374
FXUS61 KRLX 061510
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1110 AM EDT SAT SEP 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS TODAY WITH WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE AS IT PASSES. A COOL AFTERNOON IS
IN STORE WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY REACHING THE 60S AND 70S.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 1104 AM SATURDAY...
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY TRACKING THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS AT THE
TIME OF THIS WRITING, AND LINGERING PATCHY SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE
CAN BE SEEN BEHIND THE FRONT. LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS
EVENING, CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO BREAK FROM WEST TO EAST AS
DRIER AIR WORKS ITS WAY IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S
AREAWIDE.
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY, BUT
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY. EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
REACHING THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S, WHICH IS BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1104 AM SATURDAY...
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR FROST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE WEST VIRGINIA NORTHERN MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO THE LOWER 40S ALONG THE
RIDGETOPS WITH A FEW MOUNTAIN VALLEY LOCATIONS POTENTIALLY
REACHING THE UPPER 30S. HOWEVER, WIND SHOULD BE JUST BREEZY
ENOUGH TO PREVENT FROST FORMATION. THIS WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED, AND FROST ADVISORIES MAY BE ISSUED AT A LATER TIME IF
NEEDED.
A DRY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. 500-MB
HEIGHTS WILL SLOWLY RISE FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK, LEADING TO
A SLOW AND GRADUAL WARM UP. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALL-LIKE MONDAY
WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S AREAWIDE. BY TUESDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL
REACH THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 1104 AM SATURDAY...
THE STRETCH OF DRY AND COMFORTABLE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN CONTROL OVER THE NORTHEAST.
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THURSDAY OR
FRIDAY, BUT A LACK OF MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP OUR AREA DRY AS IT
CROSSES. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 80S AHEAD OF THE
FRONT DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK, AND BY THE END OF THE
WEEK, TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME MORE FALL-LIKE AGAIN WITH HIGHS
BACK IN THE 70S.
AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 630 AM SATURDAY...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLICING THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE A SLOW EASTWARD JOURNEY TODAY. AT THE TIME OF WRITING,
A FEW TERMINALS WERE UNDER MVFR CONDITIONS FOR A VARIETY OF
STRATUS AND FOG, AND SHOULD REMAIN THE CASE AS THE SUN RISES
BEFORE BRANCHING ABOVE VFR THRESHOLDS.
TODAY'S SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY
CONTAINED ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND EAST OF THE BOUNDARY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BEGIN TO INFLUENCE THE AREA LATER THIS
EVENING, BRINGING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO AN END. ANOTHER
DECENT SIGNATURE FOR RIVER VALLEY FOG WAS NOTED FOR TONIGHT,
WITH MANY TAF SITES ANTICIPATED TO SEE SURFACE VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS AS A RESULT. IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS WERE INCLUDED
FOR THE CONCLUDING HOURS OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD.
LIGHT WINDS OUT OF THE WEST/SOUTHWEST ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING, LOCATION, AND INTENSITY OF SHOWERS/STORMS
COULD VARY FROM THE FORECAST THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02
EDT 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
CRW CONSISTENCY H H M M M H H H H H H M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M L H H
EKN CONSISTENCY L H M M H H H H H H H M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN FOG AND STRATUS ALONG THE MOUNTAINS ON MONDAY
MORNING.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JMC
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...MEK
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