541
FXUS61 KRLX 060248
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1048 PM EDT FRI SEP 5 2025
SYNOPSIS
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. ACTIVE
WEATHER REMAINS FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 1047 PM FRIDAY...
MULTICELL CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL MOVING ACROSS OUR
AREA AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AT A NEARLY
PAINSTAKINGLY SLOW RATE OF SPEED. AS SUCH, EVERYTHING IS MOVING
SW TO NE ALONG THE FRONT DUE TO LACK OF FORCING. MOST OF THE
SEVERE THREAT HAS DIED DOWN WITH SUNSET, BUT THERE IS A HEALTHY
BOWING SEGMENT THAT HAS BEEN PERSISTENTLY SEVERE WITH ITS
JOURNEY ACROSS EASTERN KY. WILL HAVE TO WATCH HOW IT MAINTAINS
ITSELF ONCE IT APPROACHES PIKE COUNTY AS IT MAY PROVE TO BE
PROBLEMATIC(60 MPH WINDS AND QUARTER-SIZE HAIL) FOR MINGO,
MCDOWELL, OR OUR VA COUNTIES.
AS OF 444 PM FRIDAY...
A FEW CELLS ARE ALREADY STARTING TO POP UP ACROSS EASTERN KY AND
SOUTHERN OHIO ALONG A 2500 J/KG CAPE BOUNDARY. IT APPEARS THAT
SCATTERED CELLS WILL CONTINUE TO MANIFEST AND MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA FROM SW TO NE THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN EVENT WILL BE LATER
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT (7 PM TO 10 PM) WITH THE FRONT MOVING
THOUGH THE AREA FORCING A MESSY LINE OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE
AREA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
THE FRONT SLOWLY PROGRESSES EASTWARD. ANY CELLS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE RATHER QUICKLY GIVEN
THE INSTABILITY OF THE ATMOSPHERE. DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL
BE THE MAIN CONCERNS, BUT A CHANCE FOR A TORNADO EXISTS FOR ANY
CELLS THAT MOVE INTO CLEAR AIR AND TAP INTO 40-50KTS OF
EFFECTIVE SHEAR.
AS OF 140 PM FRIDAY...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES SLOWLY EAST TONIGHT. MEANWHILE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT, THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES DYNAMICALLY UNSTABLE WITH
DEEP SHEAR VALUES FROM 40 TO 60 KNOTS, HELICITIES EXCEEDING 200
M2/S2, SBCAPE EXCEEDING 2000 J/KG, AND PWATS AROUND REACHING 2
INCHES. GUIDANCE SHOWS BETTER MOISTURE THAN PREVIOUS DAYS WITH
THETA-E REACHING 346K AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THESE INGREDIENTS
COULD SUSTAIN STRONG UPDRAFTS AND ORGANIZED CONVECTION THIS
EVENING AND PART OF TONIGHT. LATEST CAMS SHOW DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING EAST AND WEST OF THE OH RIVER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, FOLLOWED BY A CONVECTIVE LINE LATER THIS
EVENING. SIMILAR CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS THE FRONT
MOVES SLOWLY EAST, SPREADING AT LEAST SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. THE AREA REMAINS HIGHLIGHTED UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BY SPC THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME STORMS COULD
BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL BEING THE MAIN
THREAT. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH THIS
EVENING. ADDED SEVERE WORDING TO THE FORECAST/GRIDS.
PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT,
WITH THE COLD FRONT STALLING EAST, ALONG THE APPALACHIANS BY
SATURDAY MORNING. POST RAIN DENSE FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP TO OBSTRUCT VISIBILITY OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
BY SATURDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING VORTICITY
MAXIMA ACROSS THE AREA, PROVIDING ADEQUATE FORCING TO SUSTAIN
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER,
LIMITED MOISTURE MAY SUPPRESS STRONGER STORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
WEST.
HOT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON IN THE UPPER 80S OR
LOWER 90S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. A MILD NIGHT IS ANTICIPATED WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE CONSIDERABLY
LOWER THAN TODAYS. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOWER 70S
ACROSS THE LOWLANDS, AND THE MID 60S NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 140 PM FRIDAY...
BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE MID-WEST, SOUTHEAST INTO
THE OH VALLEY AND WV BEHIND THE FRONT TO PROVIDE A LONG PERIOD OF
DRY WEATHER STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
COOL NIGHTS ARE ANTICIPATED UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM FLOW.
LOWS WILL DROP BELOW NORMAL LEVELS, INTO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS, RANGING INTO THE MID 40S NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS EVERY NIGHT
FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST
WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS.
HIGHS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL, GENERALLY IN
THE 70S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 140 PM FRIDAY...
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP WEATHER
CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT IS
PROGGED TO SINK SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY, BUT
MODELS DIFFER IN THEIR SOLUTIONS, BRINGING A DRY COLD FRONT.
BELIEVE IT IS TOO EARLY TO ASSESS THE EVOLUTION OF THIS NEW COLD
FRONT. SO, ACCEPTED A DRY SOLUTION FROM GENERAL GUIDANCE FOR
NOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOME TO NEAR NORMAL UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES THROUGH MOST PART OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 740 PM FRIDAY...
THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS WILL KICK OFF THIS TAF PERIOD AS A
COLD FRONT SLOWLY TRAVERSES THE AREA. IFR OR LOWER RESTRICTIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY ACTIVITY. DAMAGING WINDS, CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING, HAIL, AND THE SMALL CHANCE FOR A TORNADO WILL
BE THE MAIN RISKS. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST LOCATIONS
UNTIL BETWEEN ~06-09Z.
EXPECTING DENSE FOG AND LOW STRATUS TO FORM OVERNIGHT,
ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE RAINFALL THIS EVENING. IFR OR LOWER IS
EXPECTED FOR MULTIPLE SITES WITH THE FOG AND LOWER CEILINGS.
VFR WILL RESUME BY ~13-14Z SATURDAY, EXCEPT FOR SOME IFR OR
MVFR CIGS ALONG THE MOUNTAINS.
WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AROUND THUNDERSTORMS, BUT WILL HAVE A
SW'RLY BIAS THIS EVENING BEFORE SWITCHING NW'RLY OVERNIGHT.
WIND SPEEDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING, LOCATION, AND INTENSITY OF SHOWERS/STORMS
AND FOG/LOW STRATUS TONIGHT COULD VARY FROM THE FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SAT 09/06/25
UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M L M M L
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H M H H H H H L
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H L H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H L M H H M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H L L M M L
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M H H L H H
AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN FOG AND STRATUS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, MOSTLY IN
AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ARJ
NEAR TERM...ARJ/LTC
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...LTC
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