322
FXUS61 KRLX 071308
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
908 AM EDT SUN SEP 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE RULES THE ROOST TODAY INTO MUCH OF THE NEW WEEK,
YIELDING A STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER. COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE WAKE
OF A COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 908 AM SUNDAY...
NO CHANGES NECESSARY. FOG/STRATUS SLOWLY LIFTING ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING. ALLOWED DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE.
AS OF 310 AM SUNDAY...
OPTED TO ISSUES A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF KENTUCKY,
OHIO, AND WEST VIRGINIA WHERE VISIBILITIES HAVE CONSISTENTLY
BEEN REDUCED TO A QUARTER OF A MILE AMID OVERNIGHT CLEARING
SKIES. ELSEWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA, LOW HANGING STRATUS HAS
BEEN SLOW TO PUSH OUT OF THE AREA, BUT NEVERTHELESS COULD BE
PESKY TO EARLY MORNING TRAVEL, SO ELECTED TO ISSUES A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT IN THOSE AREAS BATTLING THE COMBINATION OF FOG
AND STRATUS. IF MORE LOCATIONS TUMBLE DOWN TO VISIBILITIES OF A
QUARTER MILE, AN EXPANSION OF THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE
WARRANTED.
AS OF 125 AM SUNDAY...
A QUIETER WEATHER PATTERN RESUMES TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
JOURNEYS DOWN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. FOR EARLY THIS MORNING,
LINGERING MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE THAT TOOK PLACE YESTERDAY IS NOW VENTURING EAST
OF THE MOUNTAINS. NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS IMAGERY REVEALS RIVER
VALLEY FOG FORMING IN PORTIONS OF THE TRI-STATE AREA BEHIND THIS
CLEARING LINE, WITH MORE LIKELY TO FORM IN OTHER RIVER VALLEY
BASINS EARLY THIS MORNING AS MORE CLEARING CONTINUES.
AFTER THE EROSION OF MORNING FOG OCCURS TODAY, PLEASANT WEATHER
WILL TAKE SHAPE AMID THE BUILDING SURFACE HIGH. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL PLATEAU IN THE UPPER 50S ACROSS OUR HIGHEST
MOUNTAIN ZONES AND INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR THE LOWLANDS.
FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS FIELDS MAY FORM DURING THE AFTERNOON, BUT
POSE NO CONCERNS FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT INTO SHOWERS OR
STORMS.
SUFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WILL YIELD
RIVER VALLEY FOG AND LOW STRATUS INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL TOPPLE DOWN INTO THE 40S THROUGH THE COURSE OF
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH SHELTERED MOUNTAIN VALLEYS POSSIBLY
DIPPING DOWN INTO THE UPPER 30S.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 125 AM SUNDAY...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ITS RESIDENCY OVER THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD ON MONDAY, YIELDING A CHILLY START TO THE
MORNING UNDER SUFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. A FEW SPOTS IN THE
SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE NORTHEAST WV MOUNTAINS COULD SEE
TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 30S WHILE THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL HOVER AROUND THE 40S. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TEMPERATURE TRENDS TO DETERMINE WHETHER
FROST ADVISORIES ARE WARRANTED, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW WITH
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SHIFT TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY,
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE FOR THE AFTERNOON INTO THE LOW 80S
ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES TO TRIUMPH DURING
THIS TIME.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 125 AM SUNDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE CENTER FOCUS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD,
NOW POSITIONED IN AN ELONGATED FASHION FROM THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS UP INTO NEW ENGLAND. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO
RULE THE ROOST THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE START OF NEXT
WEEKEND, WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING BACK TOWARDS THEIR
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. GLOBAL CONSENSUS
HOLDS STEADY WITH LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION ROUNDING OUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 635 AM SUNDAY...
A CONGLOMERATION OF DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG AND LOW LEVEL STRATUS
BLANKETS THE AREA THIS MORNING IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAY'S COLD
FRONT. AFTER A SLOW EROSION OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS THIS MORNING,
QUIET WEATHER WILL BE ON TAP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY UNDER
THE GUISE OF BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. DRY WEATHER AND SCATTERED
FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS WILL RULE THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AS A RESULT.
ANOTHER STRONG SIGNATURE FOR RIVER VALLEY FOG IS NOTED FOR
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, WHICH WILL ROUND OUT THE VALID TAF
PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WILL PREVAIL FOR THE
END OF THE WEEKEND.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF FOG/LOW LEVEL STRATUS EROSION MAY
VARY FROM THE FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
EDT 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
CRW CONSISTENCY M L H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY M L M H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY L H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY L L H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z MONDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AFTER MONDAY MORNING.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MEK
NEAR TERM...MEK
SHORT TERM...MEK
LONG TERM...MEK
AVIATION...MEK
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