533
FXUS61 KRLX 061033
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
633 AM EDT SAT SEP 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
A SLOW PROGRESSING COLD FRONT WILL YIELD ONE MORE DAY OF SHOWERS
AND MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS TODAY BEFORE ITS DEPARTURE. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 110 AM SATURDAY...
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS DRAPED ALONG A COLD FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO GLIDE UP THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING AS THE BOUNDARY MAKES SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS THROUGH THE
REGION. CONVECTIVE TRENDS SINCE THE START OF SHIFT HAVE SHOWN
STORMS PETERING OUT AS THEY SAIL THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY INTO
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. AFTER A FEW INSTANCES OF STRONG WINDS AND
HAIL HERE IN OUR FORECAST AREA THIS PAST EVENING, MAIN CONCERNS
NOW WITH OVERNIGHT STORMS WILL BE THE ONGOING LIGHTNING AND
HEAVIER DOWNPOURS SKIRTING OVERHEAD.
BY DAYBREAK THIS MORNING, THE FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO BE
VENTURING INTO OUR HIGHER ELEVATION ZONES AS IT CONTINUES ITS
SLOW DEPARTURE TOWARDS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. ADDITIONAL
IMPULSES ATTACHED TO THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DRIVING THIS
COLD FRONT WILL ENCOURAGE RAIN TO CONTINUE TODAY FOR THE BULK
OF THE FORECAST AREA, WITH AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WE SHOULD SEE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TAPER DOWN QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON ONCE THE FRONT TREKS EAST OF THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS. THE SEVERE THREAT FOR OUR AREA WILL BE CAPPED AT A
GENERAL RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY, WITH THE BEST INSTABILITY
NOW RESIDING TO OUR EAST.
QUIETER WEATHER BEGINS TO SETTLE BACK INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
AS THE FIRST SIGNS OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
LESSENING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WRAP UP ALONG THE SPINE OF THE
MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT, LEAVING BEHIND ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TO PRODUCE RIVER VALLEY FOG INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 110 AM SATURDAY...
AFTER A SUCCESSION OF COLD FRONTS THAT SWEPT THROUGH THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS, SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL TAKE CENTER STAGE FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND
INTO THE START OF THE NEW WEEK. THIS FEATURE IS SLATED TO DROP
DOWN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ON SUNDAY AND PIVOT INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY BY MONDAY. DURING WHICH TIME, ANY LINGERING SHOWER OVER
THE MOUNTAINS WILL PETER OUT SUNDAY MORNING AS DRY AIR FILTERS
DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL BEGIN THE MULTI-DAY STRETCH
OF DRY WEATHER PROGGED FOR THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE REST OF
THE SHORT AND LONG TERM PERIODS.
WITH THE SURFACE HIGH RESIDING NEARLY OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY NIGHT,
SUFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING MAY YIELD PATCHY FROST TO SPROUT
WITHIN OUR MOUNTAINOUS RIVER VALLEYS HEADING INTO MONDAY
MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THESE LOCATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO
TOPPLE DOWN INTO THE UPPER 30S, WHILE THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL WAKE UP TO LOWS IN THE 40S. THIS COULD ALSO BECOME THE
CASE OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY FOR THE NORTHEAST WV
MOUNTAINS, BUT BECOMING CONTAINED TO THE HIGHER ZONES OF
SOUTHEAST RANDOLPH AND NORTHWEST POCAHONTAS COUNTIES AS
MODERATING TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE WITH THE ANTICIPATED
REPOSITIONING OF THE SURFACE HIGH. OTHERWISE, DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE 60S/70S FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOONS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 110 AM SATURDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TRIUMPHANT THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD, ADVERTISING MOSTLY DRY WEATHER FOR THE WORK
WEEK. THE CENTER OF THIS SURFACE FEATURE BEGINS TO SHIFT
EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE COURSE OF THE WEEK, ALLOWING FOR A
GRADUAL MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES BACK TOWARDS NORMAL READINGS
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT IS
CURRENTLY ANALYZED TO TRAIL DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION
LATE IN THE WORK WEEK, BUT SHOWING NO SIGNS OF ALTERING THE
PREVAILING DRY AND SEASONABLE FORECAST PROJECTED TO ROUND OUT
THE VALID FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 630 AM SATURDAY...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLICING THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE A SLOW EASTWARD JOURNEY TODAY. AT THE TIME OF WRITING,
A FEW TERMINALS WERE UNDER MVFR CONDITIONS FOR A VARIETY OF
STRATUS AND FOG, AND SHOULD REMAIN THE CASE AS THE SUN RISES
BEFORE BRANCHING ABOVE VFR THRESHOLDS.
TODAY'S SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY
CONTAINED ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND EAST OF THE BOUNDARY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BEGIN TO INFLUENCE THE AREA LATER THIS
EVENING, BRINGING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO AN END. ANOTHER
DECENT SIGNATURE FOR RIVER VALLEY FOG WAS NOTED FOR TONIGHT,
WITH MANY TAF SITES ANTICIPATED TO SEE SURFACE VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS AS A RESULT. IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS WERE INCLUDED
FOR THE CONCLUDING HOURS OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD.
LIGHT WINDS OUT OF THE WEST/SOUTHWEST ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING, LOCATION, AND INTENSITY OF SHOWERS/STORMS
COULD VARY FROM THE FORECAST THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
EDT 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
CRW CONSISTENCY L H H H M H H H M H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M H H H M M M H H H M M
EKN CONSISTENCY M M H M H M M M H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H M M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M H H H H M H H
AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN FOG AND STRATUS ALONG THE MOUNTAINS ON MONDAY
MORNING.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MEK
NEAR TERM...MEK
SHORT TERM...MEK
LONG TERM...MEK
AVIATION...MEK
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