802
FXUS61 KRLX 062248
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
648 PM EDT SAT SEP 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
RAIN DIMINISHES THIS EVENING, WITH FOG AND LOW CLOUDS LIKELY
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS SUNNY SKIES FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK, WITH GRADUAL WARMING AFTER A COOL START TO THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 640 PM SATURDAY...
UPDATED POPS TO REFLECT THE LATEST ON THE GRADUALLY DECAYING
SHIELD OF DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. LINGERING
LOWLAND PRECIP SHOULD GENERALLY BE OVER BY AROUND 8PM, BUT WE
COULD HAVE SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
IMMEDIATE WESTERN SLOPES A BIT LATER INTO THE NIGHT. FOG AND/OR
LOW STRATUS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR WV AND VA COUNTIES, WHERE THE DRIER AIR
WILL TAKE A LONGER TIME TO WORK IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
AS OF 1104 AM SATURDAY...
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY TRACKING THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS AT THE
TIME OF THIS WRITING, AND LINGERING PATCHY SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE
CAN BE SEEN BEHIND THE FRONT. LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS
EVENING, CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO BREAK FROM WEST TO EAST AS
DRIER AIR WORKS ITS WAY IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S
AREAWIDE.
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY, BUT
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY. EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
REACHING THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S, WHICH IS BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1104 AM SATURDAY...
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR FROST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE WEST VIRGINIA NORTHERN MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO THE LOWER 40S ALONG THE
RIDGETOPS WITH A FEW MOUNTAIN VALLEY LOCATIONS POTENTIALLY
REACHING THE UPPER 30S. HOWEVER, WIND SHOULD BE JUST BREEZY
ENOUGH TO PREVENT FROST FORMATION. THIS WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED, AND FROST ADVISORIES MAY BE ISSUED AT A LATER TIME IF
NEEDED.
A DRY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. 500-MB
HEIGHTS WILL SLOWLY RISE FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK, LEADING TO
A SLOW AND GRADUAL WARM UP. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALL-LIKE MONDAY
WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S AREAWIDE. BY TUESDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL
REACH THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 1104 AM SATURDAY...
THE STRETCH OF DRY AND COMFORTABLE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN CONTROL OVER THE NORTHEAST.
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THURSDAY OR
FRIDAY, BUT A LACK OF MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP OUR AREA DRY AS IT
CROSSES. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 80S AHEAD OF THE
FRONT DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK, AND BY THE END OF THE
WEEK, TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME MORE FALL-LIKE AGAIN WITH HIGHS
BACK IN THE 70S.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 1201 PM SATURDAY...
MVFR WITH LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE REST OF
TODAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON, BRINGING SCATTERED LOW STRATUS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY
ALONG WITH IT. OVERNIGHT, CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BREAK, BUT DENSE
FOG WILL DEVELOP IN THE RIVER VALLEYS, LEADING TO IFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS MOST OF THE TAF SITES. THE LIKELY TIMING OF THESE
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE BETWEEN 04Z AND 15Z SUNDAY. THEN, VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN AREAWIDE FOR THE REST OF SUNDAY.
EXPECT LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS TODAY, TURNING CALM TO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. THEN, EXPECT LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
SUNDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND LOCATION OF RESTRICTIONS
ASSOCIATED WITH FOG AND LOW STRATUS MAY VARY THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
EDT 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H M H M M L L L
HTS CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H M L L
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H M H L L L M L L
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H M H H M M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M L L
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M H H M M L
AFTER 00Z MONDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN FOG AND STRATUS ALONG THE MOUNTAINS ON MONDAY
MORNING.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...FK/JMC
NEAR TERM...FK/JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...JMC
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