START TO THE WEEKEND IN
COMPARISON TO PAST FORECAST CYCLES. THE SECONDARY COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE FIRST NOTED ABOVE WILL BE UNDERWAY AT THE START OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD, WITH SUPPORT FROM AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN
STEADY POPS ON THE ORDER OF 50% TO 75% INITIALLY ON SATURDAY
MORNING, WHEN THE BOUNDARY SLICES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. AS
THE FRONT MAKES SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS, INSTABILITY ALONG AND
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL BEGIN TO SUPPORT EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY FOR THE
AFTERNOON. THE FRONT IS THEN SLATED TO REACH THE DELMARVA REGION
BY SATURDAY EVENING, WHICH SHOULD BRING THE END TO SHOWERS HERE
IN THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS LATE THAT NIGHT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BEGIN TO TAKE CENTER STAGE FOR
THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE VAST MAJORITY OF NEXT WEEK.
THE FRONT CONTINUES TO DASH OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY AND THE EASTERN
FRINGES OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN TAKE STAKE OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. A DRY FORECAST WILL THEN COMMENCE AMID AMPLE SUNSHINE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS RANGING IN THE 60S AND
70S, AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 110 AM FRIDAY...
THE NEW WORK WEEK FORECAST ADVERTISES MOSTLY DRY WEATHER AS
ROBUST HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE SETTLES INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS WILL PROHIBIT SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT DURING
ITS RESIDENCY, WITH THE CLOSEST FORM OF PRECIPITATION STAYING
HUNDREDS OF MILES TO THE SOUTH ALONG THE GULF COAST. THIS
SURFACE FEATURE SHIFTS TO THE EAST AROUND MIDWEEK, BUT SHOULD
RETAIN ENOUGH INFLUENCE TO MAINTAIN LITTLE TO NO CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE END OF THE VALID FORECAST PERIOD.
COOLER WEATHER OPENS UP THE LONG TERM PERIOD, WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS ON MONDAY PROJECTED TO PLATEAU IN THE 60S ALONG THE
MOUNTAINS AND 70S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. SOME SPOTS IN THE
NORTHEAST WV MOUNTAINS COULD ALSO WAKE UP TO PATCHY FROST MONDAY
MORNING AS OVERNIGHT LOWS TUMBLE DOWN INTO THE UPPER 30S. AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH SLIDES EASTWARD, A SUBTLE
WARMING TREND TAKES SHAPE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO SEASONABLE NORMS FOR TUESDAY ONWARD.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 110 AM FRIDAY...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLICING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL YIELD MOMENTS OF LOW STRATUS AND RIVER VALLEY FOG
THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS. BREEZY FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE DENOTED
ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS IMPOSE CONCERNS OF HOW STRONG IFR OR WORSE
CONDITIONS WILL HOLD OVER THE AREA, SO WILL OPT FOR TEMPO GROUPS
THROUGH THE MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR SITES BOUNCING IN AND OUT OF
RESTRICTIONS.
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LOITER OVER THE AREA
TODAY BEFORE A STRONG BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING WILL YIELD
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO FORM THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF
THE FRONT, SOME OF WHICH COULD BECOME SEVERE. ALL HAZARDS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITHIN SEVERE DEVELOPMENT TODAY. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES PREVAIL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO THE START OF
THE WEEKEND. AS THE SECONDARY FRONT PRESSES OVERHEAD, LOWERED
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL ROUND OUT THE VALID TAF PERIOD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING, LOCATION, AND INTENSITY OF FOG/LOW
STRATUS AND SHOWERS/STORMS COULD VARY FROM THE FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE FRI 09/05/25
UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H L L L L M M L L H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M L H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H L L H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H M M M M M M M M M M H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H L L M M L L L M H
CKB CONSISTENCY H M M M L H H M L M H H
AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN LOW CEILINGS AND RIVER VALLEY FOG SATURDAY
MORNING. IFR POSSIBLE IN FOG AND STRATUS AGAIN EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING, AT LEAST IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MEK
NEAR TERM...MEK
SHORT TERM...MEK
LONG TERM...MEK
AVIATION...MEK
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